Southland
2025-26 - 2026-27 - 2027-28
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Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed At-Large
Selection		 Record Predictive
Rating		 Offense Defense Results
Rating		 Conf Results Rating
Overall Conf
McNeese St. 46%   14   Likely Out 1 - 1 0 - 0 +5.6 95 B- +3 93 C+ +2 96 +3 136 0 1
Stephen F. Austin 19%   Negligible 1 - 1 0 - 0 -0.1 147 C +0 168 C +0 163 -5 261 0 1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -3.0 206 D -5 295 C+ +2 112 +1 163 0 1
Lamar 6%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -4.3 232 D+ -3 248 C- -2 213 -16 349 0 1
Houston Christian 5%   Negligible 2 - 0 0 - 0 -4.5 239 D+ -4 268 C- -1 186 +5 105 0 1
UT Rio Grande Valley 4%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -5.9 262 D+ -3 249 D+ -3 278 -8 291 0 1
SE Louisiana 3%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -6.2 270 D+ -3 260 D+ -3 273 +6 101 0 1
New Orleans 3%   Negligible 0 - 1 0 - 0 -6.3 271 D+ -3 256 D+ -3 286 +6 99 0 1
East Texas A&M 3%   Negligible 3 - 1 0 - 0 -6.5 278 D -5 297 C- -2 224 +8 62 0 1
Nicholls St. 2%   Negligible 1 - 2 0 - 0 -7.0 287 D -6 322 C- -1 210 -5 262 0 1
Northwestern St. 1%   Negligible 0 - 3 0 - 0 -8.4 302 D -5 312 D+ -3 274 0 188 0 1
Incarnate Word 1%   Negligible 0 - 4 0 - 0 -11.0 338 D- -7 337 D -4 313 -19 356 0 1


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Competitiveness
Wed, Nov 11 279 Abilene Christian 71 147 Stephen F. Austin 76   
165 UC Davis 81 338 Incarnate Word 69   
331 Fairleigh Dickinson 80 278 East Texas A&M 76   
Fri, Nov 13 206 TX A&M Corpus Christi 60 52 Florida St. 84   
200 Portland 88 278 East Texas A&M 94   
Sat, Nov 14 235 Rice 81 147 Stephen F. Austin 78   
210 Texas Arlington 85 262 UT Rio Grande Valley 77   
240 Arkansas Little Rock 70 302 Northwestern St. 70   
258 Louisiana Tech 68 287 Nicholls St. 71   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Competitiveness
Mon, Nov 16 270 SE Louisiana 65 20 Texas A&M 91 98%   
84 Oregon St. 86 278 East Texas A&M 70 93%   
Tue, Nov 17 287 Nicholls St. 60 37 Mississippi 83 98%   
206 TX A&M Corpus Christi 66 235 Rice 68 56%   
232 Lamar 70 294 Nebraska Omaha 69 51%   
Wed, Nov 18 271 New Orleans 61 10 Texas Tech 89 99%   
107 Texas St. 79 338 Incarnate Word 61 94%   
Thu, Nov 19 103 California 80 278 East Texas A&M 66 90%   
296 Georgia Southern 69 239 Houston Christian 75 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Team Avg
Finish		 Champ Co-Champions Finishing Place
0 1 2+ 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 2 64% 51% 11% 2% 64 21 8 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Stephen F. Austin 3 24% 16% 7% 1% 24 26 17 10 8 5 4 2 2 1 1 1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5 9% 5% 3% 1% 9 14 16 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 2
Lamar 6 6% 3% 2% 1% 6 10 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 3
Houston Christian 6 4% 2% 2% 0% 4 10 13 11 12 9 10 8 7 6 5 4
UT Rio Grande Valley 6 3% 2% 1% 0% 3 8 10 11 11 10 11 9 9 8 7 5
East Texas A&M 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 6 8 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 6
SE Louisiana 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 8 9 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 6
New Orleans 7 2% 1% 1% 0% 2 5 7 8 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8
Nicholls St. 8 1% 1% 0% 0% 1 3 6 7 8 10 10 10 11 11 11 11
Northwestern St. 8 1% 0% 0% 0% 1 2 4 5 7 8 10 10 12 12 14 15
Incarnate Word 9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 12 14 17 19

Team Expected Record Projected Conference Record
Conf Overall 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 17 - 4 22 - 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 8 11 16 17 17 12 7 2
Stephen F. Austin 14 - 8 17 - 11 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 5 7 10 11 13 13 12 9 6 4 2 0 0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 14 - 16 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 11 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 1 0 0
Lamar 11 - 11 14 - 16 0 0 1 2 3 5 8 10 11 12 12 11 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0
Houston Christian 11 - 11 16 - 14 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 12 12 11 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0
UT Rio Grande Valley 10 - 12 12 - 18 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 10 12 13 13 11 9 7 4 2 2 1 0 0
East Texas A&M 10 - 12 14 - 17 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 12 13 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0
SE Louisiana 10 - 11 13 - 19 0 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 11 13 14 12 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
New Orleans 10 - 11 12 - 18 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 9 12 13 13 11 10 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 0
Nicholls St. 9 - 12 12 - 18 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 13 14 13 10 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0
Northwestern St. 8 - 14 10 - 20 0 0 1 3 5 8 10 13 14 13 12 9 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0
Incarnate Word 8 - 14 8 - 24 0 0 1 3 6 10 13 14 14 13 10 7 4 3 2 1 0 0 0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
Team Tourney Bid Auto At-Large Exp Seed At-Large Chances 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid
McNeese St. 46% 45% 1% 14 Likely Out 1 4 18 17 6 54
Stephen F. Austin 19% 19% 0% Negligible 2 6 9 2 81
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8% 8% 0% Negligible 2 5 1 92
Lamar 6% 6% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 94
Houston Christian 5% 5% 0% Negligible 1 3 2 95
UT Rio Grande Valley 4% 4% 0% Negligible 0 2 2 96
SE Louisiana 3% 3% 0% Negligible 1 2 1 97
New Orleans 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 97
East Texas A&M 3% 3% 0% Negligible 0 2 1 97
Nicholls St. 2% 2% 0% Negligible 0 1 1 98
Northwestern St. 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99
Incarnate Word 1% 1% 0% Negligible 0 1 99

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100% 1.0 100 0
1st Round 83% 0.8 17 82 0
2nd Round 8% 0.1 92 8
Sweet Sixteen 2% 0.0 98 2
Elite Eight 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Four 0% 0.0 100 0
Final Game 0% 0.0 100
Champion 0% 0.0 100

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 46% 3% 44% 6% 1%
Stephen F. Austin 19% 7% 15% 1%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8% 4% 6%
Lamar 6% 4% 4%
Houston Christian 5% 3% 3%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4% 4% 3%
SE Louisiana 3% 2% 2%
New Orleans 3% 2% 2%
East Texas A&M 3% 2% 2%
Nicholls St. 2% 1% 1%
Northwestern St. 1% 1% 1%
Incarnate Word 1% 1%