Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21

Last Updated: Jan 25, 2020
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com


View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Kansas Auto 100.0% 48.3% 51.7% 100.0%
Duke Auto 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% 100.0%
Baylor At-Large 100.0% 21.4% 78.7% 100.0%
Gonzaga Auto 99.9% 68.9% 31.1% 99.8%
West Virginia At-Large 99.9% 17.5% 82.5% 99.9%
Seton Hall Auto 99.8% 28.1% 71.8% 99.8%
San Diego St. Auto 99.8% 58.9% 40.9% 99.5%
Louisville At-Large 99.7% 20.9% 78.8% 99.7%
Michigan St. Auto 99.3% 24.3% 75.0% 99.0%
Maryland At-Large 99.0% 18.3% 80.7% 98.7%
Dayton Auto 99.4% 54.1% 45.3% 98.6%
Florida St. At-Large 99.7% 12.9% 86.8% 99.6%
Villanova At-Large 99.2% 19.2% 80.0% 99.0%
Oregon At-Large 99.5% 22.8% 76.7% 99.4%
Iowa At-Large 95.9% 9.4% 86.5% 95.5%
Butler At-Large 98.4% 14.6% 83.8% 98.1%
Kentucky Auto 97.1% 22.9% 74.3% 96.3%
Illinois At-Large 93.0% 8.0% 85.0% 92.4%
Arizona Auto 93.8% 30.9% 62.9% 91.0%
Auburn At-Large 96.3% 12.6% 83.7% 95.7%
Penn St. At-Large 91.2% 6.3% 85.0% 90.7%
Creighton At-Large 91.3% 11.8% 79.4% 90.1%
Ohio St. At-Large 81.8% 6.7% 75.2% 80.5%
Marquette At-Large 90.2% 12.3% 77.9% 88.8%
Indiana At-Large 80.9% 3.1% 77.8% 80.3%
Wisconsin At-Large 80.4% 5.5% 75.0% 79.3%
Colorado At-Large 95.7% 19.3% 76.4% 94.7%
LSU At-Large 89.0% 13.1% 76.0% 87.4%
Rutgers At-Large 79.9% 5.3% 74.6% 78.8%
Florida At-Large 87.6% 17.9% 69.8% 84.9%
Purdue At-Large 59.3% 5.9% 53.4% 56.8%
Texas Tech At-Large 67.2% 6.4% 60.8% 65.0%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Minnesota At-Large 56.3% 3.8% 52.4% 54.5%
Houston Auto 85.1% 25.8% 59.3% 79.9%
Michigan At-Large 59.0% 3.4% 55.6% 57.5%
Arkansas At-Large 71.8% 6.8% 65.0% 69.7%
10  North Carolina St. At-Large 67.9% 3.5% 64.4% 66.7%
10  Wichita St. At-Large 81.5% 18.4% 63.1% 77.4%
10  Alabama At-Large 58.2% 10.7% 47.5% 53.2%
10  Stanford At-Large 63.0% 10.0% 53.0% 58.8%
11  BYU At-Large 62.9% 14.9% 47.9% 56.3%
11  St. Mary's At-Large 62.7% 13.6% 49.1% 56.8%
11  Oklahoma At-Large 52.1% 2.3% 49.7% 50.9%
11  Memphis At-Large 59.5% 15.2% 44.3% 52.2%
11  Virginia At-Large 47.5% 2.4% 45.0% 46.1%
11  USC At-Large 52.7% 4.8% 47.8% 50.3%
12  East Tennessee St. Auto 41.9% 34.6% 7.3% 11.1%
12  Northern Iowa Auto 46.0% 36.5% 9.5% 14.9%
12  Akron Auto 34.0% 33.5% 0.5% 0.7%
12  Yale Auto 48.6% 48.0% 0.6% 1.2%
13  Liberty Auto 67.9% 67.8% 0.1% 0.2%
13  North Texas Auto 29.9% 29.8% 0.0% 0.0%
13  Vermont Auto 60.8% 60.8%
13  New Mexico St. Auto 53.9% 53.9%
14  Georgia St. Auto 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0%
14  Stephen F. Austin Auto 42.0% 42.0%
14  College of Charleston Auto 24.4% 24.4%
14  Colgate Auto 39.9% 39.9%
15  Wright St. Auto 43.6% 43.6%
15  Belmont Auto 43.7% 43.7%
15  Winthrop Auto 44.8% 44.8%
15  Northern Colorado Auto 27.5% 27.5%
16  UC Irvine Auto 42.7% 42.7%
16  Oral Roberts Auto 31.3% 31.3%
16  St. Francis (PA) Auto 20.1% 20.1%
16  Rider Auto 16.9% 16.9%
16  Prairie View Auto 41.2% 41.2%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 20.7% 20.7%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Florida 87.6% 17.9% 69.8% 84.9%
Ohio St. 81.8% 6.7% 75.2% 80.5%
Indiana 80.9% 3.1% 77.8% 80.3%
Wisconsin 80.4% 5.5% 75.0% 79.3%
Rutgers 79.9% 5.3% 74.6% 78.8%
Wichita St. 81.5% 18.4% 63.1% 77.4%
Arkansas 71.8% 6.8% 65.0% 69.7%
North Carolina St. 67.9% 3.5% 64.4% 66.7%
Texas Tech 67.2% 6.4% 60.8% 65.0%
Stanford 63.0% 10.0% 53.0% 58.8%
Michigan 59.0% 3.4% 55.6% 57.5%
St. Mary's 62.7% 13.6% 49.1% 56.8%
Purdue 59.3% 5.9% 53.4% 56.8%
BYU 62.9% 14.9% 47.9% 56.3%
Minnesota 56.3% 3.8% 52.4% 54.5%
Alabama 58.2% 10.7% 47.5% 53.2%
Memphis 59.5% 15.2% 44.3% 52.2%
Oklahoma 52.1% 2.3% 49.7% 50.9%
USC 52.7% 4.8% 47.8% 50.3%
Virginia 47.5% 2.4% 45.0% 46.1%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Virginia Tech 46.7% 1.8% 45.0% 45.8%
Xavier 42.8% 4.3% 38.6% 40.3%
Tennessee 43.4% 5.4% 38.0% 40.1%
Georgetown 41.6% 4.3% 37.3% 38.9%
Virginia Commonwealth 48.6% 16.9% 31.7% 38.1%
Syracuse 39.8% 3.3% 36.5% 37.8%
Mississippi St. 41.6% 7.3% 34.3% 37.0%
Cincinnati 40.7% 17.4% 23.3% 28.2%
Washington 29.7% 6.1% 23.7% 25.2%
TCU 25.4% 1.3% 24.0% 24.3%
Rhode Island 29.9% 9.4% 20.5% 22.6%
Texas 22.2% 0.9% 21.3% 21.5%
DePaul 20.4% 1.6% 18.8% 19.1%
Richmond 22.9% 7.4% 15.5% 16.7%
Arizona St. 16.5% 3.1% 13.3% 13.7%
Clemson 14.5% 1.0% 13.5% 13.6%
Pittsburgh 14.0% 0.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Providence 15.4% 2.9% 12.5% 12.8%
Georgia 12.9% 1.4% 11.5% 11.6%
Notre Dame 11.1% 1.4% 9.7% 9.8%
Iowa St. 9.2% 1.3% 7.9% 8.0%
Utah St. 23.4% 17.2% 6.2% 7.5%
North Carolina 6.5% 0.8% 5.7% 5.7%
St. John's 6.6% 1.0% 5.6% 5.7%
SMU 11.0% 6.1% 4.9% 5.2%
Miami (FL) 4.1% 0.1% 4.0% 4.0%
Tulsa 10.7% 7.0% 3.7% 4.0%
Oklahoma St. 4.0% 0.4% 3.5% 3.5%
Utah 4.0% 0.6% 3.4% 3.4%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Oregon St. 4.9% 1.7% 3.3% 3.3%
Temple 5.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0%
Missouri 3.5% 1.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Connecticut 7.1% 4.7% 2.4% 2.5%
South Carolina 3.2% 0.8% 2.4% 2.4%
Saint Louis 5.4% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Georgia Tech 2.8% 0.6% 2.2% 2.2%
UNC Greensboro 25.7% 24.3% 1.4% 1.8%
Duquesne 4.6% 3.5% 1.1% 1.2%
Kansas St. 1.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9%
Wake Forest 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8%
Furman 25.7% 25.4% 0.4% 0.5%
New Mexico 3.2% 2.9% 0.3% 0.3%
Mississippi 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Colorado St. 6.3% 6.1% 0.2% 0.2%
San Francisco 1.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2%
Davidson 3.3% 3.1% 0.2% 0.2%
UCLA 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Texas A&M 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Loyola Chicago 21.3% 21.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Harvard 31.0% 30.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Nevada 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Central Florida 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Boise St. 4.2% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Ball St. 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 24.8% 24.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Kent St. 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%