Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
26 San Diego St. 98.8%   7   23 - 8 13 - 4 23 - 8 13 - 4 +12.0      +0.5 166 +11.6 3 64.5 275 +12.4 32 +13.2 3
37 Boise St. 100.0%   6   26 - 7 15 - 3 26 - 7 15 - 3 +10.9      +3.9 77 +7.0 23 63.7 307 +12.9 27 +16.0 1
44 Colorado St. 99.8%   7   24 - 5 14 - 4 24 - 5 14 - 4 +10.5      +7.5 22 +3.0 96 64.8 264 +14.9 18 +13.4 2
58 Utah St. 0.0%   17 - 15 8 - 10 17 - 15 8 - 10 +9.2      +4.5 64 +4.7 53 67.2 205 +5.2 103 +3.3 7
74 Wyoming 77.6%   10   24 - 8 13 - 5 24 - 8 13 - 5 +8.1      +4.3 67 +3.7 78 65.9 242 +11.7 38 +11.2 4
84 Fresno St. 0.0%   18 - 13 8 - 9 18 - 13 8 - 9 +6.8      +0.8 156 +6.0 35 56.7 356 +5.4 101 +4.7 6
86 UNLV 0.0%   17 - 14 10 - 8 17 - 14 10 - 8 +6.5      +3.1 93 +3.3 88 66.2 229 +5.6 100 +6.6 5
110 Nevada 0.0%   12 - 18 6 - 12 12 - 18 6 - 12 +3.9      +3.0 97 +0.9 146 74.8 37 +2.6 131 +1.8 8
155 New Mexico 0.0%   11 - 19 5 - 12 11 - 19 5 - 12 +0.6      +2.3 113 -1.7 223 76.9 19 +0.1 171 -0.5 9
249 Air Force 0.0%   11 - 18 4 - 13 11 - 18 4 - 13 -4.9      -4.5 288 -0.4 186 60.5 342 -2.1 205 -2.0 10
275 San Jose St. 0.0%   7 - 23 1 - 17 7 - 23 1 - 17 -6.5      -2.3 241 -4.2 287 64.9 262 -4.9 249 -11.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 3.0 100.0
Boise St. 1.0 100.0
Colorado St. 2.0 100.0
Utah St. 6.0 100.0
Wyoming 3.0 100.0
Fresno St. 6.0 100.0
UNLV 5.0 100.0
Nevada 8.0 100.0
New Mexico 9.0 100.0
Air Force 10.0 100.0
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 13 - 5 100.0
Boise St. 15 - 3 100.0
Colorado St. 14 - 4 100.0
Utah St. 8 - 10 100.0
Wyoming 13 - 5 100.0
Fresno St. 8 - 10 100.0
UNLV 10 - 8 100.0
Nevada 6 - 12 100.0
New Mexico 5 - 13 100.0
Air Force 4 - 14 100.0
San Jose St. 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St.
Boise St. 100.0% 100.0
Colorado St.
Utah St.
Wyoming
Fresno St.
UNLV
Nevada
New Mexico
Air Force
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 7   0.0 0.6 8.3 25.3 41.0 19.1 4.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 98.8%
Boise St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6   0.1 1.9 21.2 43.6 29.7 3.3 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 7   0.1 1.0 13.3 39.2 36.2 8.9 1.2 0.0 0.2 99.8%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 77.6% 0.0% 77.6% 10   0.1 1.5 12.4 32.9 29.5 1.2 22.4 77.6%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 55.9% 18.3% 6.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Boise St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 53.3% 17.7% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Colorado St. 99.8% 0.0% 99.8% 50.8% 15.5% 4.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 77.6% 8.8% 72.5% 25.4% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.8 0.2 23.3 76.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.7 0.3 28.3 71.4 0.0
2nd Round 93.3% 1.9 6.7 28.1 41.0 21.5 2.7
Sweet Sixteen 46.6% 0.6 53.4 37.2 8.5 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 17.3% 0.2 82.7 16.4 1.0 0.0
Final Four 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2 0.1
Final Game 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4 0.0
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3