Carmel
Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #5
Brownsburg Regional Rank #2
North Central (Indpls) Sectional Rank #1
Most Likely Finish 5th place at State Finals
State Champion 3.1%
Top 5 at State Finals 42.3%
Top 10 at State Finals 86.7%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Golden Bear Invitational Culver Invitational Nike Twilight Noblesville JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational
Date 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5 10/7 10/12
Team Rating 214 506 198 239 209 480 227 196 467 451
Team Adjusted Rating 214 198 239 209 214 227 196 214 214
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Hamilton County Brownsburg Invitational Brown County Eagle Classic Golden Bear Invitational Culver Invitational Nike Twilight Noblesville JV Invite Delta Eagle Invitational
36  Jack Capes 12 16:12 16:10 15:58 16:32 16:23 16:10 16:02
64  Carter Buhr 11 16:24 16:15 16:41 16:36 16:19 16:24 16:12
65  Kiefer Jay 12 16:25 16:21 16:21 16:16 16:19 16:27 16:54
69  Jonah Kaul 10 16:25 16:16 16:22 16:22 16:30 16:32 16:22
101  Deklin Bowser 11 16:36 16:43 16:25 16:45 16:27 16:40 16:34
176  Zach Flint 11 16:54 17:59 16:56 16:42 16:53 17:02 16:54 16:54 16:50 16:55 16:49
188  William Gilhooly 12 16:56 21:20 17:53 17:13 16:40 16:54 16:43 16:35
225  Cohen Levy 12 17:02 17:21 17:00 16:58 17:03 17:16 17:26 16:47 16:57 16:47
309  Ben Meisner 10 17:16 17:28 16:41 16:59 17:06 16:50 17:48 17:13 17:29 17:20 18:03
335  Isaac Perrin 11 17:19 17:41 16:59 17:22 17:07 17:05 17:26 17:28 17:38 17:15
366  Cooper Szotek 10 17:25 17:35 16:50 17:33 17:29 19:18
376  Lucas Mallon 12 17:27 17:45 17:44 17:42 17:39 17:12 17:22 17:08 17:18
433  Josh Cale 12 17:35 16:52 17:41 17:37 17:23 17:41 17:16 17:33 17:57
453  Eli Gomez 12 17:37 17:13 17:52 17:42 17:22 17:41 17:37 17:35 17:40 17:29
532  Zachary Judy 10 17:48 17:30 17:35 17:49 17:50 17:44 17:56 17:36 17:53 18:11
570  Trevor Walton 10 17:53 18:13 17:37 17:36 17:45 17:38 18:21 17:58 18:12 17:50
614  Dominic Riego 12 17:57 18:41 17:54 17:51 17:53 18:02 17:26 17:55 18:03 17:54 18:14
657  Grant Vannahmen 9 18:03 18:01 17:53 18:22 17:58 17:59 18:06 17:58 18:04 17:54
683  Max Bontrager 12 18:05 18:15 18:08 18:13 18:13 17:57 17:44 17:57 18:03 18:04 18:09
686  Amory Spence 12 18:06 18:14 18:22 18:25 17:51 18:31 17:50 17:52 18:01 17:56
688  Cameron Scher-Millan 9 18:06 18:19 18:39 18:10 17:25 18:22 17:54 17:45
692  Noah Yoon 12 18:06 18:17 17:55 18:08 18:16 18:02 17:48 17:56 18:02 18:20 18:08
751  Grant Parkevich 9 18:12 18:28 18:16 18:02 18:41 18:11 17:46 18:08 18:06 18:08
952  Luke Lory 10 18:29 19:22 18:49 18:21 18:17 18:16 18:28 18:20
963  Neil Adesara 10 18:30 18:07 18:37 18:24 18:25 18:24 18:48 18:39
1,043  Nick Diehl 10 18:37 18:21 18:29 18:50 19:19 18:18 18:38 18:34 18:29 18:38
1,100  Sebastian Balarezo 11 18:43 18:34 18:40 18:15 18:19 19:03 18:53 19:03 19:03 18:22
1,157  Kerolos Khalil 10 18:47 19:04 19:31 18:58 18:50 18:40 18:30 18:20 18:50 18:21
1,171  Ishan Choudhary 12 18:48 18:33 19:00 19:29 18:24 18:50 17:52 18:44 19:28
1,177  Nate Gaddy 10 18:48 18:36 19:14 19:08 19:19 19:27 18:18 18:21 18:39 18:24
1,208  Nathan Yang 10 18:52 18:11 18:27 19:28 19:36 18:23 18:52 19:03
1,209  Nixon Trisler 9 18:52 18:48 20:33 18:08 18:52 18:32 18:55 18:46 19:14 19:47
1,218  Jesus Mejia 11 18:53 18:41 19:10 18:45 18:49 18:52 18:31 19:45
1,226  Ryan Finkbeiner 12 18:53 19:08 18:50 19:11 18:46 18:43 18:53 19:08 18:44 18:40 18:57
1,254  Ben Snyder 10 18:55 18:24 20:28 18:57 19:07 19:26 18:30 18:51 19:01
1,262  Marcus Primason 10 18:56 19:15 18:45 18:51 18:59 20:08 18:55 18:54 18:53
1,278  Grant Lawson 12 18:58 18:39 18:54 18:49 18:43 19:12 19:23
John Norton 10 19:00 19:27 19:06 20:20 19:06 18:38 18:35 18:53 19:28 18:59
Jack Sims 10 19:04 18:55 19:32 19:05 19:06 19:02 18:42 19:04 19:06
Isaac Mehle 11 19:13 18:56 19:18 18:51 20:10 19:25 18:57 19:26 18:34 19:35
Hudson Barry 12 19:22 19:20 19:07 19:35 19:29 19:41 18:45




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100.0% 6.6 229 3.1 5.8 9.5 11.3 12.8 12.5 10.5 8.2 7.6 5.5 4.1 3.4 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.9 77 9.3 87.5 2.9 0.3 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 27 96.1 3.8 0.2



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jack Capes 100% 41.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.7 100.0% 100.0%
Carter Buhr 100.0% 70.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0% 99.1%
Kiefer Jay 100.0% 70.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0% 98.9%
Jonah Kaul 100.0% 71.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0% 98.7%
Deklin Bowser 100.0% 104.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0% 90.8%
Zach Flint 100.0% 163.2 0.0% 40.2%
William Gilhooly 100.0% 168.4 0.0% 32.2%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jack Capes 100% 10.9 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.4 3.9 5.5 6.8 8.9 9.9 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.1 6.3 5.6 3.3 2.0 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 100.0%
Carter Buhr 100% 16.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.2 4.0 4.2 5.1 7.5 9.0 8.5 9.7 9.0 7.7 6.5 5.7 4.6 2.9 2.3 1.9 100.0%
Kiefer Jay 100% 16.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.5 5.6 7.2 8.4 9.5 9.1 8.9 7.3 7.4 5.3 4.4 3.1 2.9 1.8 100.0%
Jonah Kaul 100% 16.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.0 3.2 4.4 5.0 6.9 7.6 9.0 9.3 9.6 8.7 7.3 5.6 4.8 3.0 2.8 1.9 100.0%
Deklin Bowser 100% 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.5 4.1 4.9 6.6 8.5 9.0 8.2 7.7 7.1 6.2 100.0%
Zach Flint 100% 34.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.3 3.2 100.0%
William Gilhooly 100% 36.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Jack Capes 1.8 12.9 43.8 25.8 9.3 4.7 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.2
Carter Buhr 4.6 0.6 4.9 13.3 20.0 19.6 16.0 11.0 6.9 3.8 2.3 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kiefer Jay 4.7 0.5 3.8 12.6 18.9 19.7 16.8 12.3 6.4 4.4 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jonah Kaul 4.8 0.5 3.5 12.5 18.2 18.5 18.7 11.2 7.4 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Deklin Bowser 7.6 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.2 6.0 11.3 19.0 16.8 13.5 12.3 9.6 6.1 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Zach Flint 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.6 6.0 9.0 11.0 15.8 20.8 15.7 7.4 4.3 2.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
William Gilhooly 12.7 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.2 6.1 9.2 14.5 18.9 19.5 10.6 5.6 3.5 2.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0