Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#80
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#149
Pace76.8#38
Improvement-0.6#209

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#114
First Shot+1.3#150
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#120
Layup/Dunks+4.5#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#266
Freethrows+0.1#171
Improvement+0.6#119

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#56
First Shot+6.3#23
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#275
Layups/Dunks-2.3#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#18
Freethrows+2.8#26
Improvement-1.2#261
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.0% 63.8% 57.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 83.1% 86.0% 64.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round63.0% 63.8% 57.6%
Second Round12.8% 13.4% 8.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 3.9% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Away) - 86.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 34 - 24 - 2
Quad 416 - 420 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 03, 2020 89   Marshall L 64-80 60%     0 - 1 -11.8 -12.3 +2.0
  Dec 05, 2020 166   Miami (OH) W 71-47 81%     1 - 1 +21.6 -5.0 +26.7
  Dec 13, 2020 135   @ Bowling Green W 85-67 61%     2 - 1 +22.1 +6.5 +14.3
  Dec 19, 2020 223   @ Detroit Mercy W 93-70 81%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +20.8 +10.3 +8.9
  Dec 20, 2020 223   @ Detroit Mercy W 85-72 81%     4 - 1 2 - 0 +10.8 +4.1 +6.0
  Dec 26, 2020 273   Green Bay W 67-53 92%     5 - 1 3 - 0 +5.3 -13.8 +19.0
  Dec 27, 2020 273   Green Bay W 90-77 92%     6 - 1 4 - 0 +4.3 +1.6 +1.5
  Jan 01, 2021 253   @ Oakland W 90-51 85%     7 - 1 5 - 0 +35.0 +4.9 +26.2
  Jan 02, 2021 253   @ Oakland L 71-81 85%     7 - 2 5 - 1 -14.0 -2.6 -11.7
  Jan 08, 2021 269   Youngstown St. L 72-74 92%     7 - 3 5 - 2 -10.4 -9.9 -0.5
  Jan 09, 2021 269   Youngstown St. W 93-55 92%     8 - 3 6 - 2 +29.6 +11.1 +18.6
  Jan 15, 2021 190   Cleveland St. L 64-66 85%     8 - 4 6 - 3 -6.1 +0.2 -6.6
  Jan 16, 2021 190   Cleveland St. W 85-49 85%     9 - 4 7 - 3 +31.9 +3.5 +24.5
  Jan 22, 2021 290   @ IUPUI W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 23, 2021 290   @ IUPUI W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 29, 2021 232   Robert Morris W 78-65 91%    
  Jan 30, 2021 232   Robert Morris W 78-65 91%    
  Feb 05, 2021 214   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-66 75%    
  Feb 06, 2021 214   @ Illinois-Chicago W 75-66 75%    
  Feb 12, 2021 211   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-67 89%    
  Feb 13, 2021 211   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-67 88%    
  Feb 19, 2021 226   @ Northern Kentucky W 74-65 77%    
  Feb 20, 2021 226   @ Northern Kentucky W 74-65 77%    
Projected Record 17 - 6 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 6.9 19.4 31.5 24.2 83.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.4 4.9 1.8 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.4 12.3 24.3 33.4 24.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 24.2    22.9 1.2
14-4 94.5% 31.5    26.3 5.2
13-5 79.8% 19.4    13.4 6.0 0.0
12-6 55.9% 6.9    3.3 3.3 0.2
11-7 25.4% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
10-8 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 83.1% 83.1 66.3 16.3 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 24.2% 71.7% 71.6% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 8.0 5.8 0.9 0.0 6.8 0.4%
14-4 33.4% 65.3% 65.3% 0.0% 13.2 0.1 3.1 11.9 6.2 0.6 0.0 11.6 0.0%
13-5 24.3% 60.1% 60.1% 13.7 0.5 5.4 7.2 1.6 0.0 9.7
12-6 12.3% 53.3% 53.3% 14.1 0.0 1.3 3.3 1.8 0.2 5.8
11-7 4.4% 47.9% 47.9% 14.6 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 2.3
10-8 1.2% 44.6% 44.6% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7
9-9 0.2% 43.8% 43.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 63.0% 63.0% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 11.6 24.5 18.5 5.2 0.7 37.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.3% 100.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 3.1 13.7 50.2 30.0 2.5 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 0.8% 12.7 0.3 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 0.2% 12.0 0.2