Missouri Valley
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Murray St. 33%   13   Likely Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +7.9 78 B +5 75 B- +3 84 +5 109 0 1
Illinois-Chicago 20%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +4.9 104 B- +3 99 C+ +2 110 +5 115 0 1
Illinois St. 12%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 +3.1 118 B- +3 104 C +0 143 0 198 0 1
Valparaiso 14%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +2.9 120 C +1 147 B- +2 102 +25 5 0 1
Drake 6%   Negligible 1 - 0 0 - 0 +0.7 139 C +1 150 C +0 146 +1 168 0 1
Northern Iowa 7%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 +0.6 140 C+ +2 118 C- -1 207 0 193 0 1
Belmont 7%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 +0.6 141 C +1 146 C +0 157 -6 276 0 1
Indiana St. 2%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -3.3 211 C- -2 210 C- -2 223 -2 224 0 1
Southern Illinois 2%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -3.5 215 C- -2 233 C- -1 206 -17 353 0 1
Bradley 2%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -3.6 217 D -5 305 C+ +1 120 -11 323 0 1
Evansville 1%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -6.8 280 D -5 297 C- -2 242 -6 275 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Sat, Nov 7 123 Furman 98 140 Northern Iowa 83   
78 Murray St. 93 301 Northwestern St. 71   
217 Bradley 52 126 Pacific 63   
280 Evansville 78 327 Southern Indiana 76   
Sun, Nov 8 139 Drake 75 305 Southern 68   
Mon, Nov 9 118 Illinois St. 59 41 Purdue 76   
104 Illinois-Chicago 82 278 UNC Greensboro 72   
Tue, Nov 10 217 Bradley 45 108 Davidson 62   
141 Belmont 75 193 Lipscomb 88   
179 Green Bay 76 140 Northern Iowa 89   
354 Alcorn St. 57 78 Murray St. 94   
280 Evansville 68 180 Middle Tennessee 73   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 11 191 South Dakota St. 67 120 Valparaiso 69 58%   
211 Indiana St. 75 259 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 70 70%   
Thu, Nov 12 102 Richmond 77 215 Southern Illinois 72 71%   
217 Bradley 72 359 Coppin St. 62 83%   
Fri, Nov 13 5 Michigan St. 86 140 Northern Iowa 63 97%   
73 St. Mary's 75 104 Illinois-Chicago 69 74%   
118 Illinois St. 75 233 North Dakota St. 71 66%   
78 Murray St. 88 333 Texas Southern 67 97%   
139 Drake 84 315 South Dakota 72 88%   
Sat, Nov 14 141 Belmont 74 123 Furman 73 54%   
217 Bradley 59 97 George Mason 68 80%   
280 Evansville 69 112 Miami (OH) 77 77%   
245 Oakland 76 140 Northern Iowa 78 59%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Murray St. 2 48% 36% 10% 2% 48 22 12 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
Illinois-Chicago 3 25% 16% 7% 2% 25 22 16 12 9 6 4 3 2 1 0
Valparaiso 4 15% 9% 4% 1% 15 16 16 14 12 10 7 5 3 2 1
Illinois St. 4 13% 8% 4% 1% 13 15 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 1
Northern Iowa 5 7% 4% 2% 1% 7 10 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 4 2
Drake 5 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 12 13 13 13 11 9 7 5 2
Belmont 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 9 11 13 12 13 12 9 8 5 3
Southern Illinois 8 1% 1% 1% 0% 1 3 4 6 8 10 12 15 15 15 12
Indiana St. 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 6 8 10 13 14 15 15 12
Bradley 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 3 5 7 9 11 14 16 17 14
Evansville 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 15 22 34

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Murray St. 14 - 6 23 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 12 15 16 15 11 6 3 1
Illinois-Chicago 13 - 7 21 - 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 11 12 15 14 12 9 5 2 1 0
Valparaiso 12 - 8 19 - 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 9 11 13 13 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0
Illinois St. 12 - 8 17 - 13 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 9 12 13 14 12 10 7 4 2 1 0 0
Northern Iowa 10 - 10 15 - 15 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 10 12 13 13 12 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Drake 10 - 10 17 - 14 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 10 13 13 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Belmont 10 - 10 15 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 13 14 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
Southern Illinois 8 - 12 11 - 18 0 0 2 4 6 10 12 14 14 12 10 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
Indiana St. 8 - 12 11 - 17 0 1 1 4 7 10 13 14 13 12 10 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
Bradley 7 - 13 11 - 18 0 1 2 5 7 11 14 14 13 11 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
Evansville 6 - 14 9 - 20 1 3 6 11 14 15 15 12 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Murray St. 33% 30% 5% 13 Likely Out 1 2 1 14 12 1 67
Illinois-Chicago 20% 19% 1% Likely Out 1 6 9 3 80
Illinois St. 12% 12% 0% Negligible 2 6 3 1 88
Valparaiso 14% 13% 1% Likely Out 5 6 1 86
Drake 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 1 94
Northern Iowa 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 1 93
Belmont 7% 7% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 1 93
Indiana St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 1 0 98
Southern Illinois 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 1 0 98
Bradley 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 0 1 0 98
Evansville 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.1 94 6 0
1st Round 98% 1.0 2 95 4 0
2nd Round 19% 0.2 81 19 0
Sweet Sixteen 5% 0.1 95 5 0
Elite Eight 1% 0.0 99 1 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 33% 2% 32% 8% 2% 1%
Illinois-Chicago 20% 1% 19% 4% 1%
Illinois St. 12% 1% 12% 2%
Valparaiso 14% 1% 14% 3% 1%
Drake 6% 6% 1%
Northern Iowa 7% 1% 7% 1%
Belmont 7% 1% 6% 1%
Indiana St. 2% 1% 2%
Southern Illinois 2% 1% 2%
Bradley 2% 1% 1%
Evansville 1%