Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#82
Expected Predictive Rating+12.3#45
Pace68.8#202
Improvement-0.7#217

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#75
First Shot+2.6#104
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#76
Layup/Dunks+3.0#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#313
Freethrows+4.8#3
Improvement-1.6#273

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#102
First Shot+0.8#149
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#47
Layups/Dunks+0.3#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#213
Freethrows+1.1#105
Improvement+0.8#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.5% 42.7% 29.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.6% 23.0% 9.8%
Average Seed 11.1 11.0 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.3%
Conference Champion 71.5% 76.1% 49.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.3% 8.9% 5.2%
First Round35.4% 37.3% 26.5%
Second Round10.0% 10.8% 6.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 2.6% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 2
Quad 24 - 15 - 4
Quad 36 - 312 - 7
Quad 410 - 122 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 143   Northern Iowa W 93-87 71%     1 - 0 +7.2 +8.4 -1.8
  Nov 26, 2020 55   Memphis W 75-69 37%     2 - 0 +16.6 +10.6 +5.9
  Nov 27, 2020 16   West Virginia L 64-70 22%     2 - 1 +9.3 +2.4 +6.5
  Dec 01, 2020 37   @ Louisville L 54-75 27%     2 - 2 -7.6 -12.7 +5.0
  Dec 06, 2020 348   Mississippi Valley W 96-69 99.8%    3 - 2 -4.8 -0.9 -6.1
  Dec 10, 2020 203   Gardner-Webb W 86-84 86%     4 - 2 -2.7 +3.0 -5.8
  Dec 13, 2020 70   Rhode Island W 68-65 52%     5 - 2 +9.4 +1.2 +8.3
  Dec 19, 2020 8   @ Alabama W 73-71 13%     6 - 2 +21.3 +5.2 +16.0
  Dec 22, 2020 305   Tennessee Tech W 88-68 94%     7 - 2 +9.1 +6.1 +2.2
  Jan 01, 2021 164   @ Charlotte W 67-63 71%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +5.3 -0.5 +6.0
  Jan 02, 2021 164   @ Charlotte L 71-75 OT 71%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -2.7 -2.6 +0.1
  Jan 08, 2021 101   Louisiana Tech W 66-64 65%     9 - 3 2 - 1 +5.0 -3.9 +9.0
  Jan 09, 2021 101   Louisiana Tech L 58-63 65%     9 - 4 2 - 2 -2.0 -6.5 +4.2
  Jan 15, 2021 83   Marshall W 81-73 57%     10 - 4 3 - 2 +13.4 +5.3 +7.5
  Jan 17, 2021 83   @ Marshall W 69-67 43%     11 - 4 4 - 2 +10.7 +1.7 +9.1
  Jan 23, 2021 273   @ Middle Tennessee W 82-67 87%     12 - 4 5 - 2 +9.7 +13.8 -3.7
  Jan 24, 2021 273   @ Middle Tennessee W 68-52 87%     13 - 4 6 - 2 +10.7 -0.8 +11.9
  Jan 29, 2021 160   Old Dominion W 72-63 83%    
  Jan 30, 2021 160   Old Dominion W 72-63 82%    
  Feb 05, 2021 177   @ Florida Atlantic W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 06, 2021 177   @ Florida Atlantic W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 12, 2021 196   Rice W 79-68 87%    
  Feb 13, 2021 196   Rice W 79-68 87%    
  Feb 19, 2021 91   @ North Texas L 65-66 43%    
  Feb 20, 2021 91   @ North Texas L 65-66 44%    
  Feb 26, 2021 219   Florida International W 82-69 91%    
  Feb 27, 2021 219   Florida International W 82-69 90%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.8 17.2 25.1 18.4 5.8 71.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 8.2 6.6 1.8 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.1 2.0 0.1 5.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 2.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 7.1 15.2 23.9 26.9 18.4 5.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 5.8    5.8
15-3 100.0% 18.4    17.1 1.2
14-4 93.2% 25.1    19.1 5.9 0.1
13-5 72.0% 17.2    7.4 7.7 1.9 0.1
12-6 31.6% 4.8    0.7 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0
11-7 3.8% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 71.5% 71.5 50.2 17.0 3.7 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 5.8% 87.5% 41.0% 46.5% 8.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.7 78.8%
15-3 18.4% 64.3% 31.8% 32.5% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 4.4 3.3 0.2 6.6 47.6%
14-4 26.9% 44.4% 27.1% 17.3% 11.6 0.1 0.9 3.6 6.6 0.8 15.0 23.7%
13-5 23.9% 29.5% 21.8% 7.7% 11.9 0.2 1.4 4.4 0.9 16.8 9.9%
12-6 15.2% 20.0% 18.2% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.9 0.1 12.1 2.3%
11-7 7.1% 16.7% 16.5% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 5.9 0.3%
10-8 2.1% 13.5% 12.6% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.8 1.1%
9-9 0.6% 11.9% 11.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.5% 25.0% 15.5% 11.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 2.2 4.7 10.4 17.1 3.6 0.1 59.6 20.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 7.1 2.9 13.0 18.4 25.9 19.7 17.2 2.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 82.9% 9.9 1.7 9.4 17.9 24.8 20.5 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 79.7% 10.0 0.7 6.3 18.9 28.0 21.0 4.9