Pre-tourney Rankings
Ohio Valley
2017-18


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
75 Murray St. 97.9%   13   24 - 5 16 - 2 24 - 5 16 - 2 +7.3      +3.7 75 +3.7 75 66.5 240 +8.0 66 +8.4 1
91 Belmont 0.0%   24 - 9 15 - 3 24 - 9 15 - 3 +5.7      +2.9 91 +2.9 91 67.4 219 +5.1 95 +5.0 2
156 Jacksonville St. 0.0%   20 - 12 11 - 7 20 - 12 11 - 7 +0.7      +0.4 156 +0.4 156 64.8 282 +0.4 163 -0.1 4
200 Austin Peay 0.0%   16 - 14 12 - 6 16 - 14 12 - 6 -2.3      -1.2 200 -1.2 200 70.4 143 -0.5 176 +1.1 3
209 Tennessee St. 0.0%   13 - 15 10 - 8 13 - 15 10 - 8 -2.9      -1.4 209 -1.4 209 64.2 302 -3.4 220 -2.3 6
224 Tennessee Tech 0.0%   17 - 14 10 - 8 17 - 14 10 - 8 -3.6      -1.8 224 -1.8 224 75.0 49 -0.4 173 -1.0 5
254 Eastern Illinois 0.0%   10 - 19 7 - 11 10 - 19 7 - 11 -5.8      -2.9 254 -2.9 254 64.1 303 -6.4 268 -6.0 8
260 Southeast Missouri St. 0.8%   12 - 17 8 - 10 12 - 17 8 - 10 -6.0      -3.0 260 -3.0 260 70.9 125 -5.7 254 -5.4 7
281 Morehead St. 0.5%   6 - 21 4 - 14 6 - 21 4 - 14 -7.2      -3.6 281 -3.6 281 70.3 147 -9.5 304 -11.4 12
288 Eastern Kentucky 0.4%   9 - 20 5 - 13 9 - 20 5 - 13 -7.5      -3.8 288 -3.8 288 69.2 175 -7.7 283 -9.5 10
299 Tennessee Martin 0.3%   8 - 21 5 - 13 8 - 21 5 - 13 -8.2      -4.1 299 -4.1 299 65.1 279 -10.0 313 -9.8 11
316 SIU Edwardsville 0.0%   9 - 21 5 - 13 9 - 21 5 - 13 -9.6      -4.8 316 -4.8 316 71.5 111 -8.0 289 -8.6 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Murray St. 1.0 100.0
Belmont 2.0 100.0
Jacksonville St. 4.0 100.0
Austin Peay 3.0 100.0
Tennessee St. 5.0 100.0
Tennessee Tech 5.0 100.0
Eastern Illinois 8.0 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 7.0 100.0
Morehead St. 12.0 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 9.0 100.0
Tennessee Martin 9.0 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Murray St. 16 - 2 100.0
Belmont 15 - 3 100.0
Jacksonville St. 11 - 7 100.0
Austin Peay 12 - 6 100.0
Tennessee St. 10 - 8 100.0
Tennessee Tech 10 - 8 100.0
Eastern Illinois 7 - 11 100.0
Southeast Missouri St. 8 - 10 100.0
Morehead St. 4 - 14 100.0
Eastern Kentucky 5 - 13 100.0
Tennessee Martin 5 - 13 100.0
SIU Edwardsville 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Murray St. 100.0% 100.0
Belmont
Jacksonville St.
Austin Peay
Tennessee St.
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois
Southeast Missouri St.
Morehead St.
Eastern Kentucky
Tennessee Martin
SIU Edwardsville


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Murray St. 97.9% 97.9% 0.0% 13   0.0 4.3 45.1 47.5 1.1 2.1 1.0%
Belmont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Murray St. 97.9% 0.0% 97.9% 22.3% 6.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Belmont 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9
2nd Round 22.3% 0.2 77.7 22.3
Sweet Sixteen 6.3% 0.1 93.7 6.3
Elite Eight 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0