Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#56
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#44
Pace71.5#139
Improvement+3.4#28

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#45
First Shot+4.2#65
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#66
Layup/Dunks+1.3#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#149
Freethrows+3.2#23
Improvement+1.4#75

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#82
First Shot+7.6#11
After Offensive Rebounds-4.0#341
Layups/Dunks+6.7#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#259
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
Freethrows+2.4#43
Improvement+2.0#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 3.2% 5.7% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.0% 13.2% 3.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.1% 68.7% 45.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 50.1% 63.4% 39.2%
Average Seed 8.9 8.5 9.5
.500 or above 94.7% 98.2% 91.8%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 97.7% 90.4%
Conference Champion 14.0% 21.3% 7.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.2% 6.1% 6.3%
First Round52.9% 65.3% 42.4%
Second Round24.0% 30.4% 18.5%
Sweet Sixteen7.0% 9.9% 4.5%
Elite Eight2.4% 3.7% 1.3%
Final Four0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Championship Game0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 46.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 37 - 114 - 9
Quad 42 - 016 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 159   Oral Roberts W 85-80 85%     1 - 0 +3.5 +5.6 -2.2
  Dec 06, 2020 36   Missouri L 62-72 50%     1 - 1 -0.1 -2.0 +1.4
  Dec 12, 2020 31   Oklahoma St. L 64-67 47%     1 - 2 +7.5 -3.6 +11.2
  Dec 15, 2020 76   @ Tulsa W 69-65 53%     2 - 2 1 - 0 +12.9 +11.2 +2.1
  Dec 22, 2020 100   @ South Florida W 82-77 OT 62%     3 - 2 2 - 0 +11.6 +3.5 +7.4
  Jan 02, 2021 70   @ Mississippi W 83-79 50%     4 - 2 +13.7 +16.7 -3.0
  Jan 06, 2021 8   @ Houston L 63-70 20%     4 - 3 2 - 1 +11.8 +4.3 +7.2
  Jan 10, 2021 84   Cincinnati W 82-76 67%     5 - 3 3 - 1 +11.2 +6.0 +4.7
  Jan 13, 2021 76   Tulsa W 72-53 66%     6 - 3 4 - 1 +24.5 +9.0 +16.6
  Jan 21, 2021 72   @ Memphis W 74-73 46%    
  Jan 24, 2021 100   South Florida W 72-65 77%    
  Jan 27, 2021 84   @ Cincinnati W 75-74 50%    
  Jan 30, 2021 94   Central Florida W 74-68 75%    
  Feb 03, 2021 182   Tulane W 76-63 91%    
  Feb 07, 2021 130   Temple W 76-67 82%    
  Feb 10, 2021 94   @ Central Florida W 72-70 53%    
  Feb 15, 2021 58   @ SMU L 75-77 40%    
  Feb 18, 2021 72   Memphis W 75-71 66%    
  Feb 21, 2021 142   @ East Carolina W 74-67 67%    
  Feb 25, 2021 8   Houston L 66-72 35%    
  Feb 28, 2021 58   SMU W 77-75 61%    
  Mar 03, 2021 182   @ Tulane W 74-64 78%    
  Mar 06, 2021 130   @ Temple W 75-69 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 8 13 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.1 4.7 2.8 0.4 14.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 5.0 11.0 12.7 9.1 2.6 0.1 41.4 2nd
3rd 0.7 4.3 8.1 5.9 1.7 0.2 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.2 5.7 2.5 0.5 0.1 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.1 1.6 0.1 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.9 7.7 12.4 15.7 17.8 16.0 13.3 7.4 3.0 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-3 96.0% 2.8    2.2 0.7
16-4 64.1% 4.7    2.5 2.2 0.0
15-5 30.5% 4.1    1.6 2.2 0.3
14-6 9.4% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 7.0 6.0 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.0% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.4% 99.4% 24.9% 74.5% 6.6 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
15-5 13.3% 95.1% 17.9% 77.2% 8.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 2.0 3.0 3.8 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.7 94.0%
14-6 16.0% 81.7% 14.0% 67.7% 9.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.4 3.8 2.2 0.6 2.9 78.7%
13-7 17.8% 63.9% 10.2% 53.7% 10.3 0.2 0.8 1.5 3.6 3.3 1.9 0.1 6.4 59.8%
12-8 15.7% 38.2% 10.0% 28.2% 11.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.1 0.3 9.7 31.4%
11-9 12.4% 13.8% 6.5% 7.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 10.7 7.8%
10-10 7.7% 5.6% 4.4% 1.3% 12.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.2 1.3%
9-11 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 12.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.7
8-12 1.7% 1.7
7-13 0.7% 0.7
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 56.1% 12.2% 44.0% 8.9 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.8 4.9 7.7 9.9 10.6 8.5 5.6 0.9 0.1 43.9 50.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.4 62.0 37.4 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.8 24.4 75.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.7 50.8 32.2 16.9