Weber St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#174
Expected Predictive Rating-2.8#198
Pace74.0#75
Improvement+0.1#172

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#203
First Shot-1.6#212
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks+0.0#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#139
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#207
Freethrows-1.2#255
Improvement-0.5#216

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#166
First Shot+1.1#139
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#248
Layups/Dunks+1.2#141
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#253
Freethrows+2.6#41
Improvement+0.6#131
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 8.5% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 15.1
.500 or above 78.5% 81.1% 52.9%
.500 or above in Conference 51.8% 53.4% 36.1%
Conference Champion 8.8% 9.3% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 2.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round8.0% 8.4% 3.6%
Second Round0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Home) - 90.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 410 - 311 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 13, 2020 44   @ Boise St. L 59-70 10%     0 - 1 +1.9 -7.6 +9.4
  Dec 18, 2020 283   @ Portland St. W 94-66 67%     1 - 1 1 - 0 +22.2 +4.3 +13.5
  Dec 20, 2020 283   @ Portland St. L 72-74 67%     1 - 2 1 - 1 -7.8 -8.7 +1.0
  Dec 23, 2020 40   BYU L 79-87 12%     1 - 3 +3.3 +6.8 -3.1
  Jan 02, 2021 242   Utah Valley W 70-62 70%     2 - 3 +1.3 -8.8 +9.8
  Jan 17, 2021 324   Tarleton St. W 79-66 91%    
  Jan 21, 2021 178   Southern Utah W 78-76 62%    
  Jan 23, 2021 178   @ Southern Utah L 76-78 39%    
  Jan 28, 2021 335   @ Idaho W 78-67 81%    
  Jan 30, 2021 335   @ Idaho W 78-67 80%    
  Feb 04, 2021 182   Montana St. W 72-70 62%    
  Feb 06, 2021 182   Montana St. W 72-70 63%    
  Feb 11, 2021 165   @ Montana L 65-68 36%    
  Feb 13, 2021 165   @ Montana L 65-68 36%    
  Feb 18, 2021 297   Northern Arizona W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 20, 2021 297   Northern Arizona W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 25, 2021 217   @ Sacramento St. W 66-65 48%    
  Feb 27, 2021 217   @ Sacramento St. W 66-65 48%    
  Mar 04, 2021 203   Northern Colorado W 70-67 66%    
  Mar 06, 2021 203   Northern Colorado W 70-67 66%    
Projected Record 11 - 9 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.9 3.7 2.4 0.6 8.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 4.8 2.5 0.3 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 6.0 3.2 0.3 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.3 5.1 0.5 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.5 6.9 1.0 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.6 6.9 1.9 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.8 2.7 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.8 4.5 2.8 0.2 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.9 0.3 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.2 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.5 9.4 12.9 15.2 16.9 14.5 10.4 6.6 2.8 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
14-6 88.4% 2.4    1.8 0.5 0.1
13-7 56.4% 3.7    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-8 18.1% 1.9    0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-9 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.2 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.6% 100.0% 100.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.8% 88.2% 88.2% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.3
13-7 6.6% 52.9% 52.9% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.4 3.1
12-8 10.4% 14.1% 14.1% 15.1 0.2 0.9 0.4 9.0
11-9 14.5% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 14.5
10-10 16.9% 16.9
9-11 15.2% 15.2
8-12 12.9% 12.9
7-13 9.4% 9.4
6-14 5.5% 5.5
5-15 3.2% 3.2
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.0 0.8 92.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 12.2 0.9 1.7 3.4 3.4 13.7 29.9 35.0 11.1 0.9