Big 12
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Kansas 99%   1   Likely In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +21.6 4 A +10 9 A+ +11 3 +21 9 0 1
Houston 99%   2   Likely In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +21.0 5 A- +10 14 A+ +11 2 +14 26 0 1
Arizona 93%   4   Likely In 2 - 1 0 - 0 +18.3 11 A- +9 18 A +9 9 +7 67 0 1
Texas Tech 94%   4   Likely In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +18.3 12 A +10 10 A- +8 21 +26 3 0 1
Iowa St. 73%   8   Bubble - In 2 - 1 0 - 0 +16.5 22 B+ +7 43 A +10 7 +1 188 0 1
BYU 87%   6   Likely In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +15.9 23 A +12 4 B +4 68 +20 11 0 1
Baylor 77%   7   Bubble - In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +14.7 31 A- +9 26 B+ +6 39 +5 109 0 1
Oklahoma St. 71%   9   Bubble - In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +13.4 36 A- +8 33 B+ +5 44 +5 107 0 1
West Virginia 65%   10   Bubble - In 2 - 0 0 - 0 +13.2 39 B +6 59 A- +7 28 +1 187 0 1
Cincinnati 59%   11   Bubble - In 2 - 1 0 - 0 +13.1 40 B +5 68 A- +8 22 +4 130 0 1
TCU 53%   11   Bubble - In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +11.8 50 B +6 57 B+ +6 42 +1 181 0 1
Arizona St. 36%   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +10.3 61 B+ +7 46 B- +3 78 +9 45 0 1
Central Florida 19%   Likely Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +6.8 86 B+ +6 52 C +1 134 +8 62 0 1
Colorado 15%   Likely Out 2 - 1 0 - 0 +6.5 90 B- +3 99 B- +3 79 +4 127 0 1
Kansas St. 9%   Likely Out 2 - 1 0 - 0 +5.9 93 B- +4 95 B- +2 98 +4 138 0 1
Utah 10%   Likely Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +5.4 98 C+ +2 122 B +4 74 +6 82 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sun, Nov 8 96 California 68 5 Houston 86   
Mon, Nov 9 40 Cincinnati 61 51 Minnesota 63   
Tue, Nov 10 3 Illinois 78 12 Texas Tech 84   
4 Kansas 89 37 Kentucky 69   
55 Creighton 82 93 Kansas St. 89   
23 BYU 98 191 Queens 82   
50 TCU 100 322 Louisiana Monroe 92   
31 Baylor 90 159 Yale 61   
61 Arizona St. 85 153 Hofstra 63   
11 Arizona 90 303 Northern Arizona 59   
22 Iowa St. 84 305 Southern 47   
248 South Alabama 69 86 Central Florida 76   
90 Colorado 83 143 San Diego 75   
98 Utah 85 310 Weber St. 64   
Wed, Nov 11 5 Houston 92 216 Jacksonville St. 46   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Thu, Nov 12 36 Oklahoma St. 86 24 Texas A&M 91 70%   
23 BYU 85 127 Montana St. 68 94%   
224 Mercer 61 39 West Virginia 81 96%   
Fri, Nov 13 11 Arizona 77 25 Auburn 76 51%   
227 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 64 50 TCU 83 95%   
61 Arizona St. 90 322 Louisiana Monroe 67 97%   
296 Georgia Southern 70 86 Central Florida 88 94%   
Sat, Nov 14 90 Colorado 71 47 Providence 80 79%   
40 Cincinnati 74 113 Dayton 67 73%   
98 Utah 71 83 Washington 70 55%   
353 Stonehill 52 12 Texas Tech 86 100%   
Sun, Nov 15 31 Baylor 79 10 Texas 82 64%   
22 Iowa St. 87 345 Niagara 56 99%   
Mon, Nov 16 151 Central Arkansas 70 36 Oklahoma St. 87 93%   
93 Kansas St. 85 202 Montana 73 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Kansas 3 34% 21% 9% 3% 34 20 13 10 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Houston 3 30% 19% 8% 3% 30 19 13 10 8 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Texas Tech 5 19% 11% 5% 2% 19 15 13 12 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0
Arizona 5 13% 7% 4% 2% 13 14 12 12 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0
BYU 6 7% 4% 2% 2% 7 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 1
Baylor 7 7% 3% 2% 1% 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1
Iowa St. 7 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 0
Oklahoma St. 7 5% 2% 2% 1% 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
West Virginia 7 5% 2% 1% 1% 5 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 1
TCU 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 4 3 1
Cincinnati 8 3% 1% 1% 1% 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 3 2
Arizona St. 10 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 9 9 10 11 10 9 7 5
Central Florida 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 11 13 14 14 12
Colorado 12 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 7 9 10 12 14 15 14
Utah 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 5 6 7 10 12 15 17 18
Kansas St. 13 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 10 12 15 18 20

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Kansas 13 - 5 23 - 7 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 13 16 18 16 12 6 2 0
Houston 12 - 6 23 - 7 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 10 14 16 17 15 10 6 2 0
Texas Tech 11 - 7 21 - 8 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 15 16 14 10 6 3 1 0
Arizona 11 - 7 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 15 16 16 13 8 5 1 1 0
BYU 10 - 8 21 - 9 0 0 1 2 4 7 10 13 16 15 13 10 6 2 1 0 0
Baylor 10 - 8 19 - 10 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 14 16 15 12 8 5 2 1 0 0
Iowa St. 10 - 8 20 - 10 0 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 15 15 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Oklahoma St. 10 - 8 20 - 12 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 13 15 15 13 11 6 3 1 0 0
West Virginia 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 1 2 3 7 10 12 14 15 13 10 6 3 2 0 0 0
TCU 9 - 9 19 - 11 0 0 1 3 5 9 13 15 14 13 11 8 4 2 1 0 0
Cincinnati 9 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 13 15 15 13 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Arizona St. 7 - 11 20 - 13 0 0 1 4 6 11 14 15 15 13 9 6 3 2 1 0 0
Central Florida 6 - 12 16 - 16 0 2 4 9 12 16 17 15 11 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Colorado 6 - 12 15 - 16 0 2 5 9 13 15 16 13 11 7 5 2 1 0 0 0
Utah 6 - 12 17 - 15 1 3 6 11 15 16 16 12 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0
Kansas St. 5 - 13 14 - 16 1 3 7 12 16 16 15 12 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Kansas 99% 21% 99% 1 Likely In 31 21 16 10 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 1
Houston 99% 19% 99% 2 Likely In 26 20 15 12 8 6 5 3 2 2 2 1
Arizona 93% 11% 92% 4 Likely In 8 10 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 4 6 1 7
Texas Tech 94% 13% 93% 4 Likely In 13 13 12 12 10 8 7 6 3 4 5 1 6
Iowa St. 73% 5% 71% 8 Bubble - In 2 3 4 6 7 8 8 7 5 8 13 2 27
BYU 87% 7% 86% 6 Likely In 5 4 7 9 9 10 9 8 7 7 10 2 13
Baylor 77% 6% 76% 7 Bubble - In 3 4 5 7 7 8 7 7 7 9 12 2 23
Oklahoma St. 71% 5% 69% 9 Bubble - In 1 2 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 8 13 2 29
West Virginia 65% 5% 63% 10 Bubble - In 1 3 3 5 5 6 7 6 6 8 12 2 35
Cincinnati 59% 3% 58% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 9 14 3 41
TCU 53% 3% 52% 11 Bubble - In 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 5 7 14 2 47
Arizona St. 36% 1% 35% Bubble - Out 1 1 2 2 3 4 6 12 3 64
Central Florida 19% 0% 19% Likely Out 1 1 1 2 2 3 7 2 81
Colorado 15% 0% 14% Likely Out 1 1 2 3 6 2 85
Kansas St. 9% 0% 9% Likely Out 1 2 4 1 91
Utah 10% 0% 10% Likely Out 1 1 1 4 2 90

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 9.6 0 3 14 30 32 17 4 0 0
1st Round 100% 8.6 0 0 3 15 30 31 16 5 0 0
2nd Round 100% 5.9 0 0 2 10 24 31 21 9 2 0 0
Sweet Sixteen 99% 3.2 1 7 22 32 25 11 3 0 0
Elite Eight 88% 1.6 12 34 34 15 3 0
Final Four 63% 0.8 37 44 17 2 0
Final Game 38% 0.4 62 34 4
Champion 21% 0.2 79 21

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Kansas 99% 1% 99% 88% 57% 34% 20% 11% 6%
Houston 99% 3% 98% 84% 53% 31% 18% 10% 5%
Arizona 93% 9% 89% 68% 37% 19% 10% 5% 2%
Texas Tech 94% 9% 90% 70% 41% 22% 12% 6% 3%
Iowa St. 73% 21% 63% 40% 19% 9% 4% 2% 1%
BYU 87% 15% 80% 53% 26% 12% 6% 3% 1%
Baylor 77% 19% 68% 44% 21% 9% 4% 2% 1%
Oklahoma St. 71% 20% 61% 37% 17% 7% 3% 1% 1%
West Virginia 65% 20% 56% 34% 16% 7% 3% 2% 1%
Cincinnati 59% 21% 49% 27% 11% 5% 2% 1%
TCU 53% 20% 43% 24% 10% 4% 2% 1%
Arizona St. 36% 17% 26% 12% 4% 1% 1%
Central Florida 19% 10% 13% 5% 2% 1%
Colorado 15% 9% 10% 4% 1%
Kansas St. 9% 6% 6% 2% 1%
Utah 10% 6% 6% 2% 1%