Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#47
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#77
Pace72.4#112
Improvement+8.1#2

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#93
First Shot+1.4#147
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#85
Layup/Dunks+3.2#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#201
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement+3.0#28

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#12
First Shot+5.0#42
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#21
Layups/Dunks+4.7#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#151
Freethrows+1.2#105
Improvement+5.0#2
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 2.4% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 5.6% 7.8% 1.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.4% 62.7% 45.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.0% 48.0% 29.3%
Average Seed 9.4 9.1 10.0
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 26.5% 31.9% 16.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.8% 5.8% 5.7%
First Round53.5% 59.7% 42.3%
Second Round24.8% 28.5% 18.3%
Sweet Sixteen7.7% 9.0% 5.4%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.3% 1.8%
Final Four0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 23 - 35 - 6
Quad 38 - 212 - 8
Quad 48 - 020 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 72   Virginia Commonwealth L 69-85 63%     0 - 1 -8.6 -0.6 -7.2
  Nov 26, 2020 102   South Dakota St. L 59-83 72%     0 - 2 -19.3 -14.9 -4.3
  Nov 27, 2020 148   Northern Iowa W 82-71 82%     1 - 2 +12.2 +2.3 +9.1
  Dec 05, 2020 34   BYU L 64-67 52%     1 - 3 +7.2 -6.7 +14.1
  Dec 18, 2020 195   Northern Colorado W 63-50 91%     2 - 3 +8.7 -2.7 +13.1
  Dec 21, 2020 324   San Jose St. W 107-62 98%     3 - 3 1 - 0 +31.1 +13.7 +12.3
  Dec 23, 2020 324   San Jose St. W 85-52 98%     4 - 3 2 - 0 +19.1 -8.6 +22.8
  Dec 31, 2020 268   @ Air Force W 83-48 92%     5 - 3 3 - 0 +30.3 +16.8 +17.5
  Jan 02, 2021 268   @ Air Force W 72-53 92%     6 - 3 4 - 0 +14.3 +2.7 +13.3
  Jan 06, 2021 233   New Mexico W 77-45 92%     7 - 3 5 - 0 +27.4 +2.1 +24.7
  Jan 08, 2021 233   New Mexico W 82-46 92%     8 - 3 6 - 0 +31.4 +8.0 +23.1
  Jan 14, 2021 43   San Diego St. W 57-45 56%     9 - 3 7 - 0 +21.3 -3.6 +26.1
  Jan 16, 2021 43   San Diego St. W 64-59 56%     10 - 3 8 - 0 +14.3 -0.4 +14.9
  Jan 19, 2021 71   Colorado St. W 83-64 68%     11 - 3 9 - 0 +25.0 +10.6 +14.0
  Jan 21, 2021 71   Colorado St. L 76-84 68%     11 - 4 9 - 1 -2.0 +2.0 -3.7
  Jan 25, 2021 113   @ UNLV W 72-67 64%    
  Jan 27, 2021 113   @ UNLV W 72-67 64%    
  Feb 04, 2021 183   @ Fresno St. W 71-60 82%    
  Feb 06, 2021 183   @ Fresno St. W 71-60 82%    
  Feb 11, 2021 181   Wyoming W 81-67 93%    
  Feb 13, 2021 181   Wyoming W 81-67 93%    
  Feb 17, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 69-72 36%    
  Feb 19, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 69-72 36%    
  Feb 20, 2021 36   @ Boise St. L 69-72 36%    
  Feb 26, 2021 99   Nevada W 77-69 80%    
  Feb 28, 2021 99   Nevada W 77-69 79%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 16 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 6.1 10.5 7.0 1.7 26.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.0 17.6 17.5 6.5 0.6 51.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 7.4 3.8 0.4 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 7.5 15.9 22.6 24.0 17.0 7.6 1.7 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
19-1 92.4% 7.0    5.9 1.1
18-2 61.7% 10.5    6.4 3.9 0.1
17-3 25.4% 6.1    2.0 3.3 0.8
16-4 5.2% 1.2    0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.5% 26.5 16.1 8.9 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.7% 99.9% 43.8% 56.0% 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
19-1 7.6% 95.2% 39.5% 55.7% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 92.1%
18-2 17.0% 85.4% 33.5% 51.9% 8.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.2 3.5 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.5 78.0%
17-3 24.0% 67.3% 28.8% 38.5% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.3 5.0 4.1 1.5 0.1 7.8 54.1%
16-4 22.6% 47.4% 24.7% 22.7% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.9 30.1%
15-5 15.9% 28.9% 18.6% 10.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.3 12.8%
14-6 7.5% 16.2% 12.4% 3.8% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.3 4.3%
13-7 2.8% 10.5% 10.3% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.2%
12-8 0.8% 5.9% 5.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-9 0.2% 6.3% 6.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 56.4% 26.1% 30.3% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.9 6.6 9.1 12.1 11.7 6.6 0.8 0.0 43.6 41.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 2.8 9.5 30.5 35.4 20.3 3.8 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 5.0 11.5 19.0 35.6 23.6 9.2 0.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 5.7 0.4 2.0 11.6 28.9 32.5 18.5 4.4 1.6