UC Santa Barbara
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
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RankNameGradeRating
92  Bryan Guijarro SR 31:47
120  Anthony Ortolan SR 31:56
221  Shyan Vaziri SR 32:20
405  Brad Littooy JR 32:48
445  George Baier JR 32:52
518  Adam Avila JR 33:01
595  Carlos Guijarro FR 33:09
829  Andrew Farkas SR 33:32
892  Jackson Bright SO 33:38
941  George Degen SR 33:41
975  Anthony Monroy JR 33:44
1,218  Joseph Rivera SR 34:06
1,314  Andrew Verdin JR 34:15
2,258  Connor Rafferty SO 35:55
National Rank #40 of 308
West Region Rank #9 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 2.7%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.6%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 4.0%
Top 10 in Regional 86.8%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Bryan Guijarro Anthony Ortolan Shyan Vaziri Brad Littooy George Baier Adam Avila Carlos Guijarro Andrew Farkas Jackson Bright George Degen Anthony Monroy
Stanford Invitational 09/26 33:26
Joe Piane Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/02 1040 33:14 32:43 32:52 33:55 33:06 33:21 33:23
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 654 31:42 31:49 32:18 32:29 32:54 32:28 33:42
Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 10/17 1189 33:44 33:51 33:59
Titan Invitational 10/23
Big West Conference Championships 10/31 772 32:03 32:05 32:06 32:56 33:27 32:57 33:50 33:59 33:29
West Region Championships 11/13 594 31:33 31:36 32:16 32:59 32:22 33:01 32:28
NCAA Championship 11/21 32:11 31:39





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 2.7% 23.0 538 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 8.7 230 0.2 1.0 2.8 6.0 12.4 18.9 28.0 17.5 9.0 3.8 0.4



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bryan Guijarro 48.4% 76.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Anthony Ortolan 28.2% 94.6 0.0 0.1 0.0
Shyan Vaziri 3.7% 135.7
Brad Littooy 2.7% 191.0
George Baier 2.7% 195.5
Adam Avila 2.7% 212.0
Carlos Guijarro 2.7% 220.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Bryan Guijarro 18.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.6 3.7 4.5 4.0 4.7 4.0 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.1
Anthony Ortolan 24.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.5 2.6 3.0
Shyan Vaziri 43.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.5
Brad Littooy 67.6
George Baier 72.3
Adam Avila 80.6
Carlos Guijarro 87.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.2% 87.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3
4 1.0% 49.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 4
5 2.8% 33.8% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.8 0.9 5
6 6.0% 10.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.4 0.6 6
7 12.4% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 12.1 0.3 7
8 18.9% 1.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 18.7 0.2 8
9 28.0% 28.0 9
10 17.5% 17.5 10
11 9.0% 9.0 11
12 3.8% 3.8 12
13 0.4% 0.4 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 97.3 0.0 2.7




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Louisville 88.3% 1.0 0.9
Texas 38.3% 1.0 0.4
Southern Utah 36.0% 1.0 0.4
Minnesota 25.4% 1.0 0.3
Eastern Michigan 22.0% 1.0 0.2
Florida 8.5% 1.0 0.1
Georgia 6.3% 1.0 0.1
Cornell 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 2.3% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.7% 1.0 0.0
North Texas 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Yale 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Duke 0.0% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 2.4
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 9.0