Louisiana
Sun Belt
2017-18 - 2018-19 - 2019-20
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#190
Achievement Rating+0.6#162
Pace79.5#20
Improvement-5.0#335

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#131
First Shot+1.6#137
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#181
Layup/Dunks+0.5#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#140
Freethrows+2.1#43
Improvement+0.8#145

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#260
First Shot-0.6#189
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#344
Layups/Dunks+0.2#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#207
Freethrows-1.8#287
Improvement-5.8#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 71.3% 85.8% 55.7%
.500 or above in Conference 41.4% 58.1% 23.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.4% 8.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round3.2% 4.1% 2.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 7   @ Tennessee L 65-87 2%     0 - 1 +0.2 +0.5 -0.7
  Nov 16, 2018 11   @ Kansas L 76-89 4%     0 - 2 +6.3 +7.3 +0.1
  Nov 19, 2018 180   Colorado St. W 91-73 47%     1 - 2 +16.9 +4.7 +10.2
  Nov 20, 2018 67   Toledo L 64-77 20%     1 - 3 -5.9 -4.3 -1.7
  Nov 21, 2018 285   Tulane W 68-61 69%     2 - 3 +0.1 -3.9 +4.2
  Nov 28, 2018 279   @ New Orleans W 77-73 58%     3 - 3 +0.1 -5.0 +4.5
  Dec 01, 2018 340   Southern W 88-78 90%     4 - 3 -6.2 +0.8 -7.7
  Dec 11, 2018 283   Prairie View W 122-90 77%     5 - 3 +22.5 +14.0 +0.3
  Dec 15, 2018 141   Louisiana Tech L 62-83 46%     5 - 4 -21.8 -11.3 -10.0
  Dec 18, 2018 317   @ McNeese St. W 80-67 69%     6 - 4 +6.1 +0.0 +5.9
  Dec 29, 2018 258   @ SE Louisiana W 73-72 54%     7 - 4 -2.0 -4.3 +2.3
  Jan 03, 2019 267   Arkansas St. L 83-94 75%     7 - 5 0 - 1 -19.8 -7.3 -10.9
  Jan 05, 2019 206   Arkansas Little Rock W 75-61 63%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +8.6 -1.4 +9.7
  Jan 10, 2019 130   @ Georgia St. L 76-89 24%     8 - 6 1 - 2 -7.5 +0.9 -7.7
  Jan 12, 2019 127   @ Georgia Southern W 87-85 23%     9 - 6 2 - 2 +7.8 +5.2 +2.3
  Jan 19, 2019 154   @ Louisiana Monroe L 95-99 31%     9 - 7 2 - 3 -0.7 +4.2 -4.2
  Jan 24, 2019 218   South Alabama W 88-84 66%     10 - 7 3 - 3 -2.1 +9.4 -11.6
  Jan 26, 2019 237   Troy W 86-81 70%     11 - 7 4 - 3 -2.2 +4.2 -6.6
  Jan 31, 2019 199   @ Appalachian St. L 77-104 41%     11 - 8 4 - 4 -26.6 -10.6 -11.6
  Feb 02, 2019 158   @ Coastal Carolina L 79-96 32%     11 - 9 4 - 5 -14.1 +0.8 -13.4
  Feb 06, 2019 127   @ Georgia Southern L 86-103 23%     11 - 10 4 - 6 -11.2 +9.2 -19.2
  Feb 08, 2019 130   Georgia St. W 76-72 43%     12 - 10 5 - 6 +4.1 +2.6 +1.4
  Feb 16, 2019 154   Louisiana Monroe W 83-82 52%    
  Feb 21, 2019 166   @ Texas Arlington L 72-76 33%    
  Feb 23, 2019 124   @ Texas St. L 70-78 22%    
  Feb 28, 2019 158   Coastal Carolina W 80-79 54%    
  Mar 03, 2019 199   Appalachian St. W 88-85 63%    
  Mar 07, 2019 206   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 80-82 42%    
  Mar 09, 2019 267   @ Arkansas St. W 82-81 54%    
Projected Record 15.2 - 13.8 8.2 - 9.8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.2 2.4 3rd
4th 0.4 3.4 1.5 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.3 5.6 6.4 0.4 12.7 5th
6th 0.1 6.0 12.5 2.3 0.0 20.8 6th
7th 0.1 4.8 16.1 5.3 0.1 26.5 7th
8th 0.7 9.2 4.3 0.1 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 3.0 5.5 0.3 8.8 9th
10th 0.2 3.6 1.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.9 1.7 0.0 2.6 11th
12th 0.7 0.2 0.9 12th
Total 1.8 9.1 20.7 26.9 23.9 12.8 4.1 0.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 23.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.6% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 4.1% 10.1% 10.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.7
10-8 12.8% 5.9% 5.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 12.0
9-9 23.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 23.0
8-10 26.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 26.2
7-11 20.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 20.4
6-12 9.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.0
5-13 1.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 0.8 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic/Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.5 3.8 53.8 34.6 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.3%