UT Rio Grande Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#218
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#195
Pace74.3#66
Improvement+2.2#61

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#273
First Shot-6.4#317
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#50
Layup/Dunks-3.9#303
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#271
Freethrows+1.2#106
Improvement-0.7#225

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#161
First Shot+2.1#107
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#289
Layups/Dunks-1.8#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#11
Freethrows-2.7#311
Improvement+2.9#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.6% 10.7% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 85.2% 91.7% 70.3%
.500 or above in Conference 56.8% 60.1% 49.1%
Conference Champion 17.0% 18.7% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.3% 4.4% 4.2%
First Round7.6% 8.7% 5.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Away) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 410 - 213 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 10   @ Texas L 55-91 3%     0 - 1 -17.5 -13.9 -0.2
  Nov 28, 2020 213   Texas San Antonio W 81-64 56%     1 - 1 +11.8 +2.3 +9.6
  Dec 02, 2020 320   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 62-59 81%     2 - 1 -9.9 -13.1 +3.3
  Dec 06, 2020 120   @ Texas A&M L 68-81 20%     2 - 2 -7.8 -1.0 -6.5
  Dec 10, 2020 320   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 68-64 70%     3 - 2 -5.3 -11.7 +6.1
  Dec 21, 2020 176   Sam Houston St. L 66-69 47%     3 - 3 -5.9 -16.0 +10.4
  Jan 15, 2021 338   Dixie St. W 82-49 86%     4 - 3 1 - 0 +17.4 -2.1 +15.9
  Jan 16, 2021 338   Dixie St. W 72-65 86%     5 - 3 2 - 0 -8.6 -5.5 -3.3
  Jan 23, 2021 325   @ Tarleton St. W 75-68 70%    
  Feb 05, 2021 144   Grand Canyon L 68-71 43%    
  Feb 06, 2021 144   Grand Canyon L 68-71 42%    
  Feb 12, 2021 279   @ California Baptist W 75-73 52%    
  Feb 13, 2021 279   @ California Baptist W 75-73 51%    
  Feb 19, 2021 252   Seattle W 74-70 68%    
  Feb 20, 2021 252   Seattle W 74-70 68%    
  Feb 26, 2021 238   @ Utah Valley L 72-73 44%    
  Feb 27, 2021 238   @ Utah Valley L 72-73 43%    
  Mar 05, 2021 325   Tarleton St. W 77-67 85%    
  Mar 06, 2021 325   Tarleton St. W 77-67 84%    
Projected Record 12 - 7 8 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.3 7.1 5.0 1.4 17.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 7.7 11.9 5.0 0.8 26.4 2nd
3rd 1.0 7.3 10.2 2.1 0.0 20.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.3 9.1 2.1 0.0 18.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.6 5.5 1.4 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.3 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.7 7.4 13.2 18.9 20.3 17.3 12.1 5.7 1.4 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
11-5 86.6% 5.0    3.9 1.1
10-6 58.5% 7.1    2.8 3.7 0.6
9-7 19.2% 3.3    0.5 1.4 1.2 0.3
8-8 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Total 17.0% 17.0 8.4 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.4% 29.6% 29.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-5 5.7% 25.9% 25.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 4.3
10-6 12.1% 17.8% 17.8% 15.4 0.1 0.9 1.1 10.0
9-7 17.3% 12.9% 12.9% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.9 15.0
8-8 20.3% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.6 18.6
7-9 18.9% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 18.1
6-10 13.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.5 12.7
5-11 7.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.2
4-12 2.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-13 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 6.5 90.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.7 0.3 38.8 52.1 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.1%