SMU
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
288  Tova Magnusson FR 20:35
309  Karoline Skatteboe SO 20:38
322  Agnes Sjostrom FR 20:40
362  Melanie Stemper SO 20:44
397  Shanoah Souza SO 20:47
487  Holly Archer SO 20:55
610  Caitlin Keen SR 21:07
1,706  Julie Vanderhout FR 22:17
1,908  Margaret Brennan FR 22:29
2,029  Anna Nelson FR 22:38
2,567  Lauren Zabaleta FR 23:11
2,907  Claire Trotter SO 23:42
National Rank #61 of 340
South Central Region Rank #4 of 36
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 34.3%
Most Likely Finish 2nd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.7%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 93.9%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Tova Magnusson Karoline Skatteboe Agnes Sjostrom Melanie Stemper Shanoah Souza Holly Archer Caitlin Keen Julie Vanderhout Margaret Brennan Anna Nelson Lauren Zabaleta
Ken Garland Invitational 09/28 1055 20:48 21:07 20:51 20:52 21:35 21:54 22:29 22:34 23:12
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/04 914 20:43 20:41 20:54 20:34 20:51 20:52 21:10 22:12 22:31
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 905 20:50 20:33 20:52 21:13 20:26 20:55 21:02
AAC Championships 11/02 707 20:07 20:33 20:17 20:27 21:12 20:47 20:47 23:12 22:56
South Central Region Championships 11/15 796 20:10 20:46 20:30 20:48 20:35 21:26 20:55
NCAA Championship 11/23 955 21:12 20:42 20:30 20:46 20:55 21:27





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 34.3% 28.5 711 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.4 3.6 4.7 6.0 10.8
Region Championship 100% 3.3 125 32.9 32.7 18.6 9.6 4.2 1.8 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tova Magnusson 34.6% 165.4
Karoline Skatteboe 34.4% 173.3
Agnes Sjostrom 34.4% 176.3
Melanie Stemper 34.3% 188.6
Shanoah Souza 34.3% 196.2
Holly Archer 34.3% 212.5
Caitlin Keen 34.3% 230.8


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Tova Magnusson 21.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.9 2.8 3.8 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.3 5.2
Karoline Skatteboe 23.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.5 5.2 5.1 5.9 5.3 6.3 5.3
Agnes Sjostrom 24.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.7
Melanie Stemper 26.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 3.6 4.4 4.8 4.9 5.2
Shanoah Souza 28.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.1 3.2 3.3 4.3 4.0 4.4
Holly Archer 33.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.6
Caitlin Keen 40.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 32.9% 100.0% 32.9 32.9 2
3 32.7% 3.3% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 31.7 1.1 3
4 18.6% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.4 0.2 4
5 9.6% 9.6 5
6 4.2% 4.2 6
7 1.8% 1.8 7
8 0.1% 0.1 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
Total 100% 34.3% 32.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 65.7 32.9 1.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Baylor 3.8% 2.0 0.1
UTSA 2.6% 2.0 0.1
Lamar 1.2% 2.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.7% 2.0 0.0
Oklahoma State 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Northern Arizona 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 2.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 5.0