Eastern Kentucky
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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RankNameGradeRating
60  Jaime Perales JR 31:36
86  Erick Rotich FR 31:45
90  Amos Kosgey JR 31:47
187  Ambrose Maritim JR 32:12
325  Sergio Marcuello JR 32:37
328  Ronald Korir SO 32:37
345  Luis Luna JR 32:40
367  Jamaine Coleman FR 32:43
397  Luka Ndungu JR 32:47
856  Harry Earl JR 33:35
866  Ben Turner SR 33:36
1,104  Jakob Abrahamsen SO 33:56
2,515  Jack Gaddie SR 36:40
National Rank #17 of 308
Southeast Region Rank #4 of 47
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 88.1%
Most Likely Finish 17th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 1.4%
Top 10 at Nationals 16.4%
Top 20 at Nationals 63.4%


Regional Champion 14.4%
Top 5 in Regional 87.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Jaime Perales Erick Rotich Amos Kosgey Ambrose Maritim Sergio Marcuello Ronald Korir Luis Luna Jamaine Coleman Luka Ndungu Harry Earl Ben Turner
Panorama Farms Invitational 09/26 983 32:22 32:55 33:23 33:00 33:32
Greater Louisville Classic (Gold) 10/03 788 32:28 32:04 32:16 32:49 32:32 32:47 32:40 33:34
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/16 646 31:47 31:37 32:24 32:41 32:20 32:37 32:44
D1 Pre-Nationals (Black) 10/17 1151 32:23 34:09 33:39
Ohio Valley Championships 10/31 775 32:02 32:07 32:25 32:58 32:47 32:39 33:37
Southeast Region Championships 11/13 430 31:09 31:35 31:08 31:56 32:49 33:06 32:53
NCAA Championship 11/21 547 31:15 31:45 32:03 32:10 32:51 32:32





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 88.1% 16.6 440 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 4.6 5.1 4.5 4.3 4.8 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.5 2.6 2.5 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.2
Region Championship 100% 3.4 112 14.4 20.2 21.2 17.1 14.3 10.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jaime Perales 92.7% 57.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9
Erick Rotich 89.5% 76.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4
Amos Kosgey 89.2% 80.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2
Ambrose Maritim 88.1% 141.6
Sergio Marcuello 88.1% 191.0
Ronald Korir 88.1% 192.5
Luis Luna 88.1% 195.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jaime Perales 9.9 0.5 1.5 4.2 5.1 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.9 6.2 6.1 5.3 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.0
Erick Rotich 14.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.3 4.3 4.4 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 4.5 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
Amos Kosgey 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.4 4.3 4.7 5.7 5.1 5.1 4.6 5.2 4.5 4.4 4.5 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.5 1.9
Ambrose Maritim 27.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.8 4.4 4.4
Sergio Marcuello 43.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7
Ronald Korir 43.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6
Luis Luna 45.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 14.4% 100.0% 14.4 14.4 1
2 20.2% 100.0% 20.2 20.2 2
3 21.2% 98.0% 3.2 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.2 0.4 20.8 3
4 17.1% 94.6% 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.9 16.1 4
5 14.3% 81.7% 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.6 11.7 5
6 10.4% 43.2% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.4 5.9 4.5 6
7 2.2% 22.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7 0.5 7
8 0.3% 0.3 8
9 0.0% 0.0 9
10 0.0% 0.0 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
Total 100% 88.1% 14.4 20.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.1 4.1 4.0 5.2 5.2 4.5 4.8 4.7 5.2 3.7 11.9 34.6 53.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Mississippi 91.7% 1.0 0.9
Florida State 91.5% 1.0 0.9
Indiana 61.1% 1.0 0.6
Oklahoma 60.8% 1.0 0.6
Illinois 47.5% 1.0 0.5
Princeton 19.2% 1.0 0.2
Providence 14.1% 1.0 0.1
Lamar 9.0% 1.0 0.1
Notre Dame 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Wisconsin 7.0% 2.0 0.1
Penn State 3.3% 2.0 0.1
Portland 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Iowa State 0.8% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.3
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 11.0