Yale
Men - Women
2014 - 2015 - 2016
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
153  Dana Klein SO 20:11
156  Frances Schmiede JR 20:11
350  Kelli Reagan SO 20:41
414  Meredith Rizzo JR 20:47
436  Ellie Atkinson FR 20:49
447  Andrea Masterson FR 20:50
464  Emily Waligurski JR 20:51
685  Gabi Rinne FR 21:11
837  Emily Barnes JR 21:23
848  Shannon McDonnell SR 21:24
1,108  Elizabeth McDonald SR 21:42
1,177  Melissa Fairchild SO 21:47
National Rank #39 of 339
Northeast Region Rank #4 of 43
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 28.9%
Most Likely Finish 3rd at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 4.0%


Regional Champion 0.3%
Top 5 in Regional 70.8%
Top 10 in Regional 99.4%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Dana Klein Frances Schmiede Kelli Reagan Meredith Rizzo Ellie Atkinson Andrea Masterson Emily Waligurski Gabi Rinne Emily Barnes Shannon McDonnell Elizabeth McDonald
Panorama Farms Invitational 09/26 759 20:04 20:25 20:38 21:13 20:44 20:43 20:55 21:16
NEICAAA Championship 10/10 1179 21:09 21:26 21:18
D1 Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/17 805 20:21 20:20 20:40 21:01 20:53 20:39 21:11
Ivy League Championships 10/30 721 20:07 20:06 20:37 20:48 20:41 21:00 21:13 21:23 21:48 21:44
Northeast Region Championships 11/13 742 20:20 20:04 20:59 20:21 20:48 21:39 21:35





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 28.9% 25.4 612 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 2.0 2.1 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.6 0.7
Region Championship 100% 4.6 161 0.3 9.1 26.0 21.0 14.3 11.2 7.3 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dana Klein 31.3% 107.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Frances Schmiede 31.3% 106.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Kelli Reagan 28.9% 186.8
Meredith Rizzo 28.9% 199.9
Ellie Atkinson 28.9% 203.5
Andrea Masterson 28.9% 205.9
Emily Waligurski 28.9% 209.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Dana Klein 17.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.8 3.9 4.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.6 6.0 5.4 4.7 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.3 3.1
Frances Schmiede 17.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.4 4.3 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.4 5.8 5.3 5.5 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7
Kelli Reagan 38.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9
Meredith Rizzo 45.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.3
Ellie Atkinson 48.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2
Andrea Masterson 50.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7
Emily Waligurski 51.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.3 1
2 9.1% 100.0% 9.1 9.1 2
3 26.0% 46.2% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.1 2.9 14.0 12.0 3
4 21.0% 22.6% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 16.3 4.8 4
5 14.3% 14.8% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 12.2 2.1 5
6 11.2% 4.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.7 0.5 6
7 7.3% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.1 7
8 5.2% 5.2 8
9 3.2% 3.2 9
10 1.7% 1.7 10
11 0.4% 0.4 11
12 0.2% 0.2 12
13 13
14 0.0% 0.0 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
Total 100% 28.9% 0.3 9.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.1 4.4 71.1 9.5 19.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 43.8% 1.0 0.4
Columbia 26.3% 1.0 0.3
Kansas 26.0% 1.0 0.3
Stephen F. Austin 9.1% 1.0 0.1
Colorado St. 8.8% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Brown 5.0% 2.0 0.1
Harvard 3.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 2.9% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 2.3% 2.0 0.0
Penn 1.8% 1.0 0.0
Florida 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 1.4% 1.0 0.0
Cornell 1.3% 2.0 0.0
Bradley 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.3% 1.0 0.0
San Francisco 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Michigan 0.2% 2.0 0.0
New Hampshire 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Connecticut 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.5
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 7.0