Virginia
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
29  Frances Schmiede SR 19:32
55  Beth Hawling SR 19:44
288  Emily Mulhern JR 20:29
340  Emma Call SO 20:35
389  Hannah Moran FR 20:40
997  Kiera Bothwell FR 21:28
1,151  Georgie Mackenzie SO 21:38
1,341  Doria Martingayle FR 21:50
1,416  Megan Rebholz SR 21:55
1,780  Briana Gess FR 22:19
National Rank #25 of 348
Southeast Region Rank #3 of 50
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 31.0%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 10 at Nationals 1.5%
Top 20 at Nationals 14.4%


Regional Champion 0.6%
Top 5 in Regional 70.1%
Top 10 in Regional 99.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Frances Schmiede Beth Hawling Emily Mulhern Emma Call Hannah Moran Kiera Bothwell Georgie Mackenzie Doria Martingayle Megan Rebholz Briana Gess
Panorama Farms Invitational 09/23 471 19:36 19:40 20:21 20:16 20:30 21:36 21:57
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 687 19:33 19:54 20:44 20:38 21:25 22:43
ACC Championship 10/27 687 19:35 19:41 20:49 20:44 21:23 21:55 23:06 22:01
Southeast Region Championships 11/10 620 19:23 19:40 21:12 20:23 20:51 21:37 21:46





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 31.0% 20.5 509 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.9 2.2 1.4 2.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1
Region Championship 100% 4.7 161 0.6 7.5 20.9 21.4 19.8 15.8 7.7 3.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Frances Schmiede 97.4% 39.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.6
Beth Hawling 68.3% 68.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.8
Emily Mulhern 31.0% 170.6
Emma Call 31.0% 187.8
Hannah Moran 31.0% 196.4
Kiera Bothwell 31.3% 245.2
Georgie Mackenzie 31.5% 248.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Frances Schmiede 6.4 6.4 7.0 7.6 9.5 8.0 8.5 7.7 7.5 7.1 6.4 4.9 4.9 3.5 2.5 2.7 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Beth Hawling 11.1 0.4 1.5 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.2 6.0 6.4 7.4 7.4 8.9 7.5 5.9 5.4 4.5 3.7 3.3 2.8 1.9 1.7 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.4
Emily Mulhern 39.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6
Emma Call 45.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1
Hannah Moran 51.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5
Kiera Bothwell 113.4
Georgie Mackenzie 129.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.6% 100.0% 0.6 0.6 1
2 7.5% 100.0% 7.5 7.5 2
3 20.9% 47.1% 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.4 11.1 9.9 3
4 21.4% 34.9% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 1.6 0.8 1.5 0.8 0.9 0.3 13.9 7.5 4
5 19.8% 23.2% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.7 15.2 4.6 5
6 15.8% 5.7% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 14.9 0.9 6
7 7.7% 1.3% 0.1 0.1 7.6 0.1 7
8 3.8% 1.3% 0.1 3.7 0.1 8
9 2.1% 2.1 9
10 0.6% 0.6 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 0.1% 0.1 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
40 40
41 41
42 42
43 43
44 44
45 45
46 46
47 47
48 48
49 49
50 50
Total 100% 31.0% 0.6 7.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 2.5 2.3 3.5 3.2 3.7 2.0 2.6 0.9 69.1 8.0 23.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Air Force 32.3% 1.0 0.3
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Baylor 17.5% 1.0 0.2
Yale 14.2% 1.0 0.1
Florida State 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Notre Dame 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.9
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 4.0