Troy
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#237
Achievement Rating-4.1#219
Pace68.8#185
Improvement-4.9#333

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#149
First Shot+1.9#129
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#246
Layup/Dunks+3.2#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#145
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement-3.5#315

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#312
First Shot-4.6#311
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#253
Layups/Dunks-2.1#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#339
Freethrows+0.6#134
Improvement-1.4#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 1.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 0.9% 1.5% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 46.5% 30.8% 67.5%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 57.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2018 123   @ Saint Louis L 58-62 16%     0 - 1 +2.0 -3.1 +4.7
  Nov 12, 2018 91   @ Pittsburgh L 75-84 12%     0 - 2 -0.9 +8.9 -9.9
  Nov 15, 2018 134   Southern Miss L 66-81 34%     0 - 3 -15.2 +0.8 -17.8
  Nov 18, 2018 302   Central Arkansas W 82-77 73%     1 - 3 -5.8 +1.8 -7.7
  Nov 24, 2018 322   North Alabama W 77-58 79%     2 - 3 +6.0 +2.1 +4.4
  Nov 29, 2018 139   Austin Peay L 74-79 35%     2 - 4 -5.5 -9.9 +5.0
  Dec 03, 2018 19   @ Florida St. L 67-83 3%     2 - 5 +2.1 -3.4 +7.2
  Dec 16, 2018 121   @ Western Kentucky W 87-81 16%     3 - 5 +12.1 +10.8 +0.8
  Dec 21, 2018 163   @ UAB W 74-73 25%     4 - 5 +3.5 +3.4 +0.1
  Dec 29, 2018 332   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71-63 83%     5 - 5 -6.5 -0.5 -5.2
  Jan 03, 2019 158   Coastal Carolina L 75-88 42%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -15.5 +0.2 -15.6
  Jan 05, 2019 199   Appalachian St. W 89-85 52%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -1.0 +9.1 -10.2
  Jan 10, 2019 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 59-73 33%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -14.0 -14.2 +0.5
  Jan 12, 2019 267   @ Arkansas St. W 90-85 45%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +1.7 +8.0 -6.7
  Jan 17, 2019 127   Georgia Southern L 82-90 32%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -7.7 +3.2 -10.3
  Jan 19, 2019 130   Georgia St. W 77-75 33%     8 - 8 3 - 3 +2.1 +9.7 -7.4
  Jan 24, 2019 154   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-75 23%     8 - 9 3 - 4 -2.7 -5.1 +2.4
  Jan 26, 2019 190   @ Louisiana L 81-86 30%     8 - 10 3 - 5 -4.2 +4.0 -8.0
  Feb 02, 2019 218   @ South Alabama L 75-81 36%     8 - 11 3 - 6 -6.7 +7.6 -14.8
  Feb 07, 2019 206   Arkansas Little Rock L 70-84 53%     8 - 12 3 - 7 -19.4 -3.1 -16.7
  Feb 09, 2019 267   Arkansas St. W 84-79 66%     9 - 12 4 - 7 -3.8 +5.3 -9.1
  Feb 13, 2019 130   @ Georgia St. L 63-77 17%     9 - 13 4 - 8 -8.5 -8.3 -0.1
  Feb 15, 2019 127   @ Georgia Southern L 51-76 17%     9 - 14 4 - 9 -19.2 -26.9 +11.2
  Feb 23, 2019 218   South Alabama W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 28, 2019 124   Texas St. L 67-72 33%    
  Mar 02, 2019 166   Texas Arlington L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 07, 2019 199   @ Appalachian St. L 78-83 31%    
  Mar 09, 2019 158   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-78 23%    
Projected Record 10.9 - 17.1 5.9 - 12.1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 0.5 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 3.4 0.2 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 9.0 2.0 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.2 8.6 7.5 0.2 16.5 9th
10th 0.0 3.7 14.6 1.8 20.1 10th
11th 1.3 12.4 7.6 0.1 21.5 11th
12th 9.0 11.2 1.1 0.0 21.4 12th
Total 10.4 27.6 33.5 20.8 6.9 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 6.9% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 6.8
7-11 20.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 20.5
6-12 33.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 33.2
5-13 27.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 27.4
4-14 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 7.7%