William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#261
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#227
Pace67.9#233
Improvement+0.5#128

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#245
First Shot-3.3#259
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks+5.4#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#295
Freethrows+1.2#105
Improvement-2.5#318

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#257
First Shot-1.5#221
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#270
Layups/Dunks-4.4#299
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#21
Freethrows+1.2#118
Improvement+3.0#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 5.6% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 14.2% 29.0% 9.9%
.500 or above in Conference 18.2% 35.3% 13.3%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 16.7% 5.4% 19.9%
First Four2.1% 3.3% 1.7%
First Round2.3% 4.3% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 73 - 10
Quad 46 - 59 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 148   @ Old Dominion L 78-86 21%     0 - 1 -5.3 +6.2 -11.4
  Dec 14, 2020 199   @ George Washington W 85-84 OT 33%     1 - 1 -0.3 +7.3 -7.6
  Dec 16, 2020 317   @ Hampton W 75-58 61%     2 - 1 +8.2 -4.6 +12.2
  Dec 19, 2020 274   High Point L 49-71 60%     2 - 2 -30.6 -25.6 -5.8
  Dec 22, 2020 15   @ Virginia L 40-76 3%     2 - 3 -19.4 -14.5 -13.3
  Jan 02, 2021 155   @ Hofstra L 56-61 22%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -2.8 -13.6 +10.5
  Jan 03, 2021 155   @ Hofstra L 73-82 22%     2 - 5 0 - 2 -6.8 -5.0 -1.2
  Jan 09, 2021 258   Delaware W 67-62 56%     3 - 5 1 - 2 -2.5 -7.0 +4.7
  Jan 16, 2021 175   @ Drexel L 66-72 22%    
  Jan 17, 2021 175   @ Drexel L 66-72 23%    
  Jan 23, 2021 200   College of Charleston L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 24, 2021 200   College of Charleston L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 30, 2021 209   @ Towson L 67-71 30%    
  Jan 31, 2021 209   @ Towson L 67-71 31%    
  Feb 06, 2021 229   James Madison W 76-75 56%    
  Feb 07, 2021 229   James Madison W 76-75 56%    
  Feb 13, 2021 195   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-73 28%    
  Feb 14, 2021 195   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-73 28%    
  Feb 18, 2021 244   @ Elon L 67-69 37%    
  Feb 20, 2021 244   Elon W 68-67 57%    
  Feb 27, 2021 145   Northeastern L 63-69 35%    
  Feb 28, 2021 145   Northeastern L 63-69 35%    
Projected Record 8 - 14 6 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.7 2.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.2 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.1 5.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.6 4.8 6.6 1.9 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.0 7.5 2.5 0.2 14.6 7th
8th 0.4 3.5 6.9 3.1 0.3 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.4 3.0 5.8 3.3 0.5 12.9 9th
10th 0.6 2.3 3.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.9 10th
Total 0.6 2.7 7.0 11.9 15.0 16.9 15.5 12.3 8.5 5.3 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 64.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 54.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 30.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 9.9% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 19.5% 19.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 11.3% 11.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.2% 17.2% 17.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
11-7 2.6% 14.5% 14.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3
10-8 5.3% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.1 0.5 4.8
9-9 8.5% 5.6% 5.6% 15.9 0.0 0.4 8.1
8-10 12.3% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.6 11.7
7-11 15.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 15.1
6-12 16.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 16.6
5-13 15.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.9
4-14 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.9
3-15 7.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.9
2-16 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%