Texas
Men - Women
2011 - 2012 - 2013
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RankNameGradeRating
23  Ryan Dohner JR 31:12
40  Craig Lutz SO 31:24
46  Rory Tunningley SR 31:27
84  Kyle Merber SR 31:48
101  Patrick McGregor JR 31:53
191  Trevor Van Ackeren SR 32:12
429  Austin Roth JR 32:45
464  Daniel Vertiz FR 32:50
475  Mark Pinales SO 32:51
574  Blake Williams SO 33:04
706  Brady Turnbull FR 33:17
National Rank #4 of 311
South Central Region Rank #1 of 34
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Nationals


National Champion 2.4%
Top 5 at Nationals 52.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 84.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 98.8%


Regional Champion 76.9%
Top 5 in Regional 100.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Ryan Dohner Craig Lutz Rory Tunningley Kyle Merber Patrick McGregor Trevor Van Ackeren Austin Roth Daniel Vertiz Mark Pinales Blake Williams Brady Turnbull
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/29 686 32:00 31:46 32:04 32:35 32:46 33:07 33:21
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/12 425 31:42 31:16 31:27 32:06 32:09 32:20 32:32
Concordia Invitational 10/13 1190
Big 12 Championships 10/27 278 31:16 31:22 31:24 31:48 31:32 32:03 32:52 32:54 33:02 33:15
South Central Region Championships 11/09 227 31:00 31:13 31:16 31:24 31:43 32:04 32:48
NCAA Championship 11/17 402 30:53 31:29 31:55 31:59 32:03 33:14





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 6.4 254 2.4 11.9 13.8 13.3 11.1 9.7 7.3 6.2 4.6 4.3 3.5 2.6 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 1.2 43 76.9 22.7 0.4



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Dohner 100% 25.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.0
Craig Lutz 100% 40.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.7 2.1 1.8
Rory Tunningley 100% 43.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1
Kyle Merber 100% 85.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Patrick McGregor 100% 96.1 0.0
Trevor Van Ackeren 100% 147.9
Austin Roth 100% 217.5


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Ryan Dohner 3.9 3.9 13.0 19.7 15.3 13.3 9.3 8.1 6.2 3.8 2.1 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Craig Lutz 6.0 0.4 2.4 7.5 11.9 14.1 14.1 13.4 10.8 7.0 4.7 3.7 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rory Tunningley 6.4 0.3 1.9 5.7 10.0 12.7 14.4 12.8 11.6 9.0 5.9 3.9 2.9 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Kyle Merber 10.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.5 10.9 13.3 12.6 9.6 7.5 6.1 4.9 4.4 3.0 3.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6
Patrick McGregor 11.4 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.8 6.3 11.1 12.1 11.1 9.2 6.6 6.5 5.4 4.8 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9
Trevor Van Ackeren 16.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 5.2 6.7 8.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.4 6.3 5.6 4.7 4.6 3.6 3.3 2.2 2.5
Austin Roth 28.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.9 3.0 4.0 4.7 5.0 5.5 6.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 76.9% 100.0% 76.9 76.9 1
2 22.7% 100.0% 22.7 22.7 2
3 0.4% 100.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
Total 100% 100.0% 76.9 22.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Wisconsin 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Princeton 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Northern Arizona 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Oklahoma 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Georgia 99.2% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 98.6% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Columbia 98.4% 1.0 1.0
Portland 92.2% 1.0 0.9
Notre Dame 88.9% 1.0 0.9
UCLA 84.5% 1.0 0.8
Virginia 82.0% 1.0 0.8
Iowa State 53.5% 2.0 1.1
Texas A&M 52.7% 1.0 0.5
Kansas 41.8% 2.0 0.8
Arizona State 38.4% 1.0 0.4
North Carolina St. 20.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 10.7% 1.0 0.1
Washington 7.0% 1.0 0.1
Dartmouth 5.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Illinois 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.8% 2.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.5% 2.0 0.0
Providence 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Harvard 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.3% 1.0 0.0
North Carolina 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 18.8
Minimum 13.0
Maximum 25.0