Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
138 Stephen F. Austin 43.5%   13   14 - 3 8 - 1 23 - 5 17 - 3 +1.8      -0.5 189 +2.2 107 74.7 58 +9.6 53 +3.6 1
177 Sam Houston St. 21.7%   10 - 6 7 - 2 17 - 10 14 - 6 -0.7      -0.5 192 -0.2 169 74.1 62 0.0 169 -1.0 4
212 Abilene Christian 12.5%   7 - 8 6 - 2 15 - 12 14 - 6 -3.1      -3.9 285 +0.8 143 69.6 165 -3.6 223 -0.1 3
214 Nicholls St. 13.5%   10 - 7 8 - 2 16 - 11 14 - 6 -3.2      -3.7 283 +0.5 150 71.2 122 +0.6 159 +0.7 2
261 McNeese St. 5.1%   7 - 9 6 - 3 14 - 13 13 - 7 -5.5      0.0 178 -5.5 319 70.9 132 -4.9 244 -3.4 5
278 Lamar 1.3%   7 - 11 4 - 6 12 - 16 9 - 11 -6.6      -5.4 313 -1.2 205 69.9 152 -7.2 284 -9.9 10
290 TX A&M Corpus Christi 1.3%   7 - 12 5 - 5 12 - 17 10 - 10 -7.3      -6.0 322 -1.3 206 63.7 313 -7.2 283 -7.6 6
305 Central Arkansas 0.3%   4 - 15 4 - 5 8 - 22 8 - 12 -8.6      -2.6 250 -6.0 329 80.2 18 -10.4 317 -8.8 9
321 New Orleans 0.1%   2 - 14 2 - 8 6 - 20 6 - 14 -9.8      -3.2 269 -6.6 335 72.3 95 -15.7 341 -15.5 11
328 SE Louisiana 0.3%   3 - 14 3 - 6 8 - 20 8 - 12 -10.4      -6.7 330 -3.7 280 75.3 48 -11.4 326 -8.5 8
331 Northwestern St. 0.3%   4 - 11 4 - 5 9 - 17 9 - 11 -10.7      -6.8 333 -3.8 285 76.4 34 -10.6 319 -8.2 7
344 Houston Baptist 0.0%   1 - 16 1 - 7 4 - 25 4 - 16 -14.5      +1.4 137 -15.9 353 88.3 2 -19.0 345 -17.5 12
348 Incarnate Word 0.0%   1 - 15 1 - 7 3 - 25 3 - 17 -17.4      -8.4 343 -9.0 344 66.2 258 -21.8 350 -18.6 13






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Stephen F. Austin 1.4 74.0 15.4 6.5 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 2.7 18.6 29.3 24.2 17.9 8.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 3.0 14.6 24.9 25.0 21.2 10.9 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
Nicholls St. 2.8 15.4 30.9 23.8 16.7 11.0 1.7 0.4 0.1
McNeese St. 4.2 2.5 11.8 17.3 22.8 30.4 8.8 3.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lamar 7.5 0.1 0.4 2.0 6.9 18.8 21.9 21.7 16.6 8.7 2.3 0.5 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.4 0.0 0.6 1.9 6.4 15.2 34.1 20.7 12.0 5.8 2.6 0.6 0.1
Central Arkansas 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 5.2 14.6 18.8 17.6 17.4 15.6 7.6 1.4 0.1
New Orleans 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.8 5.1 8.8 13.7 21.3 33.2 12.6 2.0
SE Louisiana 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 9.9 14.3 17.2 19.3 18.6 11.8 4.4 0.5
Northwestern St. 7.8 0.2 0.5 2.0 6.0 17.2 20.2 17.8 16.3 12.0 6.3 1.4 0.1
Houston Baptist 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 3.6 7.5 20.6 41.6 23.4
Incarnate Word 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.8 9.9 27.9 58.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Stephen F. Austin 17 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 6.2 13.7 22.5 27.0 20.5 7.2
Sam Houston St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 8.1 15.7 22.6 24.6 16.1 7.8 1.5
Abilene Christian 14 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.7 5.0 11.1 17.6 22.6 21.1 14.0 5.3 1.1
Nicholls St. 14 - 6 0.1 1.1 3.6 8.6 16.4 22.6 22.8 16.6 7.0 1.2
McNeese St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.1 7.2 14.7 20.0 20.4 17.8 10.4 4.4 0.8
Lamar 9 - 11 0.0 0.9 4.6 12.9 22.1 25.2 19.9 10.2 3.4 0.8 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 10 - 10 0.0 0.8 4.6 11.5 19.0 24.1 21.6 12.2 5.0 1.0 0.1
Central Arkansas 8 - 12 0.5 3.3 9.7 17.0 22.4 21.2 14.6 7.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 6 - 14 0.3 2.8 9.6 17.9 24.2 21.7 14.1 6.6 2.3 0.4 0.0
SE Louisiana 8 - 12 0.3 1.9 6.5 13.8 20.3 21.9 17.2 11.2 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.1
Northwestern St. 9 - 11 0.4 2.4 7.6 15.4 20.4 21.4 17.2 9.1 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.0
Houston Baptist 4 - 16 2.1 8.9 17.8 24.2 21.0 14.2 7.1 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 3 - 17 10.2 22.8 26.6 21.1 11.7 5.0 1.7 0.6 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Stephen F. Austin 74.0% 57.3 13.2 3.1 0.4
Sam Houston St. 18.6% 8.8 7.0 2.4 0.4
Abilene Christian 14.6% 6.1 5.6 2.5 0.4
Nicholls St. 15.4% 6.6 6.3 2.2 0.3
McNeese St. 2.5% 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.2
Lamar
TX A&M Corpus Christi 0.0% 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.0% 0.0 0.0
New Orleans
SE Louisiana
Northwestern St.
Houston Baptist
Incarnate Word


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Stephen F. Austin 43.5% 43.5% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.6 10.2 20.3 10.8 1.6 0.0 56.5 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.2 1.3 5.6 10.1 4.6 78.3 0.0%
Abilene Christian 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 4.4 7.5 87.5 0.0%
Nicholls St. 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.7 7.2 3.0 86.5 0.0%
McNeese St. 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 4.4 94.9 0.0%
Lamar 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2 1.1 98.7 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Houston Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Stephen F. Austin 43.5% 0.0% 43.5% 5.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 21.7% 1.0% 21.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 12.5% 3.0% 11.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 13.5% 0.8% 13.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 5.1% 3.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.0% 1.0 5.0 95.0
2nd Round 7.7% 0.1 92.3 7.7
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0