BYU
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
29  Tylor Thatcher SR 31:21
31  Jared Ward SR 31:23
39  Jason Witt SR 31:27
79  Jonathan Nelson SO 31:45
106  Steve Flint JR 31:53
113  Thomas Gruenewald SR 31:55
138  Spencer Gardner JR 32:01
177  Taylor Farnsworth SR 32:10
241  Aaron Fletcher SO 32:21
273  Curtis Carr SR 32:28
479  Dylan Shawhan JR 32:58
577  James Tracy JR 33:08
1,045  Brandon Doolin JR 33:54
National Rank #4 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #3 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Nationals


National Champion 14.1%
Top 5 at Nationals 70.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 92.3%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.6%


Regional Champion 18.3%
Top 5 in Regional 99.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Tylor Thatcher Jared Ward Jason Witt Jonathan Nelson Steve Flint Thomas Gruenewald Spencer Gardner Taylor Farnsworth Aaron Fletcher Curtis Carr Dylan Shawhan
Roy Griak Invitational (Gold) 09/28 485 31:33 31:43 32:06 32:07 32:00 32:17 32:27 31:59 32:46
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 354 31:24 31:12 31:34 31:50 32:06 32:01 32:07 32:03 32:26
West Coast Conference Championships 11/02 241 31:20 30:59 31:54 31:19 31:24 31:47 32:07 32:44 33:02
Mountain Region Championships 11/15 461 31:43 31:31 31:45 32:03 32:52 32:05 33:12
NCAA Championship 11/23 321 31:01 31:16 31:46 31:34 32:13 32:00 31:59





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100.0% 4.7 221 14.1 17.7 15.9 13.1 9.2 7.7 6.0 4.0 2.7 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 2.4 75 18.3 35.2 36.8 7.9 1.5 0.3 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tylor Thatcher 100% 31.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.9
Jared Ward 100.0% 35.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.0
Jason Witt 100.0% 40.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.1 1.9
Jonathan Nelson 100.0% 75.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
Steve Flint 100.0% 95.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Thomas Gruenewald 100.0% 101.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Spencer Gardner 100.0% 117.0 0.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tylor Thatcher 9.0 0.2 2.7 5.2 6.9 7.1 7.3 6.8 7.5 6.4 6.1 5.6 4.9 3.9 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9
Jared Ward 9.8 0.1 1.8 3.5 5.0 6.2 7.0 7.9 6.1 7.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.6 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0
Jason Witt 10.8 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.5 4.9 6.0 6.9 7.1 6.2 6.5 6.4 5.9 4.7 5.0 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.2
Jonathan Nelson 18.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.1 4.2 4.8 4.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.3 3.9 2.7 2.9 2.3
Steve Flint 23.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.9 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.3 3.3 3.4
Thomas Gruenewald 24.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.0 2.4 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.2 3.7 4.2 3.8 3.1
Spencer Gardner 28.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.4 4.1 4.2 3.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 18.3% 100.0% 18.3 18.3 1
2 35.2% 100.0% 35.2 35.2 2
3 36.8% 100.0% 26.1 8.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 36.8 3
4 7.9% 100.0% 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 7.9 4
5 1.5% 98.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 5
6 0.3% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 6
7 0.0% 0.0 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 18.3 35.2 26.1 11.3 4.4 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 53.5 46.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Wisconsin 99.7% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Portland 97.3% 2.0 1.9
Columbia 97.0% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 96.8% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.9% 1.0 1.0
New Mexico 93.9% 1.0 0.9
Providence 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Colorado St. 72.5% 1.0 0.7
Air Force 68.6% 1.0 0.7
Harvard 65.7% 1.0 0.7
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 2.0 1.1
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 2.0 0.3
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 2.0 0.2
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 2.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 4.4% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 18.7
Minimum 13.0
Maximum 26.0