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Boys - Girls
2023 - 2024 - 2025
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State Rank #3
New Haven Regional Rank #2
Woodlan Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 2nd place at State Finals
State Champion 9.1%
Top 5 at State Finals 87.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 99.5%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%



All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.




Season RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Nike Twilight
Date 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/5
Team Rating 155 151 137 129 149 198 217 197
Team Adjusted Rating 143 137 129 149 155 160 157
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating John Cleland Invitational (4k) Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Classic Nike Twilight
14  Caterina Perego 11 18:34 19:14 18:33 18:24 18:34 18:53
28  Lucy Kramer 10 18:50 18:55 18:54 18:49 18:43 18:39 18:48 19:03 18:47
61  Avalyn Goldstone 9 19:26 19:25 19:26 19:20 19:26 22:36 19:22
77  Daisy Niezer 11 19:34 20:36 19:38 19:25 19:20 19:27 19:29 19:26 19:48
80  Lindsey Arnold 10 19:35 19:46 19:35 19:25 19:13 19:35 19:51 19:19 19:39
94  Kaitlynn Hansen 10 19:41 19:58 19:12 19:24 19:42 19:59 19:41 19:49 19:38
121  Ella Antibus 10 19:58 19:14 19:58 19:40 19:57 20:00 19:53 20:13 20:04
128  Brier Saddington 11 20:00 19:50 20:07 19:46 20:08 19:56 19:54 20:15 19:59
168  Alexis Goebel 12 20:19 20:22 20:26 20:11 19:54 20:12 20:24 20:29 20:14
170  Kylie Kottkamp 9 20:20 20:08 20:07 20:11 20:13 20:47 20:15 20:30
224  Harper Stiltner 9 20:35 20:30 20:19 20:14 20:26 20:53 20:47 20:47
229  Ember Gaff 9 20:36 20:35 21:19 20:43 20:15 20:32 20:18 20:29
321  Leah Smits 10 20:57 21:59 21:04 20:41 21:35 20:17 20:35 20:38 21:36
445  Lilia Chadwick 10 21:26 21:24 21:15 21:08 21:34 21:28 21:30 21:19 21:27
452  Kendall Burch 10 21:28 21:22 21:23 21:29 21:31 21:21
820  Alice Ford 9 22:25 22:01 22:48 22:39 22:02
1,004  Kaelyn Godfrey 10 22:51 22:26 22:46 22:26 23:11 22:48 23:38 22:43
1,152  Zuri Christensen 11 23:12 23:29 23:15 22:52 23:13 23:06 23:15 22:57 23:27
1,184  Yevva Ireland 11 23:16 23:09 22:59 23:28 22:56 23:37 23:17 23:09
1,186  Savannah Weaver 9 23:16 23:07 23:10 23:23 23:19
1,229  Elsie Loshe 10 23:23 22:59 23:32 23:33 23:40 22:44 23:03 23:54 23:15




IHSAA Tournament Simulation



Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.






Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
State Finals 100% 3.4 166 9.1 33.4 21.1 13.9 9.3 5.5 3.4 2.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
Regionals 100% 1.3 49 73.2 26.8
Sectionals 100% 1.3 30 74.8 25.2



Individual Results



Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.



State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Caterina Perego 100% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.6 5.1 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.2 4.8 5.5 4.5 4.5 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.1 100.0%
Lucy Kramer 100% 25.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.6 3.7 3.6 4.1 3.4 100.0%
Avalyn Goldstone 100% 64.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
Daisy Niezer 100% 77.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
Lindsey Arnold 100% 79.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
Kaitlynn Hansen 100% 90.1 98.6%
Ella Antibus 100% 121.1 88.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Caterina Perego 100% 3.4 1.9 14.6 23.6 24.4 18.4 11.1 4.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Lucy Kramer 100% 5.7 0.1 1.3 4.5 10.5 17.6 23.0 24.1 9.8 4.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Avalyn Goldstone 100% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 7.4 9.8 11.0 9.6 9.6 8.7 8.4 7.0 5.0 5.0 3.9 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 100.0%
Daisy Niezer 100% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.7 4.1 5.3 6.2 7.3 7.2 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.3 6.1 6.3 5.3 4.7 3.7 3.2 2.0 1.3 100.0%
Lindsey Arnold 100% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.9 3.5 4.9 6.5 6.8 7.3 7.9 7.3 7.3 6.6 7.8 6.0 5.7 4.6 3.5 3.4 2.8 1.8 100.0%
Kaitlynn Hansen 100% 18.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.3 2.7 4.4 4.3 6.1 6.2 7.1 7.5 7.2 7.7 7.7 6.5 6.3 4.7 4.7 3.2 100.0%
Ella Antibus 100% 24.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.4 3.1 3.4 4.6 5.3 7.3 7.8 7.5 7.8 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Caterina Perego 1.8 3.1 62.1 27.6 6.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Lucy Kramer 3.1 0.1 8.3 37.2 45.2 7.2 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1
Avalyn Goldstone 6.3 0.1 3.0 21.2 20.6 16.1 13.2 9.1 6.8 4.8 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.2
Daisy Niezer 8.3 0.0 0.7 6.2 11.2 13.8 14.1 14.3 12.2 10.8 7.9 5.1 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1
Lindsey Arnold 8.4 0.4 5.9 10.7 13.2 13.4 14.3 13.2 9.8 8.9 5.3 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Kaitlynn Hansen 10.0 0.1 2.0 4.5 6.6 10.5 12.0 13.9 13.6 13.5 11.1 6.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Ella Antibus 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.9 4.2 7.1 11.2 15.9 21.4 14.7 9.1 5.5 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0