Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21

Last Updated: Nov 16, 2019
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com


View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Duke Auto 99.5% 28.1% 71.4% 99.3%
Kansas Auto 97.1% 36.6% 60.5% 95.5%
Michigan St. Auto 98.9% 36.4% 62.5% 98.3%
Louisville At-Large 98.5% 24.3% 74.2% 98.0%
Kentucky Auto 97.4% 34.7% 62.8% 96.1%
Virginia At-Large 96.1% 17.1% 78.9% 95.3%
North Carolina At-Large 95.0% 16.5% 78.5% 94.0%
Gonzaga Auto 97.9% 67.6% 30.2% 93.4%
Ohio St. At-Large 95.1% 17.3% 77.7% 94.0%
Maryland At-Large 91.9% 17.6% 74.3% 90.1%
Oregon Auto 94.5% 30.1% 64.3% 92.1%
Texas Tech At-Large 88.4% 18.1% 70.3% 85.8%
Arizona At-Large 89.2% 25.3% 63.8% 85.5%
Marquette At-Large 83.9% 19.1% 64.8% 80.1%
Villanova Auto 81.3% 21.4% 59.9% 76.2%
Texas At-Large 77.8% 8.2% 69.6% 75.8%
Seton Hall At-Large 74.6% 17.2% 57.5% 69.4%
Baylor At-Large 69.8% 10.4% 59.4% 66.3%
Oklahoma At-Large 69.1% 6.9% 62.3% 66.9%
West Virginia At-Large 59.8% 5.3% 54.6% 57.6%
Florida St. At-Large 72.2% 4.3% 67.9% 71.0%
Purdue At-Large 70.4% 8.1% 62.3% 67.8%
Auburn At-Large 77.2% 8.8% 68.4% 75.0%
Tennessee At-Large 68.4% 8.5% 59.9% 65.5%
Florida At-Large 70.3% 10.1% 60.2% 66.9%
Michigan At-Large 63.2% 4.6% 58.6% 61.5%
Penn St. At-Large 67.4% 5.4% 62.0% 65.5%
LSU At-Large 69.9% 9.0% 60.9% 66.9%
Arkansas At-Large 70.0% 8.7% 61.3% 67.1%
Xavier At-Large 66.7% 9.6% 57.2% 63.2%
Butler At-Large 58.1% 8.6% 49.4% 54.1%
Wisconsin At-Large 48.6% 3.4% 45.2% 46.8%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Providence At-Large 57.1% 10.0% 47.1% 52.3%
North Carolina St. At-Large 49.5% 2.3% 47.2% 48.3%
Colorado At-Large 71.3% 13.5% 57.8% 66.8%
Mississippi At-Large 50.0% 4.7% 45.3% 47.5%
10  Notre Dame At-Large 49.2% 2.2% 47.0% 48.1%
10  Memphis Auto 72.0% 30.6% 41.4% 59.6%
10  Washington At-Large 61.9% 8.4% 53.5% 58.4%
10  Cincinnati At-Large 70.4% 26.2% 44.2% 59.9%
11  Oklahoma St. At-Large 47.4% 3.6% 43.7% 45.4%
11  St. Mary's At-Large 55.3% 17.4% 37.9% 45.9%
11  Indiana At-Large 44.3% 2.5% 41.7% 42.8%
11  Missouri At-Large 44.8% 4.6% 40.2% 42.2%
11  Virginia Commonwealth Auto 64.1% 30.7% 33.4% 48.1%
11  Utah St. Auto 65.4% 44.1% 21.2% 38.0%
12  Furman Auto 40.9% 33.0% 7.9% 11.8%
12  Western Kentucky Auto 33.1% 27.8% 5.2% 7.3%
12  Northern Iowa Auto 24.0% 20.8% 3.2% 4.1%
12  Toledo Auto 20.0% 18.0% 2.0% 2.5%
13  Vermont Auto 57.6% 56.6% 1.0% 2.4%
13  Harvard Auto 37.8% 36.6% 1.1% 1.8%
13  Belmont Auto 49.6% 48.6% 1.0% 1.9%
13  UC Irvine Auto 47.8% 47.3% 0.5% 1.0%
14  Wright St. Auto 33.6% 33.1% 0.6% 0.8%
14  Liberty Auto 51.9% 51.7% 0.3% 0.6%
14  Georgia Southern Auto 20.8% 20.6% 0.2% 0.2%
14  New Mexico St. Auto 53.2% 52.9% 0.3% 0.6%
15  Northeastern Auto 21.3% 21.1% 0.1% 0.2%
15  South Dakota Auto 24.4% 24.3% 0.1% 0.1%
15  Radford Auto 31.5% 31.5% 0.0% 0.1%
15  Colgate Auto 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Rider Auto 24.9% 24.9% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Southern Utah Auto 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Sam Houston St. Auto 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16  St. Francis (PA) Auto 19.5% 19.5%
16  Grambling St. Auto 29.8% 29.8%
16  Norfolk St. Auto 17.5% 17.5%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Marquette 83.9% 19.1% 64.8% 80.1%
Texas 77.8% 8.2% 69.6% 75.8%
Auburn 77.2% 8.8% 68.4% 75.0%
Florida St. 72.2% 4.3% 67.9% 71.0%
Seton Hall 74.6% 17.2% 57.5% 69.4%
Purdue 70.4% 8.1% 62.3% 67.8%
Arkansas 70.0% 8.7% 61.3% 67.1%
Florida 70.3% 10.1% 60.2% 66.9%
LSU 69.9% 9.0% 60.9% 66.9%
Oklahoma 69.1% 6.9% 62.3% 66.9%
Colorado 71.3% 13.5% 57.8% 66.8%
Baylor 69.8% 10.4% 59.4% 66.3%
Penn St. 67.4% 5.4% 62.0% 65.5%
Tennessee 68.4% 8.5% 59.9% 65.5%
Xavier 66.7% 9.6% 57.2% 63.2%
Michigan 63.2% 4.6% 58.6% 61.5%
Cincinnati 70.4% 26.2% 44.2% 59.9%
Washington 61.9% 8.4% 53.5% 58.4%
West Virginia 59.8% 5.3% 54.6% 57.6%
Butler 58.1% 8.6% 49.4% 54.1%
Providence 57.1% 10.0% 47.1% 52.3%
North Carolina St. 49.5% 2.3% 47.2% 48.3%
Notre Dame 49.2% 2.2% 47.0% 48.1%
Mississippi 50.0% 4.7% 45.3% 47.5%
Wisconsin 48.6% 3.4% 45.2% 46.8%
St. Mary's 55.3% 17.4% 37.9% 45.9%
Oklahoma St. 47.4% 3.6% 43.7% 45.4%
Indiana 44.3% 2.5% 41.7% 42.8%
Missouri 44.8% 4.6% 40.2% 42.2%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Creighton 46.4% 7.7% 38.6% 41.9%
Iowa St. 43.6% 4.5% 39.0% 40.9%
Kansas St. 42.0% 3.1% 38.9% 40.1%
TCU 40.9% 3.3% 37.5% 38.8%
Mississippi St. 40.4% 3.0% 37.4% 38.5%
Houston 47.6% 18.0% 29.7% 36.2%
San Diego St. 50.9% 25.0% 26.0% 34.6%
Georgia Tech 35.1% 0.9% 34.2% 34.5%
Miami (FL) 32.9% 1.1% 31.8% 32.1%
Illinois 33.1% 1.7% 31.5% 32.0%
USC 35.0% 5.1% 29.9% 31.5%
Syracuse 32.1% 1.2% 30.9% 31.3%
Georgia 31.5% 2.3% 29.2% 29.8%
Virginia Tech 28.0% 0.8% 27.2% 27.5%
BYU 32.2% 6.9% 25.3% 27.1%
Utah 28.3% 3.0% 25.2% 26.0%
Arizona St. 29.2% 4.7% 24.5% 25.7%
South Carolina 26.4% 2.5% 23.9% 24.5%
Oregon St. 27.1% 4.0% 23.1% 24.1%
Iowa 24.8% 1.4% 23.4% 23.8%
Wichita St. 29.3% 8.0% 21.3% 23.2%
Alabama 24.4% 2.2% 22.2% 22.7%
DePaul 24.2% 2.2% 22.0% 22.5%
Dayton 35.9% 18.1% 17.7% 21.7%
Boston College 21.8% 0.4% 21.4% 21.5%
UCLA 23.0% 2.8% 20.2% 20.7%
Georgetown 20.3% 2.4% 17.9% 18.3%
Rutgers 18.5% 0.7% 17.8% 17.9%
Rhode Island 28.0% 13.5% 14.5% 16.7%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Clemson 14.4% 0.4% 14.0% 14.0%
St. John's 15.3% 1.8% 13.5% 13.8%
Stanford 14.9% 1.9% 13.1% 13.3%
Minnesota 11.8% 0.7% 11.1% 11.1%
Texas A&M 11.6% 0.7% 10.9% 11.0%
Temple 15.1% 4.8% 10.3% 10.8%
New Mexico 17.9% 11.6% 6.3% 7.1%
Wake Forest 7.2% 0.2% 7.0% 7.0%
Pittsburgh 6.8% 0.1% 6.7% 6.7%
California 6.8% 0.6% 6.2% 6.3%
SMU 9.9% 4.0% 5.9% 6.2%
East Tennessee St. 29.0% 24.4% 4.6% 6.1%
UNC Greensboro 26.7% 22.4% 4.4% 5.7%
San Francisco 7.6% 2.5% 5.0% 5.2%
Connecticut 8.8% 4.1% 4.7% 4.9%
Davidson 15.5% 11.4% 4.1% 4.6%
Northwestern 4.2% 0.2% 4.1% 4.1%
Duquesne 12.1% 8.5% 3.6% 4.0%
Evansville 15.1% 11.6% 3.5% 4.0%
Saint Louis 8.9% 5.6% 3.3% 3.5%
Louisiana Tech 24.5% 22.4% 2.2% 2.8%
Bowling Green 17.6% 15.2% 2.3% 2.8%
Vanderbilt 2.9% 0.2% 2.8% 2.8%
Richmond 6.9% 4.4% 2.5% 2.6%
Nevada 8.6% 6.3% 2.3% 2.4%
Ball St. 17.2% 15.3% 1.9% 2.2%
Kent St. 11.6% 9.6% 2.0% 2.2%
Pepperdine 3.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9%
Washington St. 2.1% 0.5% 1.6% 1.6%
Central Florida 3.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
UTEP 10.8% 9.6% 1.3% 1.4%
Santa Clara 3.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.4%
Tulsa 2.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0%
Penn 22.3% 21.5% 0.7% 0.9%
Nebraska 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9%
Loyola Marymount 2.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9%
Bradley 14.8% 14.2% 0.7% 0.8%
George Mason 3.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.8%
Fresno St. 4.6% 3.9% 0.6% 0.6%
South Florida 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6%
Ohio 5.9% 5.4% 0.6% 0.6%
Boise St. 4.9% 4.3% 0.6% 0.6%
Central Michigan 9.7% 9.2% 0.5% 0.6%
Drake 11.8% 11.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Buffalo 10.1% 9.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Wofford 11.3% 10.9% 0.4% 0.5%
Illinois St. 6.6% 6.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Yale 14.5% 14.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Saint Joseph's 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4%
Old Dominion 9.3% 8.9% 0.4% 0.4%
Middle Tennessee 5.5% 5.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Texas Arlington 19.3% 19.0% 0.3% 0.4%
Murray St. 22.1% 21.8% 0.2% 0.3%
Akron 7.3% 7.0% 0.3% 0.3%
San Diego 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
North Texas 7.3% 7.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Indiana St. 8.2% 7.9% 0.2% 0.2%
Massachusetts 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Colorado St. 1.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Miami (OH) 5.0% 4.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Northern Kentucky 19.5% 19.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Missouri St. 12.1% 11.9% 0.2% 0.2%
UNLV 2.3% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2%
College of Charleston 20.2% 20.1% 0.1% 0.1%
William & Mary 12.7% 12.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Dartmouth 7.7% 7.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Western Carolina 3.8% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Brown 6.3% 6.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Bucknell 24.5% 24.4% 0.1% 0.1%
La Salle 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Valparaiso 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Eastern Michigan 1.9% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgia St. 12.1% 12.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Winthrop 26.8% 26.7% 0.0% 0.1%
Loyola Chicago 9.1% 9.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Air Force 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Texas St. 15.5% 15.4% 0.1% 0.1%
North Florida 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Illinois 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Columbia 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Delaware 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland Baltimore Co. 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
UAB 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Albany 13.3% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Marshall 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Michigan 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Princeton 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
NJIT 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Illinois-Chicago 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacramento St. 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Montana St. 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland St. 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%