Big East
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Connecticut 99%   1   Likely In 4 - 0 0 - 0 +21.2 6 A +10 8 A+ +11 5 +24 5 0 1
St. John's 96%   3   Likely In 3 - 0 0 - 0 +17.8 14 A- +9 23 A +9 10 +7 72 0 1
Marquette 78%   7   Bubble + 2 - 1 0 - 0 +14.8 26 B +6 50 A +9 13 +6 96 0 1
Xavier 86%   6   Likely In 4 - 0 0 - 0 +14.7 29 B +6 53 A +9 14 +15 25 0 1
Villanova 68%   9   Bubble + 2 - 1 0 - 0 +13.5 37 B+ +8 36 B+ +6 42 +3 154 0 1
Providence 57%   11   Bubble + 2 - 1 0 - 0 +12.1 46 B +5 82 A- +8 25 +4 128 0 1
Creighton 49%   Bubble - 2 - 1 0 - 0 +11.0 56 B+ +6 49 B +5 56 +1 169 0 1
DePaul 47%   Bubble - 4 - 0 0 - 0 +10.7 59 B- +3 95 A- +7 29 +16 24 0 1
Georgetown 33%   Bubble - 4 - 0 0 - 0 +9.0 72 B+ +7 41 C+ +2 113 +20 11 0 1
Seton Hall 22%   Bubble - 3 - 1 0 - 0 +7.7 79 C+ +1 142 A- +7 34 +11 44 0 1
Butler 5%   Likely Out 2 - 2 0 - 0 +5.4 99 B- +3 96 C+ +2 102 -2 222 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Tue, Nov 10 56 Creighton 82 93 Kansas St. 89   
344 Delaware St. 78 72 Georgetown 83   
178 La Salle 59 37 Villanova 80   
313 Detroit Mercy 55 29 Xavier 100   
315 Bryant 55 46 Providence 78   
Wed, Nov 11 26 Marquette 70 17 Michigan 84   
215 Colgate 59 14 St. John's 90   
Fri, Nov 13 44 Ohio St. 68 6 Connecticut 84   
22 Alabama 82 79 Seton Hall 76   
71 Mississippi St. 63 29 Xavier 81   
74 Clemson 78 72 Georgetown 85   
59 DePaul 67 103 Northwestern 47   
99 Butler 64 64 Pittsburgh 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Sat, Nov 14 88 Colorado 71 46 Providence 80 79%   
361 Rider 52 37 Villanova 84 99%   
Sun, Nov 15 26 Marquette 75 28 Missouri 74 50%   
14 St. John's 80 62 Syracuse 69 84%   
56 Creighton 68 45 Iowa 69 54%   
Tue, Nov 17 64 Pittsburgh 70 37 Villanova 71 52%   
320 Cleveland St. 67 29 Xavier 94 99%   
99 Butler 83 154 Western Carolina 74 80%   
46 Providence 89 308 Sacred Heart 65 98%   
59 DePaul 77 364 Maryland Eastern Shore 46 99%   
Wed, Nov 18 8 Arizona 74 6 Connecticut 72 55%   
188 Siena 73 14 St. John's 96 97%   
26 Marquette 87 235 Northern Illinois 65 97%   
195 Bethune-Cookman 66 56 Creighton 83 93%   
72 Georgetown 80 295 Navy 60 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 2 53% 40% 11% 3% 53 22 12 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
St. John's 3 29% 19% 8% 2% 29 25 17 11 7 5 3 2 1 0 0
Xavier 4 12% 7% 4% 1% 12 16 17 15 12 10 7 5 3 2 1
Marquette 5 10% 5% 3% 1% 10 14 15 15 13 11 9 6 4 2 1
Villanova 5 8% 4% 3% 1% 8 12 14 13 13 11 9 8 6 4 2
Providence 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 8 10 12 13 13 12 11 8 6 3
Creighton 6 3% 2% 1% 1% 3 6 8 11 12 13 12 12 10 8 5
DePaul 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 6 9 11 12 13 13 12 10 6
Georgetown 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 15 16 12
Seton Hall 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 14 16 19 16
Butler 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 2 3 5 7 11 14 22 34

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 15 - 5 24 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 12 15 17 16 13 7 3 1
St. John's 13 - 7 22 - 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 10 12 15 15 13 10 6 3 1 0
Xavier 12 - 8 21 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 14 13 11 7 4 2 1 0 0
Marquette 11 - 9 20 - 12 0 0 0 1 1 2 5 7 10 13 14 14 12 9 6 3 1 1 0
Villanova 11 - 9 18 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 13 11 8 5 2 1 0 0 0
Providence 10 - 10 17 - 13 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 14 12 10 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Creighton 9 - 11 16 - 14 0 0 0 1 3 4 7 10 12 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
DePaul 9 - 11 18 - 14 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 12 14 14 13 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 0
Georgetown 8 - 12 17 - 14 0 0 2 4 7 10 13 14 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Seton Hall 7 - 13 15 - 16 0 1 2 5 9 11 14 15 13 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Butler 6 - 14 13 - 19 1 2 6 11 14 15 15 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Connecticut 99% 32% 99% 1 Likely In 34 26 15 10 6 4 2 1 1 1 1
St. John's 96% 21% 95% 3 Likely In 14 15 14 12 10 8 6 5 3 3 4 1 4
Marquette 78% 10% 75% 7 Bubble + 2 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 6 9 11 1 22
Xavier 86% 12% 85% 6 Likely In 4 6 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 7 9 1 14
Villanova 68% 8% 65% 9 Bubble + 1 3 4 5 7 7 7 7 6 8 12 1 32
Providence 57% 6% 55% 11 Bubble + 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 13 3 43
Creighton 49% 4% 46% Bubble - 1 2 2 4 4 5 5 6 8 11 2 51
DePaul 47% 3% 45% Bubble - 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 14 3 53
Georgetown 33% 2% 31% Bubble - 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 11 3 67
Seton Hall 22% 1% 21% Bubble - 1 1 1 2 2 4 8 2 78
Butler 5% 0% 5% Likely Out 0 0 1 3 1 95

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 6.4 0 3 15 36 33 12 1 0
1st Round 100% 5.7 0 1 11 31 36 17 3 0
2nd Round 100% 3.9 0 1 9 27 36 21 6 1 0
Sweet Sixteen 95% 2.1 5 25 38 25 7 1 0
Elite Eight 74% 1.1 26 47 23 4 0 0
Final Four 47% 0.6 53 40 7 0 0
Final Game 27% 0.3 73 25 2
Champion 15% 0.1 85 15

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 99% 1% 99% 90% 62% 39% 23% 13% 8%
St. John's 96% 6% 93% 75% 45% 25% 13% 7% 3%
Marquette 78% 18% 69% 45% 22% 10% 4% 2% 1%
Xavier 86% 14% 80% 54% 28% 13% 6% 3% 1%
Villanova 68% 18% 59% 37% 17% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Providence 57% 19% 48% 27% 11% 5% 2% 1%
Creighton 49% 16% 40% 22% 9% 4% 2% 1%
DePaul 47% 20% 37% 18% 7% 3% 1%
Georgetown 33% 16% 24% 10% 3% 1%
Seton Hall 22% 11% 15% 7% 2% 1%
Butler 5% 3% 3% 1%