Men - Women
Tournament Championship Summary
2016 - 2017 - 2018



Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.


RankSchool Regional ChampionTop 5Top 10Top 20Advance to Nationals
1 New Mexico Mountain 31.0% 96.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2 San Francisco West 31.5% 93.6% 99.7% 100.0% 100.0%
3 Colorado Mountain 18.3% 83.6% 98.5% 100.0% 100.0%
4 Oregon West 13.0% 77.2% 97.8% 100.0% 100.0%
5 North Carolina St. Southeast 2.8% 45.6% 90.1% 99.7% 100.0%
6 Stanford West 2.5% 40.3% 86.9% 99.3% 100.0%
7 Boise State West 0.6% 20.3% 72.2% 97.8% 99.8%
8 Arkansas South Central 0.4% 16.0% 61.1% 94.3% 100.0%
9 Michigan Great Lakes 0.1% 8.8% 46.7% 89.4% 99.1%
10 Furman Southeast 2.9% 32.7% 87.3% 98.2%
11 Wisconsin Great Lakes 2.8% 23.4% 74.8% 97.0%
12 Washington West 3.5% 25.3% 78.3% 97.6%
13 Penn State Mid-Atlantic 1.9% 21.6% 71.7% 97.8%
14 Michigan State Great Lakes 1.6% 20.3% 67.7% 93.7%
15 Utah State Mountain 1.5% 21.5% 71.3% 94.0%
16 Minnesota Midwest 0.9% 18.9% 78.0% 99.9%
17 BYU Mountain 0.1% 1.0% 15.9% 63.1% 89.2%
18 Providence Northeast 0.5% 14.5% 73.7% 95.9%
19 Villanova Mid-Atlantic 1.0% 15.8% 63.0% 91.2%
20 California West 6.5% 49.8% 76.7%
21 Iowa State Midwest 0.3% 6.9% 49.6% 98.8%
22 Air Force Mountain 0.1% 3.4% 30.7% 57.2%
23 Mississippi South 0.2% 5.6% 34.7% 97.5%
24 Georgia South 0.1% 3.7% 40.3% 97.4%
25 Virginia Southeast 0.1% 1.5% 14.4% 31.0%
26 Indiana Great Lakes 1.6% 22.7% 57.2%
27 Utah Mountain 1.5% 22.9% 59.0%
28 Louisville Southeast 1.1% 15.5% 40.7%
29 Eastern Kentucky Southeast 0.9% 15.6% 50.1%
30 Columbia Northeast 1.4% 18.4% 80.5%
31 Eastern Michigan Great Lakes 0.8% 12.0% 43.2%
32 Arizona West 0.2% 4.9% 13.3%
33 Syracuse Northeast 0.1% 3.0% 9.0%
34 Virginia Tech Southeast 0.4% 8.2% 34.2%
35 Ohio State Great Lakes 0.7% 9.9% 52.1%
36 Iona Northeast 0.3% 6.5% 23.4%
37 Georgetown Mid-Atlantic 0.9% 9.0% 35.7%
38 Northern Arizona Mountain 0.1% 4.4% 28.3%
39 Notre Dame Great Lakes 0.2% 2.0% 10.4%
40 Missouri Midwest 1.0% 6.3%
41 Baylor South Central 0.9% 18.2%
42 Yale Northeast 0.1% 2.7% 18.8%
43 Samford South 0.1% 1.7% 11.5%
44 Abilene Christian South Central 0.2% 1.8%
45 Dartmouth Northeast 0.1% 2.7% 25.6%
46 Princeton Mid-Atlantic 1.0% 13.3%
47 Portland West 0.2% 1.6%
48 Duke Southeast 0.6% 7.8%
49 Cornell Northeast 0.1% 2.3% 16.4%
50 Texas South Central 1.2% 58.4%
51 Wake Forest Southeast 0.5% 5.8%
52 UCLA West 0.1% 0.3% 1.1%
53 Kentucky Southeast 0.1% 0.8%
54 North Carolina Southeast 0.0%
55 Oklahoma State Midwest 0.1% 0.7% 12.9%
56 Florida State South 0.4% 6.1%
57 Nevada Mountain 0.3% 2.2%
58 Dayton Great Lakes 0.1% 1.6%
59 Colorado St. Mountain 0.1% 3.6%
60 Northwestern Midwest 0.9%
61 San Jose St. West 0.1%
62 Loyola Marymount West
63 Auburn South 0.5%
64 West Virginia Mid-Atlantic 0.2% 1.6%
65 Arizona State West 0.5%
66 SMU South Central 0.2% 21.4%
67 Miss State South 0.7%
68 Kansas Midwest
69 Washington St. West
70 New Hampshire Northeast
71 Purdue Great Lakes 0.1%
72 Penn Mid-Atlantic 0.1%
73 Toledo Great Lakes 0.9%
74 UTEP Mountain
75 Texas A&M South Central 2.7%
76 Brown Northeast 0.4%
77 Georgia Tech South 0.1% 1.6%
78 Pittsburgh Mid-Atlantic 0.4%
79 Richmond Southeast 0.6%
80 James Madison Southeast 0.1%
81 Davidson Southeast 0.3%
82 Tulsa Midwest 0.8%
83 Western Michigan Great Lakes
84 Charlotte Southeast
85 Miami (Ohio) Great Lakes 0.0%
86 South Dakota Midwest 1.3%
87 Bucknell Mid-Atlantic
88 UC Santa Barbara West
89 Oakland Great Lakes
90 Montana State Mountain 0.2%
91 Idaho West
92 Vanderbilt South 0.6%
93 Oregon State West
94 Maryland Mid-Atlantic
95 Xavier (Ohio) Great Lakes
96 Cal Poly West
97 North Florida South
98 Alabama South 1.1%
99 Loyola (Ill.) Midwest
100 Oklahoma Midwest
101 Buffalo Northeast
102 UMass Amherst Northeast
103 Northern Iowa Midwest 0.6%
104 Bradley Midwest 0.3%
105 Idaho State Mountain
106 Tennessee South
107 Iowa Midwest
108 Northern Illinois Midwest 0.1%
109 Bowling Green Great Lakes
110 Creighton Midwest
111 Connecticut Northeast
112 Weber State Mountain
113 Marquette Great Lakes 0.1%
114 UC Riverside West
115 Temple Mid-Atlantic
116 Wyoming Mountain
117 Central Michigan Great Lakes
118 Harvard Northeast
119 Southern Utah Mountain
120 TCU South Central
121 Utah Valley Mountain
122 Stony Brook Northeast
123 North Texas South Central
124 Indiana State Great Lakes
125 UMKC Midwest
126 South Dakota St. Midwest
127 Montana Mountain
128 Wofford Southeast
129 UAB South
130 Quinnipiac Northeast
131 Butler Great Lakes
132 UMass Lowell Northeast
133 Tulane South Central
134 William and Mary Southeast
135 Rice South Central
136 Duquesne Mid-Atlantic
137 East Carolina Southeast
138 Elon Southeast
139 High Point Southeast
140 Ohio U. Great Lakes
141 Army West Point Northeast
142 Texas Tech Mountain
143 Boston College Northeast
144 Missouri State Midwest
145 Lipscomb South
146 McNeese State South Central
147 Cal St. Fullerton West
148 North Dakota St. Midwest
149 Kansas State Midwest
150 Illinois Midwest
151 New Mexico St. Mountain
152 Gonzaga West
153 Marist Northeast
154 Eastern Washington West
155 Canisius Northeast
156 Jacksonville South
157 Lamar South Central
158 Hampton Southeast
159 Lehigh Mid-Atlantic
160 Belmont South
161 Navy Mid-Atlantic
162 UC Davis West
163 IPFW Great Lakes
164 Albany Northeast
165 Southern Miss. South
166 Manhattan Northeast
167 Vermont Northeast
168 George Mason Southeast
169 Illinois State Midwest
170 South Alabama South
171 Delaware Mid-Atlantic
172 Nebraska Midwest
173 Sacramento St. West
174 Clemson Southeast
175 Wichita State Midwest
176 Mid. Tenn. State South
177 Saint Louis Midwest
178 American Mid-Atlantic
179 Sacred Heart Northeast
180 Holy Cross Northeast
181 La Salle Mid-Atlantic
182 SE Missouri Midwest
183 Col. of Charleston Southeast
184 East Tenn. St. South
185 George Washington Mid-Atlantic
186 Eastern Illinois Midwest
187 South Carolina Southeast
188 Fordham Northeast
189 Akron Great Lakes
190 Florida Int'l South
191 Northeastern Northeast
192 Stephen F. Austin South Central
193 Florida South
194 St. Joseph's (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
195 Memphis South
196 Appalachian State Southeast
197 Grand Canyon West
198 IUPUI Great Lakes
199 Texas A&M-CC South Central
200 LSU South Central
201 Seattle U. West
202 Kent State Great Lakes
203 Tennessee-Martin South
204 San Diego West
205 Cincinnati Great Lakes
206 Binghamton Northeast
207 Rhode Island Northeast
208 Southern Illinois Midwest
209 Murray State Southeast
210 Long Beach St. West
211 Northern Colorado Mountain
212 Liberty Southeast
213 Texas-Arlington South Central
214 UNLV West
215 Texas State South Central
216 Chattanooga South
217 St. Francis (Pa.) Mid-Atlantic
218 Wright State Great Lakes
219 Ball State Great Lakes
220 Boston U. Northeast
221 Drake Midwest
222 Campbell Southeast
223 Rutgers Mid-Atlantic
224 Monmouth Mid-Atlantic
225 Incarnate Word South Central
226 Houston South Central
227 Wis.-Milwaukee Great Lakes
228 Siena Northeast
229 Nebraska-Omaha Midwest
230 Arkansas State South Central
231 Central Connecticut Northeast
232 Cleveland St. Great Lakes
233 SIU-Edwardsville Midwest
234 Lafayette Mid-Atlantic
235 Seton Hall Mid-Atlantic
236 Florida A&M South
237 Santa Clara West
238 UL-Lafayette South Central
239 St. Mary's (Cal.) West
240 Loyola (Md.) Mid-Atlantic
241 Central Arkansas South Central
242 Northern Kentucky Southeast
243 Youngstown St. Great Lakes
244 Coastal Carolina Southeast
245 UTSA South Central
246 UNC-Greensboro Southeast
247 Illinois-Chicago Midwest
248 Pacific West
249 Georgia State South
250 Portland State West
251 Miami South
252 North Dakota Midwest
253 San Diego St. West
254 DePaul Midwest
255 Towson Mid-Atlantic
256 Maine Northeast
257 Fresno State West
258 St. John's Northeast
259 Western Carolina Southeast
260 UC Irvine West
261 Florida Atlantic South
262 UCF South
263 Morehead State Southeast
264 Georgia Southern South
265 UT-Rio Grande Valley South Central
266 USC West
267 Cal St. Northridge West
268 Kennesaw State South
269 VCU Southeast
270 South Florida South
271 Detroit Great Lakes
272 Arkansas-Little Rock South Central
273 UNC-Asheville Southeast
274 Marshall Mid-Atlantic
275 Rider Mid-Atlantic
276 Mercer South
277 Cal St. Bakersfield West
278 Stetson South
279 Pepperdine West
280 Troy South
281 Bryant Northeast
282 Tennessee Tech South
283 Colgate Northeast
284 UMBC Mid-Atlantic
285 Va. Military Institute Southeast
286 Norfolk State Southeast
287 Radford Southeast
288 Winthrop Southeast
289 UNC-Wilmington Southeast
290 Hofstra Northeast
291 Wis.-Green Bay Great Lakes
292 St. Bonaventure Northeast
293 Fairfield Northeast
294 Evansville Great Lakes
295 Hawaii West
296 Sam Houston St. South Central
297 USC Upstate Southeast
298 Citadel Southeast
299 Valparaiso Great Lakes
300 Alabama State South
301 Western Illinois Midwest
302 Hartford Northeast
303 N. Carolina A&T Southeast
304 Robert Morris Mid-Atlantic
305 LIU Brooklyn Northeast
306 Charleston Southern Southeast
307 Austin Peay South
308 Wagner Northeast
309 Fairleigh Dickinson Mid-Atlantic
310 Morgan State Mid-Atlantic
311 Mount St. Mary's Mid-Atlantic
312 Northwestern St. South Central
313 Houston Baptist South Central
314 SE Louisiana South Central
315 Mississippi Valley South
316 Florida Gulf Coast South
317 UL-Monroe South Central
318 Oral Roberts Midwest
319 Gardner-Webb Southeast
320 New Jersey Institute Mid-Atlantic
321 Louisiana Tech South Central
322 Presbyterian Southeast
323 Howard Mid-Atlantic
324 Grambling South Central
325 Jacksonville St. South
326 Maryland-Eastern Shore Mid-Atlantic
327 Niagara Northeast
328 Western Kentucky Southeast
329 Bethune-Cookman South
330 Prairie View South Central
331 St. Francis (N.Y.) Northeast
332 Delaware State Mid-Atlantic
333 Alabama A&M South
334 Jackson State South
335 Nicholls State South Central
336 Tennessee St. South
337 Alcorn State South
338 Southern South Central
339 Longwood Southeast
340 Texas Southern South Central
341 Coppin State Mid-Atlantic
342 New Orleans South Central
343 Arkansas-Pine Bluff South Central
344 South Carolina St. Southeast
345 St. Peter's Mid-Atlantic
346 Savannah State South
347 Chicago State Midwest
348 N.C. Central Southeast
349 100.0%
350 100.0%
351 100.0%
352 100.0%
353 100.0%
354 100.0%
355 100.0%
356 100.0%
357 100.0%
358 100.0%
359 100.0%
360 100.0%
361 100.0%
362 100.0%
363 100.0%
364 100.0%
365 100.0%
366 100.0%
367 100.0%
368 100.0%
369 100.0%
370 100.0%
371 100.0%
372 100.0%
373 100.0%
374 100.0%
375 100.0%
376 100.0%
377 100.0%
378 100.0%
379 100.0%
380 100.0%
381 100.0%
382 100.0%
383 100.0%
384 100.0%
385 100.0%
386 100.0%
387 100.0%
388 100.0%
389 100.0%
390 100.0%
391 100.0%
392 100.0%
393 100.0%
394 100.0%
395 100.0%
396 100.0%
397 100.0%
398 100.0%
399 100.0%
400 100.0%