UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#210
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#205
Pace70.8#152
Improvement-1.0#225

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#193
First Shot+0.7#158
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#273
Layup/Dunks-1.9#243
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#205
Freethrows+4.1#10
Improvement-1.3#260

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#234
First Shot+0.1#169
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#317
Layups/Dunks-3.6#283
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#25
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement+0.3#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 8.2% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 52.7% 67.3% 37.5%
.500 or above in Conference 14.7% 23.0% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.4% 9.0% 24.2%
First Four2.7% 2.8% 2.5%
First Round5.3% 6.9% 3.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 7
Quad 49 - 512 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 202   Western Carolina L 76-98 48%     0 - 1 -24.9 -9.8 -12.3
  Nov 27, 2020 238   @ UNC Asheville W 76-68 50%     1 - 1 +4.6 -3.7 +7.9
  Nov 28, 2020 273   Troy W 73-50 64%     2 - 1 +16.0 +8.3 +10.7
  Dec 07, 2020 158   @ East Carolina L 78-88 OT 30%     2 - 2 -8.1 -1.9 -4.9
  Dec 12, 2020 62   @ Mississippi L 58-78 9%     2 - 3 -8.9 -5.6 -3.9
  Dec 18, 2020 271   @ Norfolk St. W 80-72 57%     3 - 3 +2.9 +7.0 -3.9
  Dec 21, 2020 277   @ Campbell W 78-59 58%     4 - 3 +13.5 +3.5 +10.4
  Dec 23, 2020 344   Delaware St. W 87-63 93%     5 - 3 +4.0 -4.8 +6.8
  Jan 18, 2021 226   @ Towson L 69-72 47%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -5.6 -9.3 +3.8
  Jan 19, 2021 226   @ Towson L 74-78 47%     5 - 5 0 - 2 -6.6 -1.5 -5.2
  Jan 23, 2021 216   Delaware W 77-70 58%     6 - 5 1 - 2 +1.5 +2.9 -1.3
  Jan 24, 2021 216   Delaware L 62-67 58%     6 - 6 1 - 3 -10.5 -8.9 -1.8
  Jan 30, 2021 165   Hofstra L 72-73 51%    
  Jan 31, 2021 165   Hofstra L 72-73 51%    
  Feb 06, 2021 245   @ Elon W 70-69 46%    
  Feb 07, 2021 245   @ Elon W 70-69 46%    
  Feb 09, 2021 195   James Madison W 78-77 58%    
  Feb 13, 2021 267   William & Mary W 74-69 72%    
  Feb 14, 2021 267   William & Mary W 74-69 72%    
  Feb 20, 2021 148   @ Northeastern L 65-71 25%    
  Feb 21, 2021 148   @ Northeastern L 65-71 26%    
  Feb 25, 2021 203   College of Charleston W 70-69 59%    
  Feb 27, 2021 203   @ College of Charleston L 68-70 38%    
Projected Record 11 - 12 6 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.8 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.0 4.8 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 7.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 7.6 4.0 0.2 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 5.7 6.9 0.6 13.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.9 8.5 1.9 0.0 13.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 7.0 3.8 0.1 12.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 5.4 4.4 0.4 11.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 3.3 2.9 0.5 0.0 8.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 4.6 10.2 15.2 19.5 19.3 14.9 9.3 4.0 1.3 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 76.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 29.3% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 5.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.2% 19.6% 19.6% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.3% 23.1% 23.1% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
10-8 4.0% 18.2% 18.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 3.3
9-9 9.3% 13.8% 13.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 8.0
8-10 14.9% 10.7% 10.7% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.2 13.3
7-11 19.3% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.1 1.2 18.0
6-12 19.5% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 18.8
5-13 15.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 14.8
4-14 10.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.0
3-15 4.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-16 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.5 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 13.6 43.2 54.1 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.1%