Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#43
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#21
Pace64.9#290
Improvement-0.8#218

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#62
First Shot+3.9#77
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#101
Layup/Dunks-0.5#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#126
Freethrows+2.3#47
Improvement-0.8#237

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#35
First Shot+4.9#43
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#98
Layups/Dunks+2.2#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#88
Freethrows+2.1#59
Improvement+0.0#183
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 7.9% 9.0% 2.4%
Top 6 Seed 21.6% 24.2% 9.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.2% 77.9% 62.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.1% 75.9% 60.4%
Average Seed 7.9 7.8 8.8
.500 or above 99.2% 99.6% 97.1%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 90.0% 71.8%
Conference Champion 19.7% 22.2% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.7% 5.3% 7.9%
First Round72.3% 75.3% 58.2%
Second Round37.5% 40.4% 23.3%
Sweet Sixteen13.4% 14.7% 7.2%
Elite Eight5.3% 5.9% 2.5%
Final Four1.9% 2.1% 0.9%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Boston College (Home) - 82.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 6
Quad 24 - 38 - 8
Quad 36 - 114 - 9
Quad 44 - 019 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 239   Radford W 77-62 94%     1 - 0 +8.2 +4.5 +4.3
  Nov 28, 2020 4   Villanova W 81-73 OT 25%     2 - 0 +26.2 +12.6 +13.5
  Nov 29, 2020 100   South Florida W 76-58 73%     3 - 0 +22.9 +13.8 +10.4
  Dec 03, 2020 227   VMI W 64-57 94%     4 - 0 +1.1 -12.9 +14.3
  Dec 08, 2020 53   Penn St. L 55-75 61%     4 - 1 -11.6 -8.1 -6.3
  Dec 15, 2020 37   Clemson W 66-60 56%     5 - 1 1 - 0 +15.8 +4.1 +12.0
  Dec 19, 2020 322   Coppin St. W 97-57 98%     6 - 1 +26.9 +14.4 +9.9
  Dec 21, 2020 303   Longwood W 84-58 97%     7 - 1 +15.4 +11.5 +5.4
  Dec 29, 2020 79   Miami (FL) W 80-78 72%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +7.3 +5.3 +1.8
  Jan 06, 2021 35   @ Louisville L 71-73 42%     8 - 2 2 - 1 +11.3 +6.7 +4.5
  Jan 10, 2021 83   Notre Dame W 77-63 72%     9 - 2 3 - 1 +19.2 +7.1 +12.9
  Jan 12, 2021 46   Duke W 74-67 57%     10 - 2 4 - 1 +16.4 +4.7 +11.7
  Jan 17, 2021 109   @ Wake Forest W 64-60 69%     11 - 2 5 - 1 +10.1 -1.6 +12.1
  Jan 20, 2021 108   Boston College W 75-67 83%    
  Jan 23, 2021 55   @ Syracuse L 70-71 44%    
  Jan 27, 2021 83   @ Notre Dame W 72-69 56%    
  Jan 30, 2021 6   Virginia L 58-62 39%    
  Feb 03, 2021 60   @ Pittsburgh W 68-67 46%    
  Feb 06, 2021 79   @ Miami (FL) W 68-65 55%    
  Feb 09, 2021 16   Florida St. L 71-73 46%    
  Feb 13, 2021 35   Louisville W 67-66 60%    
  Feb 16, 2021 32   @ North Carolina L 67-70 36%    
  Feb 20, 2021 16   @ Florida St. L 69-75 25%    
  Feb 23, 2021 61   Georgia Tech W 69-65 68%    
  Feb 27, 2021 109   Wake Forest W 75-66 81%    
  Mar 05, 2021 66   @ North Carolina St. W 71-70 50%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 12 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.4 5.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 19.7 1st
2nd 0.4 4.6 8.2 5.0 1.0 0.0 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 8.1 3.7 0.8 15.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 7.0 4.9 0.6 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.5 4.2 5.0 0.9 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.7 1.1 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.4 3.4 1.7 0.2 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.7 8.1 12.6 16.9 18.8 16.0 12.2 6.8 2.7 0.7 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.1
16-4 98.6% 2.7    2.4 0.3
15-5 85.9% 5.8    4.0 1.6 0.2
14-6 52.2% 6.4    2.8 2.6 0.9 0.0 0.0
13-7 22.1% 3.5    0.6 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
12-8 2.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 10.6 5.9 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 40.8% 59.2% 1.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.7% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 2.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 3.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.8% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 4.8 0.1 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.2% 99.8% 12.7% 87.2% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 2.5 3.1 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.8%
13-7 16.0% 98.0% 10.2% 87.9% 7.5 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.8 4.2 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 97.8%
12-8 18.8% 89.7% 6.6% 83.1% 8.9 0.3 0.6 1.8 4.1 4.6 3.1 2.0 0.4 1.9 89.0%
11-9 16.9% 75.6% 4.9% 70.8% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.5 3.2 3.5 1.6 0.1 4.1 74.4%
10-10 12.6% 47.0% 1.9% 45.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.9 1.8 0.3 6.7 45.9%
9-11 8.1% 15.6% 1.7% 13.9% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 6.9 14.2%
8-12 3.7% 2.7% 0.5% 2.2% 12.2 0.1 0.0 3.6 2.2%
7-13 1.1% 1.1
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 75.2% 7.5% 67.6% 7.9 0.2 0.8 2.6 4.3 6.1 7.6 9.7 11.5 10.9 8.4 7.9 4.4 0.6 0.0 24.8 73.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 48.7 51.3