Mountain West
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
Grand Canyon 47%   12   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +12.8 42 B +6 55 B+ +7 34 +6 83 0 1
New Mexico 44%   Bubble - Out 3 - 0 0 - 0 +10.9 57 B +6 56 B +5 54 +4 136 0 1
Nevada 24%   Likely Out 2 - 1 0 - 0 +7.8 79 B- +4 93 B +4 68 +9 46 0 1
UNLV 12%   Likely Out 2 - 0 0 - 0 +5.4 99 B- +3 101 B- +2 99 +5 97 0 1
Wyoming 9%   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +3.7 113 C+ +2 108 C+ +1 122 +1 182 0 1
Hawaii 2%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -0.1 148 C- -2 208 C+ +1 119 -1 216 0 1
San Jose St. 2%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -1.6 175 C+ +2 128 D+ -3 282 -7 280 0 1
UTEP 2%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -2.0 188 C- -2 218 C +0 154 -3 235 0 1
UC Davis 1%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -3.1 206 C- -3 244 C +0 170 -11 324 0 1
Air Force 0%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -6.2 272 C- -2 228 D -4 303 +3 157 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 9 148 Hawaii 66 170 Portland 73   
Tue, Nov 10 39 North Carolina 76 113 Wyoming 63   
240 Arkansas Little Rock 69 57 New Mexico 94   
Wed, Nov 11 79 Nevada 63 89 UC Santa Barbara 76   
187 Cal Poly 71 42 Grand Canyon 99   
272 Air Force 107 149 Loyola Chicago 93   
206 UC Davis 81 341 Incarnate Word 69   
Thu, Nov 12 157 New Mexico St. 58 188 UTEP 60   
175 San Jose St. 75 201 UC Riverside 80   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 13 74 Stanford 73 99 UNLV 74 51%   
Sat, Nov 14 57 New Mexico 82 78 Santa Clara 83 50%   
79 Nevada 78 124 Utah Valley 69 79%   
42 Grand Canyon 94 322 Louisiana Monroe 69 98%   
216 Denver 70 113 Wyoming 74 66%   
165 Sacramento St. 80 206 UC Davis 74 69%   
272 Air Force 70 130 Pacific 80 84%   
Sun, Nov 15 294 Alabama St. 73 175 San Jose St. 82 81%   
357 Florida A&M 62 188 UTEP 76 90%   
Tue, Nov 17 4 Kansas 86 99 UNLV 70 93%   
163 Sam Houston St. 70 113 Wyoming 78 77%   
294 Alabama St. 71 206 UC Davis 78 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Grand Canyon 2 46% 33% 11% 2% 46 27 14 8 4 1 0 0
New Mexico 2 38% 26% 10% 2% 38 27 17 10 4 2 1 0 0
Nevada 3 19% 12% 6% 2% 19 22 21 17 11 6 3 1 0 0
UNLV 4 10% 5% 3% 1% 10 15 19 20 16 10 5 3 1 0
Wyoming 5 6% 4% 2% 1% 6 11 15 19 19 13 9 5 2 1
Hawaii 6 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 3 5 9 14 19 16 16 10 7
UTEP 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 2 3 7 11 18 18 17 15 9
San Jose St. 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 1 4 6 10 16 18 18 15 9
UC Davis 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 5 8 13 17 20 19 14
Air Force 9 0 0 1 3 5 10 16 24 40

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Grand Canyon 14 - 4 23 - 7 0 0 0 1 2 4 9 13 17 19 17 12 5 2
New Mexico 13 - 5 23 - 8 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 11 15 17 17 15 9 3 1
Nevada 12 - 6 21 - 10 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 12 15 17 14 12 8 4 1 0
UNLV 11 - 7 19 - 11 0 0 1 2 3 5 10 13 14 16 14 11 7 4 1 0 0
Wyoming 10 - 8 18 - 13 0 0 1 3 6 9 12 14 15 14 11 8 5 2 1 0 0
Hawaii 7 - 11 14 - 14 0 1 1 4 7 12 14 15 15 12 9 6 3 1 1 0 0
UTEP 7 - 11 12 - 15 0 1 2 6 10 13 16 15 13 10 7 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
San Jose St. 7 - 11 12 - 18 0 1 3 6 10 14 16 15 14 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
UC Davis 6 - 12 13 - 17 0 1 4 10 13 15 16 14 11 7 4 2 1 0 0 0
Air Force 4 - 14 11 - 20 2 7 13 16 20 16 12 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
Grand Canyon 47% 30% 25% 12 Bubble - Out 1 1 2 3 5 8 6 19 1 53
New Mexico 44% 30% 21% Bubble - Out 1 2 2 4 6 5 20 2 56
Nevada 24% 16% 9% Likely Out 1 1 3 2 14 2 76
UNLV 12% 10% 2% Likely Out 1 1 7 3 88
Wyoming 9% 8% 1% Likely Out 0 4 3 1 91
Hawaii 2% 2% 0% Negligible 1 1 0 0 98
San Jose St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 0 98
UTEP 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 0 0 98
UC Davis 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 0 0 0 99
Air Force 0% 0% 0% Negligible 100

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.4 61 35 4 0
1st Round 100% 1.3 0 72 26 1 0
2nd Round 37% 0.4 63 34 3 0
Sweet Sixteen 12% 0.1 88 12 0
Elite Eight 4% 0.0 96 4 0
Final Four 1% 0.0 99 1
Final Game 0% 0.0 100 0
Champion 0% 0.0 100 0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 47% 11% 42% 16% 5% 2%
New Mexico 44% 10% 40% 14% 5% 1%
Nevada 24% 6% 21% 6% 2%
UNLV 12% 1% 11% 3% 1%
Wyoming 9% 1% 9% 2%
Hawaii 2% 2%
San Jose St. 2% 1%
UTEP 2% 2%
UC Davis 1% 1%
Air Force 0%