Patriot League
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
American 31%   16   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -1.7 176 C +0 171 C- -1 199 +4 131 0 1
Colgate 22%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -3.6 214 C- -1 197 D+ -2 248 -10 307 0 1
Boston University 12%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -6.2 270 C- -2 217 D -4 311 +4 125 0 1
Lehigh 13%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -6.5 276 D -6 323 C -1 176 -9 297 0 1
Navy 8%   Negligible 2 - 1 0 - 0 -7.8 296 D -6 327 C- -2 226 +5 110 0 1
Lafayette 5%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -10.6 332 F+ -9 361 C- -2 220 -6 278 0 1
Army 3%   Negligible 0 - 2 0 - 0 -11.3 343 D- -7 336 D -5 322 -17 352 0 1
Bucknell 2%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -12.1 346 D- -7 335 D- -5 342 -10 317 0 1
Loyola Maryland 3%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -12.7 350 D- -7 342 D- -6 347 -14 338 0 1
Holy Cross 2%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -13.4 359 D- -7 337 F+ -7 358 -9 303 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 9 270 Boston University 55 88 Northwestern 72   
Tue, Nov 10 346 Bucknell 61 8 Virginia 95   
343 Army 55 342 New Haven 63   
Wed, Nov 11 214 Colgate 59 14 St. John's 90   
296 Navy 81 141 Penn 76   
176 American 66 249 Drexel 64   
121 Furman 80 359 Holy Cross 67   
Thu, Nov 12 350 Loyola Maryland 60 147 Towson 90   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Fri, Nov 13 276 Lehigh 65 267 Marist 63 60%   
346 Bucknell 68 223 Columbia 73 69%   
Sat, Nov 14 332 Lafayette 59 122 St. Bonaventure 75 92%   
220 Hampton 65 296 Navy 64 53%   
343 Army 69 160 St. Thomas 76 77%   
350 Loyola Maryland 73 347 Morgan St. 74 52%   
Sun, Nov 15 176 American 66 131 Harvard 65 51%   
214 Colgate 68 252 Delaware 69 56%   
270 Boston University 74 290 Dartmouth 69 66%   
359 Holy Cross 73 336 Albany 72 52%   
Tue, Nov 17 100 Akron 80 346 Bucknell 66 91%   
276 Lehigh 65 301 Mount St. Mary's 66 54%   
343 Army 65 267 Marist 67 59%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
American 2 47% 35% 10% 2% 47 22 13 8 4 3 2 1 0 0
Colgate 3 29% 20% 7% 2% 29 25 17 11 8 5 3 2 1 0
Lehigh 4 15% 9% 5% 2% 15 17 17 14 11 9 7 5 3 2
Boston University 4 13% 8% 4% 1% 13 15 17 17 12 9 7 6 3 2
Navy 5 8% 5% 2% 1% 8 13 15 15 13 11 9 8 5 3
Lafayette 6 4% 2% 1% 1% 4 6 9 11 12 14 13 12 11 10
Army 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 6 8 11 13 13 14 14 14
Bucknell 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 3 6 8 11 13 13 16 14 15
Loyola Maryland 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 4 5 8 9 12 14 15 15 15
Holy Cross 7 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 7 10 12 12 15 18 18

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
American 13 - 5 18 - 13 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 12 15 16 15 12 8 4 1
Colgate 12 - 6 15 - 15 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 12 14 16 15 12 7 4 1 0
Lehigh 10 - 8 14 - 15 0 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 12 13 15 12 10 6 4 1 0 0
Boston University 10 - 8 16 - 14 0 0 1 1 2 5 8 11 12 17 14 12 8 6 3 1 0 0
Navy 9 - 9 15 - 15 0 0 1 2 4 7 11 13 14 14 13 10 6 4 1 1 0 0
Lafayette 8 - 10 11 - 19 0 0 1 3 5 9 12 13 15 13 11 8 5 3 1 0 0 0
Army 7 - 11 10 - 20 0 1 2 5 9 10 14 15 14 11 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 0
Bucknell 7 - 11 9 - 22 0 1 2 5 8 12 14 15 14 11 8 4 2 1 1 0 0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 10 - 19 0 1 2 5 9 12 16 15 13 11 7 5 3 1 1 0 0
Holy Cross 7 - 11 9 - 21 0 1 3 6 9 14 15 14 14 10 6 3 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
American 31% 31% 0% 16 Negligible 1 2 13 16 69
Colgate 22% 22% 0% Negligible 1 5 16 78
Boston University 12% 12% 0% Negligible 1 10 88
Lehigh 13% 13% 0% Negligible 1 12 87
Navy 8% 8% 0% Negligible 1 7 92
Lafayette 5% 5% 0% Negligible 4 95
Army 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Bucknell 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 98
Loyola Maryland 3% 3% 0% Negligible 3 97
Holy Cross 2% 2% 0% Negligible 2 98

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100
1st Round 54% 0.5 46 54
2nd Round 2% 0.0 98 2
Sweet Sixteen 0% 0.0 100 0
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100
Final Four 0% 0.0 100
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
American 31% 25% 19% 1%
Colgate 22% 21% 13%
Boston University 12% 11% 6%
Lehigh 13% 13% 7%
Navy 8% 8% 3%
Lafayette 5% 5% 2%
Army 3% 3% 1%
Bucknell 2% 2% 1%
Loyola Maryland 3% 3% 1%
Holy Cross 2% 2% 1%