Men - Women
Tournament Championship Summary
2014 - 2015 - 2016



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.


RankSchool Regional ChampionTop 5Top 10Top 20Advance to Nationals
1 New Mexico Mountain 89.0% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2 Colorado Mountain 3.8% 66.0% 90.4% 99.6% 99.9%
3 Virginia Southeast 1.6% 46.5% 78.9% 98.4% 100.0%
4 Oregon West 1.7% 45.8% 78.4% 98.2% 100.0%
5 Providence Northeast 1.0% 40.8% 73.8% 97.9% 100.0%
6 North Carolina St. Southeast 1.1% 35.7% 67.6% 96.5% 100.0%
7 Arkansas South Central 0.2% 26.9% 64.5% 97.2% 100.0%
8 Michigan Great Lakes 0.8% 34.7% 69.3% 97.0% 99.9%
9 Boise State West 0.1% 21.3% 64.8% 98.9% 99.9%
10 Oklahoma State Midwest 0.2% 20.2% 52.6% 91.4% 99.4%
11 Notre Dame Great Lakes 0.1% 10.6% 43.1% 95.2% 99.5%
12 Washington West 0.2% 15.9% 46.3% 91.4% 99.5%
13 Stanford West 0.1% 13.9% 42.7% 89.8% 99.4%
14 Penn State Mid-Atlantic 0.0% 5.4% 23.9% 76.9% 99.7%
15 Michigan State Great Lakes 0.1% 4.2% 20.5% 73.5% 96.4%
16 Miss State South 0.0% 3.9% 18.9% 70.6% 98.5%
17 Iowa State Midwest 0.0% 3.0% 16.2% 67.7% 99.6%
18 Syracuse Northeast 1.4% 10.6% 63.0% 96.9%
19 Princeton Mid-Atlantic 0.5% 5.2% 55.8% 96.6%
20 Vanderbilt South 0.8% 6.7% 46.5% 93.2%
21 BYU Mountain 0.0% 1.1% 7.0% 43.0% 81.6%
22 William and Mary Southeast 0.1% 1.0% 19.0% 45.7%
23 Minnesota Midwest 0.3% 3.5% 36.4% 94.8%
24 North Carolina Southeast 0.2% 1.3% 16.4% 45.9%
25 Georgetown Mid-Atlantic 0.3% 3.6% 34.0% 89.2%
26 Alabama South 0.1% 1.8% 23.0% 44.4%
27 Utah Mountain 0.2% 2.4% 28.8% 70.2%
28 Weber State Mountain 0.0% 1.4% 17.6% 51.5%
29 Purdue Great Lakes 1.2% 16.6% 66.7%
30 Colorado St. Mountain 0.1% 1.2% 12.7% 37.0%
31 Auburn South 0.1% 5.3% 18.0%
32 Florida State South 0.1% 3.5% 12.1%
33 Wisconsin Great Lakes 0.0% 0.4% 9.0% 32.8%
34 Air Force Mountain 0.0% 0.1% 3.3% 22.4%
35 San Francisco West 0.0% 0.9% 3.4%
36 Gonzaga West 0.0% 1.1% 4.7%
37 Arizona State West 0.1% 1.8% 13.5%
38 Boston College Northeast 0.8% 3.3%
39 Yale Northeast 0.1% 4.0% 28.9%
40 Villanova Mid-Atlantic 0.0% 3.1% 43.7%
41 Columbia Northeast 0.0% 2.8% 30.8%
42 Brown Northeast 1.4% 9.8%
43 Kansas Midwest 0.0% 1.5% 33.9%
44 Northern Arizona Mountain 0.0% 0.9% 7.8%
45 Harvard Northeast 0.0% 0.5% 6.3%
46 Eastern Michigan Great Lakes 0.4% 2.9%
47 Penn Mid-Atlantic 0.8% 10.4%
48 Lipscomb South 0.1% 1.3% 11.2%
49 California West 0.9% 10.2%
50 West Virginia Mid-Atlantic 0.0% 1.5% 25.6%
51 Tulsa Midwest 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 12.9%
52 Indiana Great Lakes 0.6% 10.1%
53 Bradley Midwest 0.1% 5.3%
54 Dartmouth Northeast 0.0% 0.2% 5.3%
55 Cal Poly West 0.0% 0.2% 3.6%
56 Eastern Washington West 0.1% 1.9%
57 New Hampshire Northeast 0.1% 0.6%
58 Oklahoma Midwest 0.0% 2.7%
59 Cornell Northeast 0.0% 0.3% 3.3%
60 Coastal Carolina Southeast
61 Florida South 2.0%
62 Mississippi South 0.1% 4.3%
63 Baylor South Central 11.7%
64 Butler Great Lakes 0.0%
65 Eastern Kentucky Southeast 0.2% 4.5%
66 Wake Forest Southeast
67 Furman Southeast
68 Portland West 0.1%
69 Illinois Midwest 1.0%
70 Mid. Tenn. State South 0.1%
71 Clemson Southeast 0.2%
72 Arizona West 0.0%
73 Lamar South Central
74 Loyola Marymount West 0.1%
75 Texas A&M South Central 8.2%
76 Rice South Central 5.9%
77 Ohio State Great Lakes 0.0% 1.5%
78 Wyoming Mountain 0.1%
79 Connecticut Northeast 0.0%
80 North Dakota St. Midwest
81 Bowling Green Great Lakes 0.1%
82 James Madison Southeast 0.2%
83 SMU South Central 21.4%
84 Utah State Mountain 0.1%
85 UCLA West
86 Stony Brook Northeast
87 Washington St. West 0.1%
88 Virginia Tech Southeast 1.5%
89 South Dakota Midwest
90 Xavier (Ohio) Great Lakes 0.0%
91 Missouri Midwest 0.3%
92 Tennessee South
93 Texas South Central 43.9%
94 Duke Southeast 0.2%
95 Western Michigan Great Lakes
96 Liberty Southeast
97 Wichita State Midwest 0.5%
98 UC Davis West
99 La Salle Mid-Atlantic
100 Nevada Mountain
101 Idaho West
102 Central Michigan Great Lakes 0.0%
103 Kentucky Southeast
104 Northern Illinois Midwest
105 Belmont South
106 Texas Tech Mountain
107 Pittsburgh Mid-Atlantic 0.3%
108 Montana Mountain
109 Kansas State Midwest
110 Rutgers Mid-Atlantic
111 Sacramento St. West
112 Stephen F. Austin South Central 9.1%
113 Bucknell Mid-Atlantic 0.0%
114 Illinois State Midwest
115 Elon Southeast
116 Louisville Southeast 0.0%
117 Marquette Great Lakes
118 Chattanooga South
119 Drake Midwest
120 Temple Mid-Atlantic
121 Iona Northeast
122 Richmond Southeast
123 Rider Mid-Atlantic
124 Buffalo Northeast
125 Miami (Ohio) Great Lakes
126 Quinnipiac Northeast
127 Albany Northeast
128 Ohio U. Great Lakes
129 Duquesne Mid-Atlantic
130 Western Kentucky Southeast
131 Indiana State Great Lakes
132 South Alabama South
133 Appalachian State Southeast
134 Santa Clara West
135 Texas-Arlington South Central
136 UMBC Mid-Atlantic
137 San Jose St. West
138 Creighton Midwest
139 Georgia South
140 Navy Mid-Atlantic
141 Iowa Midwest
142 Montana State Mountain
143 UC Riverside West
144 Oregon State West
145 Loyola (Ill.) Midwest 0.0%
146 Idaho State Mountain
147 Tennessee-Martin South
148 Dayton Great Lakes
149 Portland State West
150 Saint Louis Midwest
151 Davidson Southeast
152 UC Santa Barbara West
153 South Dakota St. Midwest
154 Oakland Great Lakes
155 High Point Southeast
156 Southern Miss. South
157 UTEP Mountain
158 South Carolina Southeast
159 North Florida South
160 Northeastern Northeast
161 South Florida South
162 George Washington Mid-Atlantic
163 Maryland Mid-Atlantic
164 McNeese State South Central
165 UMass Amherst Northeast
166 Northwestern Midwest
167 Utah Valley Mountain
168 Georgia Tech South
169 Toledo Great Lakes
170 San Diego St. West
171 Arkansas State South Central
172 San Diego West
173 East Carolina Southeast
174 UMKC Midwest
175 Eastern Illinois Midwest
176 Memphis South
177 Florida A&M South
178 Florida Gulf Coast South
179 Army West Point Northeast
180 Seattle U. West
181 Holy Cross Northeast
182 Northern Iowa Midwest
183 Southern Utah Mountain
184 St. Joseph's (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
185 Tulane South Central
186 Charlotte Southeast
187 IUPUI Great Lakes
188 Boston U. Northeast
189 SE Missouri Midwest
190 Jacksonville South
191 Col. of Charleston Southeast
192 Monmouth Mid-Atlantic
193 Vermont Northeast
194 Marist Northeast
195 UCF South
196 Nebraska Midwest
197 Murray State Southeast
198 UNC-Greensboro Southeast
199 USC West
200 Kent State Great Lakes
201 Fordham Northeast
202 Canisius Northeast
203 UNLV West
204 Delaware Mid-Atlantic
205 George Mason Southeast
206 St. John's Northeast
207 LSU South Central
208 Illinois-Chicago Midwest
209 Sacred Heart Northeast
210 Northern Colorado Mountain
211 TCU South Central
212 Cal St. Fullerton West
213 Wis.-Milwaukee Great Lakes
214 North Texas South Central
215 Long Beach St. West
216 Georgia State South
217 Houston South Central
218 DePaul Midwest
219 St. Mary's (Cal.) West
220 Manhattan Northeast
221 Morehead State Southeast
222 Hawaii West
223 Florida Atlantic South
224 Cincinnati Great Lakes
225 Binghamton Northeast
226 UNC-Asheville Southeast
227 Pepperdine West
228 Fresno State West
229 American Mid-Atlantic
230 Sam Houston St. South Central
231 SIU-Edwardsville Midwest
232 Lehigh Mid-Atlantic
233 New Mexico St. Mountain
234 Siena Northeast
235 UTSA South Central
236 Central Connecticut Northeast
237 Alabama State South
238 VCU Southeast
239 Arkansas-Little Rock South Central
240 Wright State Great Lakes
241 Central Arkansas South Central
242 East Tenn. St. South
243 Tennessee Tech South
244 Samford South
245 Loyola (Md.) Mid-Atlantic
246 Hofstra Northeast
247 Marshall Mid-Atlantic
248 Texas A&M-CC South Central
249 Pacific West
250 Hampton Southeast
251 Towson Mid-Atlantic
252 Western Carolina Southeast
253 UL-Lafayette South Central
254 Akron Great Lakes
255 Rhode Island Northeast
256 Cal St. Northridge West
257 UC Irvine West
258 Bryant Northeast
259 Youngstown St. Great Lakes
260 Troy South
261 Stetson South
262 Detroit Great Lakes
263 Missouri State Midwest
264 Georgia Southern South
265 Hartford Northeast
266 Lafayette Mid-Atlantic
267 Ball State Great Lakes
268 Maryland-Eastern Shore Mid-Atlantic
269 Houston Baptist South Central
270 Radford Southeast
271 IPFW Great Lakes
272 Maine Northeast
273 Mercer South
274 Fairfield Northeast
275 North Dakota Midwest
276 Texas State South Central
277 UAB South
278 Colgate Northeast
279 Wofford Southeast
280 Kennesaw State South
281 Miami South
282 Campbell Southeast
283 UNC-Wilmington Southeast
284 Wis.-Green Bay Great Lakes
285 Evansville Great Lakes
286 St. Bonaventure Northeast
287 Southern Illinois Midwest
288 Winthrop Southeast
289 Valparaiso Great Lakes
290 Austin Peay South
291 Gardner-Webb Southeast
292 Seton Hall Mid-Atlantic
293 Cleveland St. Great Lakes
294 Citadel Southeast
295 Niagara Northeast
296 Morgan State Mid-Atlantic
297 Fairleigh Dickinson Mid-Atlantic
298 USC Upstate Southeast
299 Bethune-Cookman South
300 Robert Morris Mid-Atlantic
301 Va. Military Institute Southeast
302 N. Carolina A&T Southeast
303 SE Louisiana South Central
304 Cal St. Bakersfield West
305 Presbyterian Southeast
306 Wagner Northeast
307 LIU Brooklyn Northeast
308 Western Illinois Midwest
309 Mount St. Mary's Mid-Atlantic
310 Howard Mid-Atlantic
311 Prairie View South Central
312 Jacksonville St. South
313 St. Francis (N.Y.) Northeast
314 Grambling South Central
315 Texas Southern South Central
316 Delaware State Mid-Atlantic
317 Norfolk State Southeast
318 Louisiana Tech South Central
319 Longwood Southeast
320 Alcorn State South
321 Mississippi Valley South
322 Jackson State South
323 Charleston Southern Southeast
324 New Jersey Institute Mid-Atlantic
325 St. Peter's Mid-Atlantic
326 UL-Monroe South Central
327 Savannah State South
328 Alabama A&M South
329 Coppin State Mid-Atlantic
330 Oral Roberts Midwest
331 Tennessee St. South
332 Nicholls State South Central
333 Chicago State Midwest
334 South Carolina St. Southeast
335 New Orleans South Central
336 Southern South Central
337 N.C. Central Southeast
338 Arkansas-Pine Bluff South Central
339 Northwestern St. South Central
340 100.0%
341 100.0%
342 100.0%
343 100.0%
344 100.0%
345 100.0%
346 100.0%
347 100.0%
348 100.0%
349 100.0%
350 100.0%
351 100.0%
352 100.0%
353 100.0%
354 100.0%
355 100.0%
356 100.0%
357 100.0%
358 100.0%
359 100.0%
360 100.0%
361 100.0%
362 100.0%
363 100.0%
364 100.0%
365 100.0%
366 100.0%
367 100.0%
368 100.0%
369 100.0%
370 100.0%
371 100.0%
372 100.0%
373 100.0%
374 100.0%
375 100.0%
376 100.0%
377 100.0%
378 100.0%
379 100.0%
380 100.0%
381 100.0%
382 100.0%
383 100.0%
384 100.0%
385 100.0%
386 100.0%
387 100.0%
388 100.0%
389 100.0%
390 100.0%
391 100.0%
392 100.0%
393 100.0%
394 100.0%
395 100.0%
396 100.0%
397 100.0%
398 100.0%
399 100.0%
400 100.0%