Southern Utah
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
52  Hayden Hawks SR 31:33
73  Mike Tate JR 31:41
208  Ibrahim Ahmed JR 32:17
279  Kasey Knevelbaard FR 32:30
284  Shinano Miyazawa JR 32:30
327  Josh Collins FR 32:37
374  Matt Wright SO 32:44
426  Istvan Szogi SO 32:49
National Rank #27 of 308
Mountain Region Rank #6 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 51.7%
Most Likely Finish 25th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 3.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 24.7%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 65.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Hayden Hawks Mike Tate Ibrahim Ahmed Kasey Knevelbaard Shinano Miyazawa Josh Collins Matt Wright Istvan Szogi
Roy Griak Invitational 09/26 555 31:44 31:49 32:19 32:06 32:29 31:59 32:40 32:51
Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/02 636 31:36 31:53 32:21 32:22 32:25 33:03 32:42 32:24
SUU Invitational 10/10 1316
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 702 32:03 31:42 32:21 32:16 33:19 33:01
Big Sky Championships 10/31 575 31:21 31:26 32:39 33:44 32:51 32:19 32:18 32:59
Mountain Region Championships 11/13 554 31:28 31:34 31:52 32:33 32:28 32:41 32:51
NCAA Championship 11/21 592 31:14 31:38 32:12 32:43 32:24 33:19 32:51





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 51.7% 20.4 498 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.5
Region Championship 100% 4.9 129 0.0 3.2 11.7 21.9 28.1 28.5 5.2 1.1 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hayden Hawks 83.8% 54.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.2
Mike Tate 69.3% 68.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4
Ibrahim Ahmed 52.0% 150.0
Kasey Knevelbaard 51.7% 177.6
Shinano Miyazawa 51.7% 178.3
Josh Collins 51.7% 190.3
Matt Wright 51.7% 202.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Hayden Hawks 11.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.4 4.4 4.9 5.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 6.2 6.1 5.5 5.2 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.3
Mike Tate 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.8 2.2 3.2 3.9 4.6 4.9 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.0 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.3
Ibrahim Ahmed 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.8 3.9 5.0
Kasey Knevelbaard 35.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6
Shinano Miyazawa 36.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.7
Josh Collins 39.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6
Matt Wright 43.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 1
2 3.2% 100.0% 3.2 3.2 2
3 11.7% 79.7% 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.4 2.4 9.3 3
4 21.9% 61.8% 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.3 2.1 1.2 8.4 13.6 4
5 28.1% 49.5% 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.4 2.0 1.5 14.2 13.9 5
6 28.5% 36.0% 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.0 2.0 18.2 10.2 6
7 5.2% 26.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 3.9 1.4 7
8 1.1% 1.1 8
9 0.2% 0.2 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 51.7% 0.0 3.2 1.4 2.0 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.0 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.1 6.4 5.4 48.3 3.2 48.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Boise State 57.0% 1.0 0.6
Colorado St. 53.4% 1.0 0.5
Texas A&M 50.0% 1.0 0.5
Texas 38.3% 1.0 0.4
Penn 30.0% 1.0 0.3
Minnesota 25.4% 2.0 0.5
California 23.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Michigan 22.0% 2.0 0.4
Florida 8.5% 2.0 0.2
Notre Dame 8.2% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Cornell 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 2.0 0.0
Navy 1.5% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.7% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.5% 1.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
New Mexico 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Duke 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.0% 1.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 0.0% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 3.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 13.0