Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2021-22
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#20
Expected Predictive Rating+15.1#17
Pace61.4#338
Improvement+3.8#55

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#65
First Shot+3.4#78
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#93
Layup/Dunks+8.4#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#122
Freethrows-0.9#252
Improvement+3.9#24

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#9
First Shot+6.0#24
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#8
Layups/Dunks-0.3#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#11
Freethrows+2.2#36
Improvement-0.1#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 1.6% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 54.5% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 98.3% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% n/a n/a
Average Seed 4.4 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% n/a n/a
Conference Champion 0.0% n/a n/a
Last Place in Conference 0.0% n/a n/a
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round99.9% n/a n/a
Second Round73.8% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen38.2% n/a n/a
Elite Eight13.5% n/a n/a
Final Four5.2% n/a n/a
Championship Game1.7% n/a n/a
National Champion0.6% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 7
Quad 26 - 010 - 7
Quad 35 - 015 - 7
Quad 49 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 300   Prairie View W 87-68 98%     1 - 0 +8.6 +10.1 -1.4
  Nov 12, 2021 209   Texas Southern W 67-58 94%     2 - 0 +4.4 -1.9 +6.8
  Nov 15, 2021 167   Southern Utah W 70-51 92%     3 - 0 +16.7 -6.5 +23.2
  Nov 17, 2021 198   Bellarmine W 73-64 94%     4 - 0 +5.0 -3.5 +8.9
  Nov 22, 2021 48   Notre Dame W 62-59 63%     5 - 0 +12.9 -0.8 +14.1
  Nov 23, 2021 70   Oregon W 62-50 69%     6 - 0 +20.2 -1.7 +23.1
  Nov 24, 2021 30   Wisconsin L 55-61 57%     6 - 1 +5.7 -4.0 +8.9
  Nov 29, 2021 173   UC Riverside W 67-50 92%     7 - 1 +14.5 +6.1 +11.5
  Dec 02, 2021 58   @ Utah St. W 60-58 58%     8 - 1 +13.4 -2.3 +15.9
  Dec 04, 2021 44   @ Colorado St. L 58-74 53%     8 - 2 -3.3 -8.2 +4.2
  Dec 11, 2021 130   UC Santa Barbara W 80-59 89%     9 - 2 +21.2 +11.2 +11.2
  Dec 17, 2021 26   San Diego St. L 53-63 55%     9 - 3 +2.0 -2.5 +3.4
  Dec 22, 2021 75   Missouri St. W 75-58 77%     10 - 3 +22.7 +9.4 +14.9
  Dec 28, 2021 143   Yale W 87-60 90%     11 - 3 +26.3 +12.1 +13.0
  Jan 08, 2022 61   @ BYU L 43-52 59%     11 - 4 0 - 1 +2.1 -20.5 +21.7
  Jan 13, 2022 265   @ Pepperdine W 77-62 94%     12 - 4 1 - 1 +11.2 +8.0 +4.3
  Jan 20, 2022 71   Santa Clara W 73-65 76%     13 - 4 2 - 1 +14.0 +4.0 +10.4
  Jan 22, 2022 183   @ Loyola Marymount W 83-51 87%     14 - 4 3 - 1 +33.3 +20.6 +17.6
  Jan 27, 2022 21   @ San Francisco W 72-70 44%     15 - 4 4 - 1 +17.0 +13.6 +3.6
  Jan 29, 2022 265   Pepperdine W 81-57 97%     16 - 4 5 - 1 +15.8 +14.6 +4.2
  Feb 03, 2022 169   @ Portland W 75-54 86%     17 - 4 6 - 1 +22.9 +6.5 +17.5
  Feb 05, 2022 183   Loyola Marymount W 71-60 93%     18 - 4 7 - 1 +7.8 +5.6 +4.1
  Feb 08, 2022 71   @ Santa Clara L 72-77 61%     18 - 5 7 - 2 +5.4 +3.8 +1.5
  Feb 10, 2022 208   San Diego W 86-57 94%     19 - 5 8 - 2 +24.5 +18.8 +7.3
  Feb 12, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 58-74 12%     19 - 6 8 - 3 +10.1 -0.8 +10.2
  Feb 17, 2022 21   San Francisco W 69-64 61%     20 - 6 9 - 3 +15.6 +3.0 +12.6
  Feb 19, 2022 61   BYU W 69-64 74%     21 - 6 10 - 3 +11.7 +2.4 +9.4
  Feb 24, 2022 208   @ San Diego W 60-46 89%     22 - 6 11 - 3 +13.9 -2.6 +18.2
  Feb 26, 2022 1   Gonzaga W 67-57 21%     23 - 6 12 - 3 +31.7 +2.7 +28.9
  Mar 07, 2022 71   Santa Clara W 75-72 69%     24 - 6 +11.2 +9.6 +1.9
  Mar 08, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 69-82 16%     24 - 7 +10.9 +10.8 -0.6
Projected Record 24 - 7 12 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 99.9% 99.9% 4.4 0.2 1.4 13.6 39.3 33.9 9.9 1.6 0.1 0.1 99.9%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 4.4 0.2 1.4 13.6 39.3 33.9 9.9 1.6 0.1 0.1 99.9%