Colorado
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
12  Joe Klecker SO 31:02
40  Eduardo Herrera FR 31:26
43  Ryan Forsyth JR 31:28
115  Zach Perrin SR 31:51
137  Adam Peterman SR 31:57
171  Ethan Gonzales JR 32:04
245  Reilly Friedman SO 32:17
360  Christian Martin SR 32:34
367  Mark Tedder SR 32:35
860  Paxton Smith FR 33:28
National Rank #7 of 315
Mountain Region Rank #3 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 100.0%
Most Likely Finish 6th at Nationals


National Champion 0.5%
Top 5 at Nationals 30.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 76.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 99.1%


Regional Champion 0.5%
Top 5 in Regional 95.2%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Joe Klecker Eduardo Herrera Ryan Forsyth Zach Perrin Adam Peterman Ethan Gonzales Reilly Friedman Christian Martin Mark Tedder Paxton Smith
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/29 326 30:48 31:23 31:40 32:04 32:12 32:14 32:34
Rocky Mountain Shootout 09/30 811 32:11 32:17 33:14
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 310 31:11 31:17 31:14 32:18 31:49 31:54
Pac-12 Championship 10/27 250 31:08 31:27 31:21 31:35 31:32 32:09 32:04 33:02 32:47 33:38
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 311 31:01 31:44 31:34 31:20 32:22 31:54 32:05





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 100% 8.0 275 0.5 2.1 6.5 9.7 11.3 11.4 10.4 10.0 8.2 6.6 5.9 5.0 3.2 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Region Championship 100% 3.7 101 0.5 5.2 44.6 31.7 13.4 4.5 0.3



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Joe Klecker 100% 14.5 0.8 1.4 2.0 3.5 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.2 5.0 5.3 3.4 5.2 3.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.3
Eduardo Herrera 100% 46.9 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6
Ryan Forsyth 100% 48.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0
Zach Perrin 100% 98.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Adam Peterman 100% 113.7 0.1
Ethan Gonzales 100% 132.7
Reilly Friedman 100% 166.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Joe Klecker 5.6 5.6 9.0 11.4 10.7 8.9 7.2 6.2 5.9 4.8 3.6 3.5 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.0
Eduardo Herrera 16.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 2.1 4.0 3.5 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.6 3.8 5.1 4.9 4.1 3.7 4.1 4.1 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.1
Ryan Forsyth 16.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 2.8 2.7 3.8 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 5.6 5.0 4.4 4.9 3.4 4.2 3.2 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.4
Zach Perrin 28.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.9 2.3 2.2 2.9 4.0 3.7 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.8
Adam Peterman 31.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.7
Ethan Gonzales 34.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.7 2.1
Reilly Friedman 41.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.5% 100.0% 0.5 0.5 1
2 5.2% 100.0% 5.2 5.2 2
3 44.6% 100.0% 33.3 9.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 44.6 3
4 31.7% 100.0% 20.3 8.9 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 31.7 4
5 13.4% 100.0% 8.1 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 13.4 5
6 4.5% 100.0% 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 4.5 6
7 0.3% 100.0% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 7
8 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 100.0% 0.5 5.2 33.3 29.4 18.7 8.6 3.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.7 94.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 100.0% 2.0 2.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Virginia Tech 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Air Force 98.3% 1.0 1.0
Mississippi 98.0% 1.0 1.0
UCLA 88.5% 1.0 0.9
Oregon 88.4% 2.0 1.8
Washington 71.7% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 69.1% 1.0 0.7
Washington St. 42.1% 2.0 0.8
Utah State 39.2% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 1.0 0.4
Alabama 34.6% 1.0 0.3
Georgetown 31.5% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 23.7% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 1.0 0.0
Tennessee 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Campbell 0.4% 1.0 0.0
California 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Butler 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Georgia 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 13.6
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 19.0