Pre-tourney Rankings
Troy
Sun Belt
2016-17
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#129
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#152
Pace68.8#143
Improvement+4.8#23

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#81
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#104
Layup/Dunks-0.2#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#210
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#105
Freethrows+1.5#82
Improvement+7.6#1

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#222
First Shot-1.0#196
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#260
Layups/Dunks-2.5#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#247
Freethrows-0.9#229
Improvement-2.8#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier n/a n/a n/a
Average Seed 15.1 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% n/a n/a
First Round99.8% n/a n/a
Second Round4.6% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.7% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.1% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 15 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 14, 2016 225   Eastern Illinois W 70-67 79%     1 - 0 -3.6 -6.0 +2.3
  Nov 17, 2016 193   @ UAB L 51-74 54%     1 - 1 -22.1 -23.4 +2.1
  Nov 21, 2016 225   @ Eastern Illinois L 67-71 63%     1 - 2 -5.5 -3.6 -2.0
  Nov 23, 2016 104   @ San Francisco L 67-79 33%     1 - 3 -5.5 +6.0 -12.5
  Nov 25, 2016 264   @ Hawaii W 65-63 69%     2 - 3 -1.5 -6.5 +5.0
  Dec 01, 2016 279   South Florida L 74-80 86%     2 - 4 -15.9 -6.6 -8.9
  Dec 04, 2016 342   Alabama St. W 83-65 96%     3 - 4 -0.2 +2.6 -2.8
  Dec 10, 2016 351   Alabama A&M W 88-59 98%     4 - 4 +5.5 +6.1 +0.7
  Dec 17, 2016 58   @ USC L 77-82 17%     4 - 5 +6.8 +9.3 -2.5
  Dec 19, 2016 140   @ Wyoming L 66-72 42%     4 - 6 -2.1 -10.1 +8.6
  Dec 22, 2016 268   Cornell W 92-84 79%     5 - 6 +1.5 +11.5 -10.5
  Dec 23, 2016 339   Chicago St. W 83-65 93%     6 - 6 +3.2 +9.6 -5.4
  Jan 02, 2017 241   @ South Alabama L 75-76 66%     6 - 7 0 - 1 -3.4 +2.2 -5.6
  Jan 07, 2017 181   @ Georgia Southern L 82-86 50%     6 - 8 0 - 2 -2.2 +8.5 -10.7
  Jan 09, 2017 128   @ Georgia St. W 80-77 40%     7 - 8 1 - 2 +7.4 +17.9 -10.2
  Jan 14, 2017 81   Texas Arlington W 93-71 43%     8 - 8 2 - 2 +25.6 +18.4 +6.6
  Jan 16, 2017 174   Texas St. L 71-75 67%     8 - 9 2 - 3 -6.9 +7.9 -15.3
  Jan 21, 2017 136   @ Arkansas St. L 80-82 42%     8 - 10 2 - 4 +2.0 +21.1 -19.4
  Jan 23, 2017 235   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 78-69 65%     9 - 10 3 - 4 +6.9 +11.8 -4.3
  Jan 28, 2017 128   Georgia St. L 72-78 59%     9 - 11 3 - 5 -6.6 +2.9 -9.8
  Jan 30, 2017 181   Georgia Southern W 83-76 69%     10 - 11 4 - 5 +3.7 +5.5 -1.9
  Feb 04, 2017 241   South Alabama L 71-76 81%     10 - 12 4 - 6 -12.4 +0.5 -13.3
  Feb 11, 2017 151   @ Louisiana W 100-88 45%     11 - 12 5 - 6 +15.2 +18.1 -3.7
  Feb 13, 2017 260   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-72 OT 69%     12 - 12 6 - 6 -2.2 +3.4 -5.6
  Feb 18, 2017 201   Coastal Carolina W 87-78 74%     13 - 12 7 - 6 +4.2 +14.9 -10.4
  Feb 20, 2017 272   Appalachian St. W 76-66 85%     14 - 12 8 - 6 +0.7 -2.6 +3.3
  Feb 25, 2017 174   @ Texas St. L 59-63 48%     14 - 13 8 - 7 -1.8 +3.7 -6.5
  Feb 27, 2017 81   @ Texas Arlington L 67-82 25%     14 - 14 8 - 8 -6.3 -4.2 -1.7
  Mar 02, 2017 136   Arkansas St. W 81-72 61%     15 - 14 9 - 8 +7.9 +3.0 +4.5
  Mar 04, 2017 235   Arkansas Little Rock W 57-54 80%     16 - 14 10 - 8 -4.2 +0.0 -3.3
  Mar 08, 2017 272   Appalachian St. W 84-64 79%     17 - 14 +13.3 +14.3 +0.6
  Mar 10, 2017 181   Georgia Southern W 90-70 60%     18 - 14 +19.3 +23.9 -2.7
  Mar 11, 2017 128   Georgia St. W 74-63 50%     19 - 14 +12.9 +3.3 +9.7
  Mar 12, 2017 174   Texas St. W 59-53 58%     20 - 14 +5.7 -4.9 +11.3
Projected Record 20.0 - 14.0 10.0 - 8.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15.1 0.0 4.2 83.7 12.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 4.2 83.7 12.0