Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#234
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#198
Pace65.0#287
Improvement-0.6#224

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#97
First Shot+2.5#113
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#149
Layup/Dunks-2.2#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#122
Freethrows+2.3#58
Improvement-0.5#224

Defense
Total Defense-7.7#337
First Shot-5.3#319
After Offensive Rebounds-2.5#311
Layups/Dunks-2.7#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#95
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#307
Freethrows+0.3#167
Improvement-0.1#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.9% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 57.5% 73.0% 44.0%
.500 or above in Conference 38.3% 56.6% 22.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.4% 2.5%
First Four2.1% 2.2% 2.1%
First Round2.9% 3.9% 2.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 46.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 42 - 5
Quad 49 - 611 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 13, 2020 329   @ Binghamton W 79-65 73%     1 - 0 +2.8 +2.5 +1.0
  Dec 19, 2020 196   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-79 36%     1 - 1 0 - 1 -16.0 -1.0 -16.9
  Dec 20, 2020 196   @ Northern Kentucky W 70-60 36%     2 - 1 1 - 1 +9.0 +4.7 +5.3
  Dec 26, 2020 187   @ Cleveland St. L 69-87 33%     2 - 2 1 - 2 -18.2 +3.6 -23.2
  Dec 27, 2020 187   @ Cleveland St. L 74-81 33%     2 - 3 1 - 3 -7.2 +6.6 -14.2
  Jan 01, 2021 248   Green Bay W 84-77 59%     3 - 3 2 - 3 -0.1 +5.9 -5.9
  Jan 02, 2021 248   Green Bay L 69-79 59%     3 - 4 2 - 4 -17.1 -4.9 -13.0
  Jan 08, 2021 85   @ Wright St. W 74-72 12%     4 - 4 3 - 4 +10.2 +6.9 +3.4
  Jan 09, 2021 85   @ Wright St. L 55-93 12%     4 - 5 3 - 5 -29.8 -12.3 -17.7
  Jan 15, 2021 273   @ Oakland W 77-76 46%    
  Jan 16, 2021 273   @ Oakland W 77-76 47%    
  Jan 22, 2021 230   Illinois-Chicago W 73-72 61%    
  Jan 23, 2021 230   Illinois-Chicago W 73-72 61%    
  Jan 29, 2021 251   Detroit Mercy W 78-75 64%    
  Jan 30, 2021 251   Detroit Mercy W 78-75 63%    
  Feb 05, 2021 206   @ Robert Morris L 73-76 34%    
  Feb 06, 2021 206   @ Robert Morris L 73-76 34%    
  Feb 12, 2021 214   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-77 57%    
  Feb 13, 2021 214   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-77 57%    
  Feb 19, 2021 303   IUPUI W 78-72 75%    
  Feb 20, 2021 303   IUPUI W 78-72 75%    
Projected Record 11 - 10 8 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.5 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.3 9.9 8.7 2.4 24.6 3rd
4th 0.1 3.5 11.9 9.9 2.3 0.1 27.7 4th
5th 1.4 8.5 7.6 1.3 0.1 18.9 5th
6th 0.2 4.6 5.6 1.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 4.8 1.0 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.2 11.9 18.9 23.8 21.6 12.7 3.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 3.9% 9.0% 9.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.6
10-8 12.7% 8.0% 8.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 11.7
9-9 21.6% 4.4% 4.4% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 20.7
8-10 23.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.1 0.8 23.0
7-11 18.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.6 18.4
6-12 11.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 11.7
5-13 5.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.2
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 96.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.9 1.9 35.2 33.3 29.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.0%