Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#234
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#243
Pace73.7#79
Improvement+3.0#37

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#246
First Shot-1.2#206
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#267
Layup/Dunks+3.3#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#190
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#322
Freethrows+1.6#74
Improvement+0.8#104

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#228
First Shot+0.8#150
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#326
Layups/Dunks-0.8#204
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#26
Freethrows-2.8#315
Improvement+2.1#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 14.8% 9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 28.4% 64.1% 25.3%
.500 or above in Conference 70.2% 77.6% 69.5%
Conference Champion 19.4% 23.8% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.7% 2.5% 4.9%
First Round7.6% 14.2% 7.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Away) - 8.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 22 - 8
Quad 47 - 39 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 33   @ BYU L 60-82 5%     0 - 1 -8.1 -10.5 +4.0
  Dec 09, 2020 195   Southern Utah L 71-81 49%     0 - 2 -14.5 -10.9 -3.2
  Dec 12, 2020 179   Wyoming L 88-93 44%     0 - 3 -8.1 +6.4 -14.2
  Dec 15, 2020 70   @ Utah L 67-75 9%     0 - 4 +1.8 -2.4 +4.3
  Jan 02, 2021 154   @ Weber St. L 62-70 24%     0 - 5 -5.4 -12.6 +7.5
  Jan 08, 2021 275   California Baptist W 77-50 66%     1 - 5 1 - 0 +17.9 -0.4 +19.3
  Jan 09, 2021 275   California Baptist W 81-77 66%     2 - 5 2 - 0 -5.1 -0.7 -4.5
  Jan 15, 2021 262   @ Seattle W 93-92 OT 47%     3 - 5 3 - 0 -3.1 -1.8 -1.6
  Jan 23, 2021 80   @ St. John's L 71-85 8%    
  Jan 29, 2021 327   Tarleton St. W 77-68 85%    
  Jan 30, 2021 327   Tarleton St. W 77-68 84%    
  Feb 12, 2021 331   Dixie St. W 75-65 84%    
  Feb 13, 2021 331   Dixie St. W 75-65 85%    
  Feb 19, 2021 119   @ New Mexico St. L 62-72 16%    
  Feb 20, 2021 119   @ New Mexico St. L 62-72 17%    
  Feb 26, 2021 210   UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-72 56%    
  Feb 27, 2021 210   UT Rio Grande Valley W 73-72 57%    
  Mar 05, 2021 158   @ Grand Canyon L 68-75 24%    
  Mar 06, 2021 158   @ Grand Canyon L 68-75 24%    
Projected Record 8 - 11 8 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.7 8.3 5.2 1.6 0.1 19.4 1st
2nd 0.9 9.5 17.1 5.6 0.8 0.0 33.9 2nd
3rd 1.0 6.3 11.0 3.0 0.1 21.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 5.4 9.8 3.8 19.5 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 2.7 0.9 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.2 9.2 17.9 24.6 23.7 14.0 6.0 1.6 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
12-4 99.7% 1.6    1.5 0.1
11-5 86.7% 5.2    4.3 1.0
10-6 59.2% 8.3    3.4 4.1 0.8
9-7 15.5% 3.7    0.3 1.4 1.7 0.2
8-8 1.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2
Total 19.4% 19.4 9.6 6.7 2.6 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.1% 0.1
12-4 1.6% 33.0% 33.0% 14.7 0.2 0.4 1.1
11-5 6.0% 29.0% 29.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 4.3
10-6 14.0% 17.5% 17.5% 15.6 0.1 0.9 1.5 11.6
9-7 23.7% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.3 2.0 21.5
8-8 24.6% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 1.8 22.8
7-9 17.9% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.8 17.1
6-10 9.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 9.0
5-11 2.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.1
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.5 2.5 6.9 90.1 0.0%