Atlantic Coast
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Duke 99%   2   Likely In 2 - 1 0 - 0 +23.5 1 A +12 3 A+ +11 1 +7 77 0 1
Virginia 99%   2   Likely In 4 - 0 0 - 0 +19.2 8 A +11 6 A +8 16 +20 10 0 1
Louisville 94%   4   Likely In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +17.8 14 A- +9 19 A +9 12 +3 151 0 1
Miami (FL) 75%   8   Bubble - In 2 - 1 0 - 0 +16.7 21 A- +9 30 A +8 19 +7 69 0 1
North Carolina 77%   8   Bubble - In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +13.0 41 B+ +7 48 B+ +6 35 +11 36 0 1
Virginia Tech 71%   10   Bubble - In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +12.9 43 A- +9 29 B +4 64 +19 13 0 1
North Carolina St. 50%   11   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +11.9 49 A- +8 31 B- +4 77 +7 66 0 1
Florida St. 37%   Bubble - Out 2 - 1 0 - 0 +10.9 56 B +6 61 B +5 46 +8 60 0 1
SMU 42%   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +10.3 60 B +6 65 B +5 54 +2 173 0 1
Syracuse 26%   Bubble - Out 2 - 1 0 - 0 +10.2 63 B +6 63 B +4 61 +2 168 0 1
Clemson 36%   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +9.9 65 B+ +7 47 B- +3 82 +5 103 0 1
Notre Dame 42%   Bubble - Out 4 - 0 0 - 0 +9.4 67 B +5 74 B +4 63 +19 17 0 1
Pittsburgh 32%   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +8.7 71 B- +4 85 B +5 53 +12 31 0 1
Stanford 27%   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +8.3 74 B- +4 90 B +4 60 +7 80 0 1
Wake Forest 8%   Likely Out 2 - 1 0 - 0 +5.8 94 C+ +2 120 B +4 71 +5 117 0 1
California 5%   Likely Out 1 - 2 0 - 0 +5.7 96 B- +3 102 B- +3 91 +1 184 0 1
Boston College 6%   Likely Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +5.7 97 B- +4 89 C+ +2 110 +7 68 0 1
Georgia Tech 3%   Likely Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +4.2 110 C+ +2 110 C+ +2 111 +4 126 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 30 Arkansas 72 8 Virginia 91   
96 California 68 5 Houston 86   
105 Penn St. 76 71 Pittsburgh 82   
Mon, Nov 9 34 Indiana 83 63 Syracuse 80   
21 Miami (FL) 89 311 North Florida 51   
65 Clemson 92 304 North Dakota 77   
262 Rice 73 74 Stanford 91   
355 Eastern Illinois 70 67 Notre Dame 94   
Tue, Nov 10 1 Duke 73 6 Michigan St. 79   
2 Florida 81 56 Florida St. 72   
46 Iowa 88 43 Virginia Tech 93   
41 North Carolina 76 114 Wyoming 63   
348 Bucknell 61 8 Virginia 95   
49 North Carolina St. 94 252 Presbyterian 60   
309 Prairie View 63 60 SMU 98   
284 Eastern Kentucky 71 110 Georgia Tech 85   
318 Charleston Southern 64 94 Wake Forest 82   
97 Boston College 82 364 Maryland Eastern Shore 54   
Wed, Nov 11 96 California 65 26 USC 77   
67 Notre Dame 99 323 South Carolina St. 59   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 13 54 Maryland 72 8 Virginia 77 69%   
59 Georgia 77 41 North Carolina 83 70%   
65 Clemson 72 75 Georgetown 68 68%   
1 Duke 87 274 SIU Edwardsville 54 99%   
91 Butler 80 71 Pittsburgh 79 53%   
74 Stanford 73 100 UNLV 74 51%   
21 Miami (FL) 84 259 North Alabama 59 98%   
49 North Carolina St. 81 195 Troy 64 94%   
196 TX A&M Corpus Christi 63 56 Florida St. 79 93%   
299 Mount St. Mary's 59 43 Virginia Tech 83 98%   
269 Ball St. 61 60 SMU 81 95%   
Sat, Nov 14 247 Southern Utah 68 94 Wake Forest 82 89%   
96 California 84 289 Utah Tech 68 92%   
110 Georgia Tech 85 292 UNC Asheville 70 91%   
Sun, Nov 15 15 St. John's 80 63 Syracuse 69 84%   
14 Louisville 85 87 Memphis 77 78%   
97 Boston College 73 307 New Hampshire 56 94%   
Mon, Nov 16 102 Richmond 70 43 Virginia Tech 81 85%   
65 Clemson 79 338 The Citadel 55 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Duke 3 42% 27% 10% 4% 42 22 13 9 6 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Virginia 3 30% 18% 8% 4% 30 20 13 11 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Louisville 4 22% 12% 7% 3% 22 18 14 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Miami (FL) 6 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 12 11 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 0 0
Virginia Tech 7 7% 3% 3% 2% 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0
North Carolina 7 7% 3% 2% 2% 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1
North Carolina St. 8 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1
Notre Dame 9 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2
SMU 9 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2
Clemson 9 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2
Florida St. 9 2% 1% 1% 1% 2 4 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2
Syracuse 10 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 2
Stanford 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 3
Pittsburgh 11 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3
Wake Forest 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 10 8
Boston College 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 11 12 12 14
California 14 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 7 8 9 12 13 14 12
Georgia Tech 15 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 11 13 17 21

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Duke 13 - 5 24 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 14 18 19 16 10 4 1
Virginia 13 - 5 24 - 7 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 17 17 17 12 7 2 1
Louisville 12 - 6 21 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 14 16 17 14 9 4 2 0
Miami (FL) 11 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 14 17 15 12 8 5 2 0 0
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 22 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 14 15 12 10 6 3 1 0 0
North Carolina 10 - 8 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 15 15 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
North Carolina St. 10 - 8 20 - 11 0 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 12 15 17 14 10 7 3 2 0 0
Notre Dame 9 - 9 18 - 12 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 15 14 12 8 5 2 1 0 0
SMU 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 0 1 1 3 6 9 11 14 15 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Clemson 9 - 9 17 - 13 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 15 15 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Florida St. 9 - 9 19 - 13 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 13 14 15 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Syracuse 8 - 10 19 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 15 15 13 9 6 4 1 1 0 0
Stanford 8 - 10 18 - 13 0 0 1 3 5 8 12 14 15 13 11 8 4 3 1 0 0 0
Pittsburgh 8 - 10 18 - 14 0 1 3 5 9 12 14 16 15 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Wake Forest 7 - 11 15 - 16 0 1 3 7 9 14 16 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Boston College 6 - 12 17 - 15 0 2 5 9 13 15 16 13 10 8 4 3 1 0 0 0
California 6 - 12 14 - 17 0 2 5 9 14 17 16 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Georgia Tech 5 - 13 15 - 17 1 4 8 12 16 17 14 11 8 5 2 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Duke 99% 26% 99% 2 Likely In 20 24 19 12 8 6 4 3 1 1 1 1
Virginia 99% 23% 98% 2 Likely In 25 20 15 11 8 6 4 3 2 2 2 1
Louisville 94% 15% 92% 4 Likely In 11 12 12 11 11 9 7 5 4 5 5 1 6
Miami (FL) 75% 8% 72% 8 Bubble - In 1 3 4 6 7 7 8 8 6 8 13 2 25
North Carolina 77% 6% 75% 8 Bubble - In 3 3 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 9 12 2 23
Virginia Tech 71% 6% 69% 10 Bubble - In 2 2 3 4 6 7 7 8 7 9 13 3 29
North Carolina St. 50% 3% 48% 11 Bubble - Out 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 13 4 50
Florida St. 37% 2% 35% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 4 6 11 4 63
SMU 42% 2% 40% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 13 3 58
Syracuse 26% 2% 25% Bubble - Out 1 2 2 2 3 5 9 2 74
Clemson 36% 2% 35% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 4 4 6 11 3 64
Notre Dame 42% 2% 41% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 13 5 58
Pittsburgh 32% 1% 31% Bubble - Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 11 3 68
Stanford 27% 1% 26% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 9 4 73
Wake Forest 8% 0% 8% Likely Out 1 1 1 3 1 92
California 5% 0% 5% Likely Out 0 1 1 2 1 95
Boston College 6% 0% 6% Likely Out 1 1 3 1 94
Georgia Tech 3% 0% 3% Likely Out 0 1 1 1 97

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 8.3 0 1 5 19 32 27 12 3 0 0 0
1st Round 100% 7.2 0 1 7 21 33 25 10 2 0 0
2nd Round 100% 4.7 0 3 13 28 31 18 6 1 0
Sweet Sixteen 97% 2.4 3 17 35 30 13 3 0 0
Elite Eight 80% 1.3 20 43 29 8 1 0
Final Four 53% 0.7 47 42 10 1
Final Game 31% 0.3 69 29 2
Champion 17% 0.2 83 17

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Duke 99% 2% 99% 87% 57% 34% 20% 11% 6%
Virginia 99% 3% 97% 84% 54% 32% 18% 10% 6%
Louisville 94% 9% 90% 70% 39% 21% 11% 6% 3%
Miami (FL) 75% 21% 65% 41% 20% 9% 4% 2% 1%
North Carolina 77% 18% 68% 41% 20% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Virginia Tech 71% 20% 61% 35% 15% 6% 3% 1% 1%
North Carolina St. 50% 21% 40% 20% 8% 3% 1% 1%
Florida St. 37% 18% 27% 13% 4% 2% 1%
SMU 42% 19% 32% 16% 6% 3% 1%
Syracuse 26% 13% 19% 9% 3% 2% 1%
Clemson 36% 16% 28% 13% 5% 2% 1%
Notre Dame 42% 20% 31% 15% 5% 2% 1%
Pittsburgh 32% 16% 23% 11% 4% 1%
Stanford 27% 14% 20% 9% 3% 1%
Wake Forest 8% 5% 6% 2% 1%
California 5% 3% 3% 1%
Boston College 6% 4% 4% 1%
Georgia Tech 3% 2% 2% 1%