Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#66
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#55
Pace73.5#81
Improvement-4.3#339

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#140
First Shot+1.9#123
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#222
Layup/Dunks+5.1#28
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#209
Freethrows+1.2#90
Improvement-4.2#342

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#15
First Shot+8.8#3
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#266
Layups/Dunks+3.4#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#21
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement-0.1#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.7% 3.0% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.7% 44.0% 23.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.0% 36.2% 18.4%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 76.5% 80.6% 45.8%
Conference Champion 8.8% 9.7% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.5% 9.6% 8.7%
First Round36.2% 38.6% 18.0%
Second Round14.1% 15.0% 6.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 4.1% 1.4%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: La Salle (Home) - 88.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 5
Quad 24 - 35 - 7
Quad 36 - 111 - 8
Quad 46 - 018 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 54   Utah St. W 85-69 42%     1 - 0 +26.6 +17.2 +8.6
  Nov 26, 2020 16   West Virginia L 66-78 26%     1 - 1 +3.3 -4.3 +8.4
  Nov 27, 2020 55   Memphis W 70-59 43%     2 - 1 +21.6 +4.4 +16.9
  Dec 02, 2020 50   @ Penn St. L 69-72 36%     2 - 2 +9.4 -2.5 +12.1
  Dec 05, 2020 227   Mount St. Mary's W 60-42 91%     3 - 2 +11.8 -7.7 +21.3
  Dec 09, 2020 317   N.C. A&T W 95-59 96%     4 - 2 +23.9 +9.3 +12.2
  Dec 12, 2020 160   Old Dominion W 77-54 83%     5 - 2 +21.5 +4.4 +16.8
  Dec 15, 2020 225   Western Carolina W 93-68 91%     6 - 2 +18.9 +11.8 +6.1
  Dec 22, 2020 184   James Madison W 82-81 87%     7 - 2 -2.4 -6.2 +3.6
  Dec 30, 2020 212   @ Saint Joseph's W 80-64 84%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +14.0 +0.1 +13.0
  Jan 06, 2021 144   @ George Mason W 66-61 71%     9 - 2 2 - 0 +7.8 -1.3 +9.3
  Jan 09, 2021 70   Rhode Island L 68-83 59%     9 - 3 2 - 1 -8.6 -5.2 -2.1
  Jan 13, 2021 202   @ George Washington W 84-77 82%     10 - 3 3 - 1 +5.8 -5.1 +9.8
  Jan 20, 2021 60   @ St. Bonaventure L 54-70 38%     10 - 4 3 - 2 -4.3 -9.3 +4.3
  Jan 23, 2021 81   Dayton W 66-43 63%     11 - 4 4 - 2 +28.4 +0.5 +29.5
  Jan 30, 2021 176   La Salle W 75-64 88%    
  Jan 31, 2021 283   Fordham W 68-50 96%    
  Feb 03, 2021 70   @ Rhode Island L 69-70 41%    
  Feb 07, 2021 115   @ Duquesne W 69-66 57%    
  Feb 12, 2021 59   Richmond W 73-72 56%    
  Feb 20, 2021 144   George Mason W 70-61 83%    
  Feb 23, 2021 47   Saint Louis L 70-71 54%    
  Feb 27, 2021 63   @ Davidson L 67-69 38%    
  Mar 03, 2021 81   @ Dayton L 66-67 44%    
Projected Record 17 - 7 10 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.2 4.7 1.8 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 2.4 9.0 2.7 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.7 9.1 6.1 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.1 5.8 10.4 1.0 17.2 4th
5th 1.5 11.1 3.3 0.0 15.9 5th
6th 0.2 6.8 5.3 0.2 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 6.0 0.6 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 1.3 3.9 8th
9th 0.5 1.6 0.1 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.5 1.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.5 6.1 15.7 23.5 25.5 18.3 7.5 1.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 1.8    1.2 0.6
12-6 63.3% 4.7    1.3 2.3 1.0 0.2
11-7 12.0% 2.2    0.2 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 2.6 3.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.8% 98.9% 31.4% 67.4% 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3%
12-6 7.5% 93.3% 22.8% 70.5% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.5 91.3%
11-7 18.3% 72.5% 18.3% 54.1% 10.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 3.7 3.5 1.6 0.1 5.0 66.3%
10-8 25.5% 47.0% 12.0% 35.0% 10.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.6 4.0 3.7 0.3 13.5 39.8%
9-9 23.5% 25.1% 8.7% 16.4% 11.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 0.5 17.6 18.0%
8-10 15.7% 10.0% 4.8% 5.3% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 14.2 5.5%
7-11 6.1% 3.9% 2.8% 1.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 5.9 1.2%
6-12 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 41.7% 11.7% 30.0% 10.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 1.8 3.1 5.4 8.3 10.1 9.3 1.1 0.0 58.3 34.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 3.7 9.1 29.1 43.6 16.4 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 5.6 2.9 20.0 22.9 31.4 17.1 2.9 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 97.6% 6.3 9.5 19.0 23.8 31.0 7.1 7.1