Men - Women
Tournament Championship Summary
2016 - 2017 - 2018



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.


RankSchool Regional ChampionTop 5Top 10Top 20Advance to Nationals
1 Northern Arizona Mountain 43.0% 97.9% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2 BYU Mountain 48.0% 98.0% 99.9% 100.0% 100.0%
3 Stanford West 5.2% 69.5% 95.2% 99.8% 99.8%
4 Portland West 1.4% 54.3% 90.5% 99.7% 99.8%
5 Furman Southeast 1.3% 47.9% 87.2% 99.5% 100.0%
6 Syracuse Northeast 0.5% 39.4% 83.9% 99.5% 100.0%
7 Colorado Mountain 0.5% 30.0% 76.5% 99.1% 100.0%
8 Colorado St. Mountain 0.1% 18.4% 63.3% 98.1% 100.0%
9 Southern Utah Mountain 0.1% 7.4% 41.8% 92.3% 99.8%
10 Oregon West 0.1% 13.0% 50.8% 91.5% 94.4%
11 UCLA West 5.8% 42.4% 90.8% 94.3%
12 Michigan Great Lakes 0.1% 5.4% 35.5% 91.1% 99.8%
13 Michigan State Great Lakes 2.9% 25.1% 86.7% 99.4%
14 Alabama South 38.8% 38.9%
15 Arkansas South Central 1.9% 17.9% 80.1% 100.0%
16 Campbell Southeast 1.0% 3.5% 3.5%
17 Iona Northeast 2.9% 24.4% 83.4% 97.5%
18 Washington West 1.9% 17.9% 72.0% 83.3%
19 Virginia Tech Southeast 2.2% 17.1% 81.0% 99.5%
20 Air Force Mountain 0.8% 10.7% 73.1% 98.6%
21 Mississippi South 0.5% 5.8% 57.7% 98.2%
22 San Francisco West 0.2% 4.0% 33.4% 51.9%
23 Boise State West 0.3% 3.4% 32.9% 56.1%
24 Washington St. West 0.1% 2.1% 29.1% 56.8%
25 Mid. Tenn. State South 14.2% 50.4%
26 Virginia Southeast 9.0% 26.5%
27 Wisconsin Great Lakes 0.2% 10.2% 32.3%
28 Texas South Central 1.5% 27.9% 100.0%
29 North Carolina St. Southeast 1.3% 25.8% 76.2%
30 Illinois Midwest 0.2% 13.1% 70.5%
31 Oklahoma State Midwest 0.1% 0.6% 16.5% 71.9%
32 Utah State Mountain 0.1% 6.0% 50.7%
33 Eastern Michigan Great Lakes 0.1% 4.0% 13.8%
34 Iowa State Midwest 0.4% 15.3% 95.9%
35 California West 1.1% 4.1%
36 Purdue Great Lakes 3.9% 30.2%
37 Columbia Northeast 1.2% 4.1%
38 Eastern Kentucky Southeast 0.1% 4.9% 45.8%
39 Minnesota Midwest 6.7% 88.9%
40 New Mexico Mountain 0.9% 9.1%
41 Princeton Mid-Atlantic 3.7% 69.1%
42 Indiana Great Lakes 0.1% 3.1%
43 Charlotte Southeast 0.3%
44 Kentucky Southeast 0.2% 1.8%
45 Georgetown Mid-Atlantic 0.8% 31.5%
46 Tulsa Midwest 0.6% 19.2%
47 Penn State Mid-Atlantic 0.4% 26.3%
48 Butler Great Lakes 0.1% 2.1%
49 Florida State South 0.5% 25.1%
50 Navy Mid-Atlantic 0.5% 32.9%
51 Liberty Southeast 0.3%
52 Gonzaga West 0.1% 0.8%
53 Cal Poly West
54 Weber State Mountain 1.3%
55 Penn Mid-Atlantic 0.5% 37.6%
56 Villanova Mid-Atlantic 2.0%
57 Bradley Midwest 0.4%
58 Oakland Great Lakes
59 Army West Point Northeast 0.3%
60 Texas A&M South Central 0.5%
61 Notre Dame Great Lakes 0.1%
62 Georgia Tech South 0.6%
63 UMass Lowell Northeast
64 Nebraska Midwest 0.5%
65 Tennessee South 1.3%
66 Connecticut Northeast
67 Georgia South 0.1%
68 Boston U. Northeast
69 Wake Forest Southeast 0.0%
70 Dayton Great Lakes
71 Tennessee-Martin South
72 Iowa Midwest 0.5%
73 Brown Northeast
74 Utah Valley Mountain 0.0%
75 Lipscomb South 0.0%
76 Cornell Northeast
77 Belmont South 0.1%
78 Ohio State Great Lakes
79 Morehead State Southeast
80 Clemson Southeast
81 Temple Mid-Atlantic 1.1%
82 Samford South
83 Stony Brook Northeast
84 Pittsburgh Mid-Atlantic
85 North Florida South
86 Houston South Central
87 Idaho West
88 UMKC Midwest
89 Miami (Ohio) Great Lakes
90 Arizona West
91 Auburn South 0.0%
92 Tennessee Tech South
93 William and Mary Southeast
94 East Carolina Southeast
95 Duke Southeast
96 UC Davis West
97 Tulane South Central
98 Yale Northeast
99 Missouri Midwest
100 Wyoming Mountain
101 Providence Northeast
102 South Dakota St. Midwest
103 McNeese State South Central
104 American Mid-Atlantic
105 Baylor South Central
106 Albany Northeast
107 Bucknell Mid-Atlantic
108 Harvard Northeast
109 Santa Clara West
110 Lehigh Mid-Atlantic
111 Northern Kentucky Southeast
112 Canisius Northeast
113 Texas-Arlington South Central
114 St. Joseph's (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
115 Texas State South Central
116 UC Santa Barbara West
117 Marquette Great Lakes
118 Illinois State Midwest
119 Kansas State Midwest
120 Dartmouth Northeast
121 East Tenn. St. South
122 Loyola (Ill.) Midwest
123 Loyola Marymount West
124 Saint Louis Midwest
125 Duquesne Mid-Atlantic
126 Bowling Green Great Lakes
127 Norfolk State Southeast
128 Akron Great Lakes
129 Ohio U. Great Lakes
130 Pepperdine West
131 Lamar South Central
132 Montana State Mountain
133 Central Michigan Great Lakes
134 Oklahoma Midwest
135 Coastal Carolina Southeast
136 Eastern Illinois Midwest
137 Indiana State Great Lakes
138 Wichita State Midwest
139 North Carolina Southeast
140 George Washington Mid-Atlantic
141 Fordham Northeast
142 St. Mary's (Cal.) West
143 Texas Tech Mountain
144 Florida A&M South
145 Charleston Southern Southeast
146 Cal St. Fullerton West
147 UL-Lafayette South Central
148 Rice South Central
149 North Texas South Central
150 UC Irvine West
151 Drake Midwest
152 New Mexico St. Mountain
153 Manhattan Northeast
154 St. Francis (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
155 Idaho State Mountain
156 LSU South Central
157 Rutgers Mid-Atlantic
158 Northeastern Northeast
159 Binghamton Northeast
160 South Dakota Midwest
161 Kansas Midwest
162 Louisville Southeast
163 IUPUI Great Lakes
164 George Mason Southeast
165 Appalachian State Southeast
166 Boston College Northeast
167 Marist Northeast
168 Buffalo Northeast
169 Siena Northeast
170 La Salle Mid-Atlantic
171 Southern Illinois Midwest
172 San Jose St. West
173 Florida South
174 Vermont Northeast
175 Memphis South
176 North Dakota St. Midwest
177 Monmouth Mid-Atlantic
178 Davidson Southeast
179 Maine Northeast
180 UMass Amherst Northeast
181 Miami South
182 High Point Southeast
183 UC Riverside West
184 Sacramento St. West
185 Incarnate Word South Central
186 Kent State Great Lakes
187 Cincinnati Great Lakes
188 Eastern Washington West
189 Central Connecticut Northeast
190 South Alabama South
191 Miss State South
192 Troy South
193 Toledo Great Lakes
194 Arizona State West
195 Central Arkansas South Central
196 Illinois-Chicago Midwest
197 Montana Mountain
198 New Hampshire Northeast
199 Sacred Heart Northeast
200 Wis.-Milwaukee Great Lakes
201 UMBC Mid-Atlantic
202 Stephen F. Austin South Central
203 Northern Iowa Midwest
204 Elon Southeast
205 DePaul Midwest
206 Austin Peay South
207 Seattle U. West
208 Cal St. Northridge West
209 Marshall Mid-Atlantic
210 Sam Houston St. South Central
211 Northern Colorado Mountain
212 Long Beach St. West
213 Vanderbilt South
214 UTEP Mountain
215 Chattanooga South
216 Arkansas-Little Rock South Central
217 San Diego West
218 Grand Canyon West
219 Rhode Island Northeast
220 Quinnipiac Northeast
221 Richmond Southeast
222 UT-Rio Grande Valley South Central
223 UNC-Asheville Southeast
224 Wright State Great Lakes
225 Rider Mid-Atlantic
226 Murray State Southeast
227 Portland State West
228 Abilene Christian South Central
229 Col. of Charleston Southeast
230 Seton Hall Mid-Atlantic
231 Kennesaw State South
232 Maryland-Eastern Shore Mid-Atlantic
233 Mount St. Mary's Mid-Atlantic
234 Arkansas State South Central
235 Va. Military Institute Southeast
236 Radford Southeast
237 Creighton Midwest
238 Xavier (Ohio) Great Lakes
239 South Florida South
240 UTSA South Central
241 SIU-Edwardsville Midwest
242 Western Kentucky Southeast
243 SE Louisiana South Central
244 Florida Gulf Coast South
245 IPFW Great Lakes
246 Louisiana Tech South Central
247 Holy Cross Northeast
248 Detroit Great Lakes
249 VCU Southeast
250 North Dakota Midwest
251 USC Upstate Southeast
252 Texas A&M-CC South Central
253 New Jersey Institute Mid-Atlantic
254 SE Missouri Midwest
255 Wofford Southeast
256 Stetson South
257 Lafayette Mid-Atlantic
258 Houston Baptist South Central
259 Fresno State West
260 N. Carolina A&T Southeast
261 Western Carolina Southeast
262 Valparaiso Great Lakes
263 UNC-Greensboro Southeast
264 Bethune-Cookman South
265 Winthrop Southeast
266 Grambling South Central
267 UL-Monroe South Central
268 Colgate Northeast
269 Bryant Northeast
270 Jackson State South
271 Wagner Northeast
272 Hofstra Northeast
273 Youngstown St. Great Lakes
274 Citadel Southeast
275 Fairfield Northeast
276 Savannah State South
277 Hampton Southeast
278 Mercer South
279 Hartford Northeast
280 Northwestern St. South Central
281 Prairie View South Central
282 Florida Atlantic South
283 Evansville Great Lakes
284 Howard Mid-Atlantic
285 Wis.-Green Bay Great Lakes
286 TCU South Central
287 Western Illinois Midwest
288 St. Bonaventure Northeast
289 Loyola (Md.) Mid-Atlantic
290 Chicago State Midwest
291 Gardner-Webb Southeast
292 UNC-Wilmington Southeast
293 Florida Int'l South
294 Jacksonville St. South
295 Delaware State Mid-Atlantic
296 Arkansas-Pine Bluff South Central
297 Presbyterian Southeast
298 New Orleans South Central
299 Niagara Northeast
300 Jacksonville South
301 Texas Southern South Central
302 Alabama State South
303 Oral Roberts Midwest
304 Fairleigh Dickinson Mid-Atlantic
305 Tennessee St. South
306 St. Francis (N.Y.) Northeast
307 Longwood Southeast
308 Nicholls State South Central
309 St. Peter's Mid-Atlantic
310 Coppin State Mid-Atlantic
311 South Carolina St. Southeast
312 Alcorn State South
313 Mississippi Valley South
314 N.C. Central Southeast
315 Southern South Central
316 100.0%
317 100.0%
318 100.0%
319 100.0%
320 100.0%
321 100.0%
322 100.0%
323 100.0%
324 100.0%
325 100.0%
326 100.0%
327 100.0%
328 100.0%
329 100.0%
330 100.0%
331 100.0%
332 100.0%
333 100.0%
334 100.0%
335 100.0%
336 100.0%
337 100.0%
338 100.0%
339 100.0%
340 100.0%
341 100.0%
342 100.0%
343 100.0%
344 100.0%
345 100.0%
346 100.0%
347 100.0%
348 100.0%
349 100.0%
350 100.0%
351 100.0%
352 100.0%
353 100.0%
354 100.0%
355 100.0%
356 100.0%
357 100.0%
358 100.0%
359 100.0%
360 100.0%
361 100.0%
362 100.0%
363 100.0%
364 100.0%
365 100.0%
366 100.0%
367 100.0%
368 100.0%
369 100.0%
370 100.0%
371 100.0%
372 100.0%
373 100.0%
374 100.0%
375 100.0%
376 100.0%
377 100.0%
378 100.0%
379 100.0%
380 100.0%
381 100.0%
382 100.0%
383 100.0%
384 100.0%
385 100.0%
386 100.0%
387 100.0%
388 100.0%
389 100.0%
390 100.0%
391 100.0%
392 100.0%
393 100.0%
394 100.0%
395 100.0%
396 100.0%
397 100.0%
398 100.0%
399 100.0%
400 100.0%