Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#255
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#248
Pace73.3#87
Improvement-1.7#279

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#257
First Shot-3.3#260
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#181
Layup/Dunks-1.3#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#272
Freethrows+2.6#39
Improvement-2.0#300

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#241
First Shot-3.1#277
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#136
Layups/Dunks-3.5#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#42
Freethrows-4.1#334
Improvement+0.3#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.2% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 17.5% 23.4% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 42.8% 53.1% 24.1%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 1.6% 14.4%
First Four3.5% 3.7% 3.2%
First Round2.9% 3.3% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Away) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 53 - 7
Quad 47 - 610 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 84   San Francisco W 76-68 13%     1 - 0 +14.6 +5.0 +9.4
  Nov 28, 2020 233   Illinois St. L 72-82 46%     1 - 1 -14.7 -8.4 -5.7
  Nov 29, 2020 23   @ Ohio St. L 64-74 3%     1 - 2 +5.8 -1.9 +7.5
  Dec 03, 2020 64   North Carolina St. L 59-90 10%     1 - 3 -22.6 -12.8 -9.0
  Dec 21, 2020 124   Vermont W 73-65 24%     2 - 3 1 - 0 +9.6 -0.3 +9.8
  Dec 22, 2020 124   Vermont L 53-62 24%     2 - 4 1 - 1 -7.4 -19.0 +11.5
  Dec 27, 2020 218   @ Stony Brook L 58-73 37%     2 - 5 1 - 2 -17.3 -11.7 -6.1
  Dec 28, 2020 218   @ Stony Brook L 64-71 37%     2 - 6 1 - 3 -9.3 -8.2 -1.0
  Jan 02, 2021 226   NJIT L 67-73 50%     2 - 7 -11.9 -9.6 -2.1
  Jan 03, 2021 226   NJIT W 74-60 50%     3 - 7 +8.1 +3.1 +5.7
  Jan 09, 2021 231   Hartford W 71-62 52%     4 - 7 2 - 3 +2.8 -2.5 +5.4
  Jan 10, 2021 231   Hartford L 58-75 52%     4 - 8 2 - 4 -23.2 -15.0 -8.8
  Jan 16, 2021 329   @ Binghamton W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 17, 2021 329   @ Binghamton W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 23, 2021 169   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-72 43%    
  Jan 24, 2021 169   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 69-72 43%    
  Jan 30, 2021 237   @ Albany L 69-71 36%    
  Jan 31, 2021 237   @ Albany L 69-71 36%    
  Feb 18, 2021 311   Maine W 67-61 74%    
  Feb 19, 2021 311   Maine W 67-61 74%    
  Feb 27, 2021 257   @ New Hampshire L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 28, 2021 257   @ New Hampshire L 69-71 39%    
Projected Record 9 - 13 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 1st
2nd 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.9 3.9 0.7 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 6.7 7.1 1.1 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 7.2 9.9 1.7 0.0 19.6 5th
6th 0.5 6.4 9.7 2.9 0.0 19.6 6th
7th 0.6 5.9 9.1 3.2 0.1 18.9 7th
8th 0.6 3.6 4.9 1.4 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.5 9th
Total 0.2 1.7 5.2 11.4 17.7 20.8 20.2 13.1 6.8 2.3 0.4 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 50.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 17.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.4% 21.4% 21.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.3
11-5 2.3% 11.5% 11.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.1
10-6 6.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.2 0.6 6.0
9-7 13.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.9 0.1 1.0 12.0
8-8 20.2% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 19.1
7-9 20.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.6 20.2
6-10 17.7% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.5 17.3
5-11 11.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 11.1
4-12 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 4.2 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 14.6 41.1 58.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%