Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
183 Sam Houston St. 27.0%   16   0 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 14 - 6 -1.3      -0.5 187 -0.9 186 66.5 274 -1.1 198 0.0 1
250 Nicholls St. 11.8%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 8 -4.7      -1.7 224 -3.0 266 71.1 143 +10.0 57 0.0 1
256 Stephen F. Austin 11.4%   2 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 -5.0      -2.9 268 -2.0 228 75.5 66 -0.5 185 0.0 1
257 New Orleans 12.1%   0 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 13 12 - 8 -5.0      -2.9 267 -2.1 230 70.0 174 -2.8 220 0.0 1
259 Lamar 11.1%   1 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -5.0      -3.1 277 -1.9 218 69.9 177 -0.9 191 0.0 1
284 Abilene Christian 8.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 15 11 - 9 -6.7      -4.4 300 -2.2 235 64.7 302 -13.9 328 0.0 1
294 Houston Baptist 5.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 10 - 10 -7.6      -0.2 178 -7.3 341 87.7 5 -7.9 273 0.0 1
301 Central Arkansas 4.2%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 19 10 - 10 -7.9      -2.0 241 -5.9 325 77.7 39 +1.1 163 0.0 1
302 TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.6%   0 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 9 - 11 -8.4      -5.4 316 -3.0 267 63.7 318 -14.2 329 0.0 1
307 McNeese St. 2.9%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 17 9 - 11 -9.1      -3.1 276 -6.0 330 67.1 257 -12.2 315 0.0 1
317 SE Louisiana 2.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 19 8 - 12 -10.4      -7.4 335 -3.0 265 72.8 101 -18.3 346 0.0 1
343 Northwestern St. 0.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 19 6 - 14 -13.5      -7.5 336 -6.0 328 70.6 156 -15.7 340 0.0 1
347 Incarnate Word 0.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 15 -14.7      -5.1 311 -9.6 351 65.7 288 -9.5 290 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Sam Houston St. 3.2 35.9 18.0 12.2 8.9 6.9 5.2 4.0 3.1 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2
Nicholls St. 4.9 14.5 13.7 12.6 11.2 10.0 8.7 7.7 6.5 5.3 4.1 3.0 1.9 0.9
Stephen F. Austin 4.9 14.5 13.8 12.3 11.0 10.1 8.6 7.6 6.4 5.3 4.3 3.2 2.0 1.0
New Orleans 4.7 16.1 15.2 13.0 11.0 9.5 8.2 7.0 5.7 4.9 3.7 2.7 1.9 0.9
Lamar 5.1 13.1 12.9 12.3 11.2 10.0 8.8 7.8 6.7 5.7 4.7 3.5 2.2 1.0
Abilene Christian 6.0 9.2 9.6 9.8 9.7 9.3 9.0 8.6 8.2 7.6 6.8 5.5 4.2 2.5
Houston Baptist 6.5 5.9 7.6 8.8 9.4 9.5 9.8 9.6 9.2 8.5 7.8 6.4 4.8 2.8
Central Arkansas 6.9 4.6 6.2 7.4 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.0 9.8 8.6 7.5 6.0 3.3
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.3 3.5 5.4 6.6 7.7 8.5 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.1 9.7 8.8 6.9 3.8
McNeese St. 7.4 3.5 5.4 6.5 7.5 8.4 8.8 9.5 9.6 10.0 9.5 8.9 7.4 4.9
SE Louisiana 8.4 2.1 3.3 4.2 5.3 6.2 7.1 8.3 9.2 10.3 11.2 12.1 12.0 8.8
Northwestern St. 10.0 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.4 5.6 6.9 9.0 11.5 14.5 18.3 20.8
Incarnate Word 10.7 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.0 4.1 5.5 7.0 10.2 14.2 20.3 30.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Sam Houston St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.3 7.2 9.0 10.6 11.7 12.0 11.7 9.8 7.3 4.2 1.5
Nicholls St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.0 7.9 9.8 10.9 11.4 11.5 10.3 8.5 6.2 4.2 2.2 0.9 0.2
Stephen F. Austin 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.8 4.4 6.2 7.7 9.7 10.9 11.4 11.1 10.2 8.4 6.3 4.1 2.3 0.9 0.2
New Orleans 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.5 7.4 8.8 10.5 11.2 11.5 10.5 9.3 7.2 4.8 2.8 1.1 0.3
Lamar 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.3 4.7 6.5 8.4 9.8 10.9 11.5 11.0 10.2 7.9 5.8 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.2
Abilene Christian 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.6 5.1 6.9 8.4 9.8 10.5 10.6 10.2 9.3 7.6 5.6 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
Houston Baptist 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 3.9 6.0 7.9 9.7 10.9 11.4 11.2 9.9 8.5 6.5 4.5 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Central Arkansas 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.9 8.9 10.9 11.6 11.4 10.5 9.2 7.4 5.2 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 5.8 7.8 10.1 11.0 11.6 11.5 10.2 8.4 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
McNeese St. 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 3.9 6.0 8.1 9.8 10.9 11.3 11.1 10.0 8.3 6.3 4.6 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 8 - 12 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.4 6.8 8.8 10.5 10.9 11.4 10.7 9.3 7.5 5.7 4.3 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 6 - 14 1.0 3.1 6.2 9.1 11.4 12.2 12.5 11.3 9.6 7.7 5.9 4.1 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 5 - 15 1.9 5.4 9.0 11.9 13.2 13.3 12.0 9.9 7.8 5.7 4.1 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Sam Houston St. 35.9% 26.4 7.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 14.5% 9.2 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 14.5% 9.2 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 16.1% 10.2 4.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lamar 13.1% 8.4 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
Abilene Christian 9.2% 5.7 2.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 5.9% 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 4.6% 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.5% 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
McNeese St. 3.5% 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Sam Houston St. 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.8 8.7 8.8 73.0 0.0%
Nicholls St. 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.4 4.2 88.2 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.8 5.6 88.6 0.0%
New Orleans 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.5 6.8 87.9 0.0%
Lamar 11.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.8 5.5 88.9 0.0%
Abilene Christian 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 5.5 92.0 0.0%
Houston Baptist 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.0 94.7 0.0%
Central Arkansas 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 95.8 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.2 96.4 0.0%
McNeese St. 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 97.1 0.0%
SE Louisiana 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 98.0 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Sam Houston St. 27.0% 4.1% 25.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 11.8% 1.7% 10.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 11.4% 2.8% 10.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 12.1% 3.7% 10.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 11.1% 2.8% 9.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 8.0% 3.6% 6.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 5.3% 2.6% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 4.2% 1.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.6% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 2.9% 2.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 85.8% 0.9 14.2 85.8 0.0
2nd Round 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0