American Athletic
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Memphis 31%   12   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +7.5 80 B +6 53 C+ +1 120 +26 2 0 1
Wichita St. 25%   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +7.1 85 B- +4 89 B- +3 86 +4 140 0 1
South Florida 19%   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +6.8 88 B +6 63 C+ +1 130 -1 211 0 1
Tulsa 15%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +5.1 103 B- +4 88 C+ +1 122 +6 106 0 1
North Texas 11%   Likely Out 1 - 0 0 - 0 +4.4 108 C +1 143 B +4 81 +16 20 0 1
Charlotte 6%   Negligible 2 - 0 0 - 0 +2.7 121 C+ +3 109 C +0 147 +10 41 0 1
Florida Atlantic 5%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 +1.0 138 C +1 147 C +0 141 0 208 0 1
UAB 3%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -0.1 150 C +1 150 C -1 177 -2 233 0 1
Temple 3%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -0.2 153 C -1 176 C +0 139 -4 257 0 1
East Carolina 2%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -1.5 175 C- -1 197 C +0 161 -7 285 0 1
Tulane 1%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -2.5 191 C+ +1 130 D -4 295 -10 304 0 1
Rice 1%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -5.4 257 C- -3 240 D+ -3 268 -23 362 0 1
Texas San Antonio 0%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -6.6 277 D+ -3 246 D -4 297 -5 271 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 5 75 DePaul 82 88 South Florida 80   
94 McNeese St. 67 108 North Texas 77   
230 Northern Illinois 75 103 Tulsa 94   
121 Charlotte 77 229 Georgia St. 67   
279 Jackson St. 87 191 Tulane 85   
257 Rice 71 278 East Texas A&M 72   
Fri, Nov 6 138 Florida Atlantic 71 114 Wright St. 97   
280 Nicholls St. 63 150 UAB 70   
Sat, Nov 7 80 Memphis 89 63 Virginia Commonwealth 88   
175 East Carolina 75 112 UNC Wilmington 78   
277 Texas San Antonio 70 324 VMI 68   
Sun, Nov 8 29 USC 93 85 Wichita St. 86   
102 Richmond 79 153 Temple 53   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 9 121 Charlotte 62 83 Seton Hall 66 67%   
257 Rice 61 74 Stanford 77 93%   
333 Florida A&M 67 150 UAB 81 89%   
Tue, Nov 10 80 Memphis 71 17 Vanderbilt 84 87%   
280 Nicholls St. 70 191 Tulane 78 76%   
Wed, Nov 11 108 North Texas 76 84 Santa Clara 75 51%   
134 Saint Joseph's 73 88 South Florida 79 70%   
133 College of Charleston 69 153 Temple 70 55%   
138 Florida Atlantic 84 177 William & Mary 78 71%   
291 Oral Roberts 66 103 Tulsa 82 92%   
119 Seattle 78 277 Texas San Antonio 65 88%   
175 East Carolina 79 292 N.C. A&T 70 80%   
Fri, Nov 13 211 Appalachian St. 58 121 Charlotte 68 81%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Memphis 3 31% 20% 8% 3% 31 19 14 10 8 6 4 3 2 1 1 0 0
Wichita St. 4 26% 17% 7% 3% 26 19 14 11 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0
South Florida 4 21% 13% 6% 2% 21 17 14 12 9 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 0
Tulsa 4 16% 9% 5% 2% 16 16 14 12 10 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 0
North Texas 5 13% 7% 4% 2% 13 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 1
Charlotte 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 3 2
Temple 7 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 8 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 7 5 3
Florida Atlantic 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 8 8 6 3
UAB 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 4
East Carolina 8 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 5 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 6
Tulane 9 1% 0% 1% 0% 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 12 12 13 12 9
Rice 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 12 15 18 21
Texas San Antonio 11 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 6 8 11 16 20 27

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Memphis 12 - 6 20 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 15 15 13 9 5 2 0
Wichita St. 12 - 6 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 14 16 15 12 8 4 1 0
South Florida 11 - 7 21 - 11 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 13 15 15 13 10 6 3 1 0
Tulsa 11 - 7 19 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 14 15 15 12 8 5 2 1 0
North Texas 10 - 8 19 - 11 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 15 15 13 10 7 4 1 0 0
Charlotte 9 - 9 18 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 4 8 11 14 15 14 12 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Temple 9 - 9 14 - 14 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 5 2 1 0 0 0
Florida Atlantic 9 - 9 14 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
UAB 8 - 10 15 - 16 0 0 1 2 5 8 12 13 15 14 11 9 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
East Carolina 8 - 10 14 - 14 0 0 1 3 6 10 12 14 14 13 11 8 4 2 1 0 0 0
Tulane 7 - 11 14 - 17 0 1 2 5 8 12 15 15 14 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0
Rice 6 - 12 10 - 20 0 2 6 10 13 16 16 13 10 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Texas San Antonio 5 - 13 10 - 20 1 3 7 12 16 17 15 12 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Memphis 31% 21% 13% 12 Likely Out 1 1 2 4 5 15 2 69
Wichita St. 25% 20% 7% Likely Out 1 1 2 2 14 4 75
South Florida 19% 16% 4% Likely Out 1 1 1 11 4 81
Tulsa 15% 13% 2% Likely Out 1 1 7 5 1 85
North Texas 11% 10% 2% Likely Out 1 5 4 1 89
Charlotte 6% 6% 0% Negligible 2 3 1 94
Florida Atlantic 5% 4% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 95
UAB 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 97
Temple 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 97
East Carolina 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 0 98
Tulane 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 0 99
Rice 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99
Texas San Antonio 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.2 78 21 1 0
1st Round 99% 1.1 1 85 14 0
2nd Round 27% 0.3 73 26 1 0
Sweet Sixteen 8% 0.1 92 8 0
Elite Eight 2% 0.0 98 2 0
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Memphis 31% 7% 27% 8% 3% 1%
Wichita St. 25% 4% 24% 7% 2% 1%
South Florida 19% 2% 18% 5% 1%
Tulsa 15% 1% 14% 4% 1%
North Texas 11% 1% 11% 2% 1%
Charlotte 6% 6% 1%
Florida Atlantic 5% 4% 1%
UAB 3% 3%
Temple 3% 3%
East Carolina 2% 1%
Tulane 1% 1%
Rice 1%
Texas San Antonio 0%