Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21

Last Updated: Feb 25, 2020
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com


View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Kansas Auto 100.0% 50.3% 49.7% 100.0%
Baylor At-Large 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 100.0%
Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 68.3% 31.7% 100.0%
San Diego St. Auto 100.0% 62.9% 37.1% 100.0%
Dayton Auto 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 100.0%
Creighton Auto 100.0% 26.5% 73.5% 100.0%
Duke Auto 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 100.0%
Florida St. At-Large 100.0% 22.6% 77.5% 100.0%
Maryland At-Large 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 100.0%
Villanova At-Large 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 100.0%
Seton Hall At-Large 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 100.0%
Kentucky Auto 100.0% 28.8% 71.2% 100.0%
Louisville At-Large 99.8% 21.8% 78.1% 99.8%
Michigan St. Auto 99.8% 20.3% 79.6% 99.8%
Michigan At-Large 99.8% 10.9% 89.0% 99.8%
Oregon At-Large 100.0% 22.7% 77.2% 100.0%
Penn St. At-Large 99.8% 10.5% 89.3% 99.7%
Ohio St. At-Large 99.2% 7.9% 91.3% 99.1%
Arizona Auto 99.1% 30.9% 68.2% 98.7%
Colorado At-Large 99.9% 20.0% 79.8% 99.8%
Iowa At-Large 99.5% 7.0% 92.5% 99.5%
Auburn At-Large 99.7% 14.2% 85.5% 99.6%
Butler At-Large 99.5% 7.2% 92.3% 99.5%
West Virginia At-Large 98.5% 7.5% 91.0% 98.4%
Wisconsin At-Large 97.9% 7.5% 90.4% 97.7%
BYU At-Large 97.9% 21.7% 76.2% 97.4%
Marquette At-Large 96.6% 11.2% 85.4% 96.2%
Illinois At-Large 92.9% 6.6% 86.3% 92.4%
LSU At-Large 96.1% 15.1% 80.9% 95.4%
Texas Tech At-Large 86.6% 9.6% 77.0% 85.2%
Houston Auto 93.8% 38.2% 55.7% 90.0%
Indiana At-Large 87.8% 2.4% 85.3% 87.5%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Arizona St. At-Large 91.0% 8.1% 82.9% 90.2%
Florida At-Large 80.9% 14.5% 66.4% 77.7%
Virginia At-Large 84.1% 6.0% 78.1% 83.1%
Rutgers At-Large 59.2% 2.9% 56.3% 58.0%
10  Providence At-Large 70.3% 5.3% 65.1% 68.7%
10  Xavier At-Large 66.6% 5.6% 61.0% 64.6%
10  St. Mary's At-Large 79.6% 7.7% 71.9% 77.9%
10  Oklahoma At-Large 64.7% 2.5% 62.2% 63.8%
11  USC At-Large 57.3% 4.3% 52.9% 55.3%
11  Wichita St. At-Large 70.0% 16.4% 53.6% 64.1%
11  Stanford At-Large 50.8% 6.7% 44.1% 47.2%
11  Rhode Island At-Large 60.3% 15.5% 44.8% 53.0%
11  Cincinnati At-Large 59.8% 18.4% 41.4% 50.7%
11  North Carolina St. At-Large 45.3% 2.3% 42.9% 44.0%
12  East Tennessee St. Auto 54.2% 39.4% 14.9% 24.5%
12  Northern Iowa Auto 53.4% 41.6% 11.8% 20.1%
12  Yale Auto 55.8% 55.7% 0.2% 0.4%
12  Liberty Auto 65.6% 65.5% 0.1% 0.2%
13  Vermont Auto 67.7% 67.7%
13  Akron Auto 29.6% 29.6% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Stephen F. Austin Auto 53.5% 53.5% 0.0% 0.0%
13  North Texas Auto 28.9% 28.8% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Hofstra Auto 34.4% 34.4%
14  Colgate Auto 41.1% 41.1%
14  New Mexico St. Auto 47.5% 47.5%
14  Texas St. Auto 27.6% 27.6%
15  Belmont Auto 49.2% 49.2%
15  Northern Colorado Auto 36.1% 36.1%
15  UC Irvine Auto 49.7% 49.7%
15  Wright St. Auto 42.2% 42.2%
16  South Dakota St. Auto 34.0% 34.0%
16  Winthrop Auto 39.0% 39.0%
16  St. Francis (PA) Auto 28.6% 28.6%
16  Siena Auto 23.5% 23.5%
16  Prairie View Auto 46.7% 46.7%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 21.6% 21.6%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Virginia 84.1% 6.0% 78.1% 83.1%
St. Mary's 79.6% 7.7% 71.9% 77.9%
Florida 80.9% 14.5% 66.4% 77.7%
Providence 70.3% 5.3% 65.1% 68.7%
Xavier 66.6% 5.6% 61.0% 64.6%
Wichita St. 70.0% 16.4% 53.6% 64.1%
Oklahoma 64.7% 2.5% 62.2% 63.8%
Rutgers 59.2% 2.9% 56.3% 58.0%
USC 57.3% 4.3% 52.9% 55.3%
Rhode Island 60.3% 15.5% 44.8% 53.0%
Cincinnati 59.8% 18.4% 41.4% 50.7%
Stanford 50.8% 6.7% 44.1% 47.2%
North Carolina St. 45.3% 2.3% 42.9% 44.0%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Mississippi St. 43.4% 7.6% 35.8% 38.7%
Arkansas 35.0% 3.7% 31.3% 32.5%
Utah St. 40.7% 18.1% 22.6% 27.6%
Richmond 33.7% 10.4% 23.3% 26.0%
Georgetown 25.9% 2.3% 23.6% 24.1%
Minnesota 24.9% 2.3% 22.6% 23.1%
Purdue 24.8% 3.9% 20.9% 21.8%
Memphis 26.0% 6.6% 19.4% 20.7%
Alabama 25.5% 6.6% 19.0% 20.3%
UCLA 21.1% 2.7% 18.4% 18.9%
Texas 18.0% 0.7% 17.3% 17.4%
Tennessee 17.9% 3.4% 14.5% 15.0%
South Carolina 18.3% 4.0% 14.4% 15.0%
Notre Dame 16.0% 2.6% 13.5% 13.8%
Syracuse 8.9% 2.0% 6.9% 7.0%
Clemson 7.3% 1.2% 6.1% 6.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 12.0% 7.3% 4.7% 5.0%
Utah 3.5% 0.7% 2.8% 2.8%
UNC Greensboro 25.4% 23.3% 2.1% 2.7%
Oklahoma St. 2.9% 0.5% 2.4% 2.5%
SMU 6.5% 4.3% 2.2% 2.3%
Georgia Tech 2.9% 1.1% 1.8% 1.8%
Tulsa 8.7% 7.1% 1.6% 1.7%
Saint Louis 5.6% 3.9% 1.7% 1.7%
St. John's 2.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2%
Oregon St. 2.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1%
Connecticut 6.4% 5.4% 1.0% 1.0%
Virginia Tech 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6%
Miami (FL) 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Georgia 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
Davidson 6.6% 6.4% 0.3% 0.3%
TCU 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Furman 22.9% 22.8% 0.1% 0.2%
San Francisco 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Boise St. 5.9% 5.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Duquesne 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1%
DePaul 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Nevada 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Missouri 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Washington 2.7% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Temple 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Wake Forest 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%