Pre-tourney Rankings
Ohio Valley
2021-22


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
56 Murray St. 100.0%   9   27 - 2 18 - 0 27 - 2 18 - 0 +9.4      +5.0 50 +4.4 60 65.3 257 +16.5 13 +17.0 1
91 Belmont 0.8%   24 - 7 15 - 3 24 - 7 15 - 3 +6.2      +3.3 90 +2.9 101 72.4 69 +7.7 72 +5.9 2
134 Morehead St. 0.0%   20 - 11 13 - 5 20 - 11 13 - 5 +2.1      0.0 180 +2.1 118 63.5 309 +2.9 127 +1.8 3
245 Southeast Missouri St. 0.0%   12 - 18 8 - 9 12 - 18 8 - 9 -4.7      +0.3 171 -5.0 309 77.6 16 -6.2 265 -5.3 4
272 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   9 - 21 7 - 10 9 - 21 7 - 10 -6.3      -2.4 244 -3.9 279 72.6 66 -8.7 301 -7.6 7
278 Tennessee St. 0.0%   12 - 18 8 - 10 12 - 18 8 - 10 -6.6      -3.6 271 -3.0 264 69.1 147 -8.2 291 -6.2 6
296 Austin Peay 0.0%   10 - 17 8 - 10 10 - 17 8 - 10 -8.0      -6.2 330 -1.8 230 63.3 314 -5.9 262 -6.0 5
308 SIU Edwardsville 0.0%   9 - 21 5 - 13 9 - 21 5 - 13 -9.0      -6.5 332 -2.5 251 70.9 101 -9.5 309 -11.3 8
313 Tennessee Martin 0.0%   6 - 22 4 - 14 6 - 22 4 - 14 -9.7      -5.2 311 -4.5 298 71.5 89 -11.7 332 -13.2 9
355 Eastern Illinois 0.0%   3 - 26 3 - 15 3 - 26 3 - 15 -17.2      -13.3 357 -3.9 280 63.9 300 -16.6 353 -14.0 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Murray St. 1.0 100.0
Belmont 2.0 100.0
Morehead St. 3.0 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 4.0 100.0
Tennessee Tech 7.0 100.0
Tennessee St. 4.0 100.0
Austin Peay 4.0 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 8.0 100.0
Tennessee Martin 9.0 100.0
Eastern Illinois 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Murray St. 18 - 0 100.0
Belmont 15 - 3 100.0
Morehead St. 13 - 5 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 8 - 10 100.0
Tennessee Tech 7 - 11 100.0
Tennessee St. 8 - 10 100.0
Austin Peay 8 - 10 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 5 - 13 100.0
Tennessee Martin 4 - 14 100.0
Eastern Illinois 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Murray St. 100.0% 100.0
Belmont
Morehead St.
Southeast Missouri St.
Tennessee Tech
Tennessee St.
Austin Peay
SIU Edwardsville
Tennessee Martin
Eastern Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Murray St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 9   0.0 0.1 3.0 11.5 17.4 18.3 24.6 15.5 8.8 0.8 0.0
Belmont 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0 0.6 0.1 99.2 0.8%
Morehead St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 42.5% 9.5% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Belmont 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
2nd Round 42.6% 0.4 57.4 42.6 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.5 0.0
Elite Eight 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Final Four 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0