Summit League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
150 South Dakota 24.4%   15   4 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 11 - 5 +0.8      +3.3 85 -2.5 247 67.7 241 +9.2 65 0.0 1
161 North Dakota St. 21.1%   2 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 11 10 - 6 0.0      +2.2 104 -2.3 239 64.2 312 +4.5 114 0.0 1
178 Oral Roberts 16.4%   1 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 13 10 - 6 -1.1      +0.6 153 -1.7 208 82.4 13 -4.1 236 0.0 1
195 Nebraska Omaha 13.1%   1 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 7 -2.1      +0.8 148 -2.9 261 69.5 183 -7.0 267 0.0 1
214 South Dakota St. 10.0%   2 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 8 -3.1      -0.6 193 -2.5 249 75.9 59 +2.2 147 0.0 1
266 Purdue Fort Wayne 5.3%   0 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 9 -5.4      +0.1 171 -5.5 318 77.8 36 -15.6 337 0.0 1
271 North Dakota 5.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 9 -5.6      -2.2 246 -3.4 283 73.3 92 +9.3 64 0.0 1
295 Denver 2.7%   1 - 2 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 10 -7.7      -2.7 262 -5.0 312 68.0 234 -2.5 216 0.0 1
312 Western Illinois 1.5%   0 - 3 0 - 0 6 - 18 5 - 11 -9.5      -1.9 236 -7.6 343 68.2 219 -23.0 352 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
South Dakota 2.8 33.7 21.7 15.4 10.8 7.5 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.6
North Dakota St. 3.1 28.1 20.1 15.7 12.3 9.2 6.7 4.2 2.5 1.1
Oral Roberts 3.5 21.0 18.6 16.1 13.5 11.2 8.5 6.0 3.5 1.7
Nebraska Omaha 4.0 15.8 16.2 15.4 14.1 12.5 10.3 7.9 5.2 2.6
South Dakota St. 4.4 11.2 13.1 14.7 14.4 13.9 12.1 10.0 6.9 3.6
Purdue Fort Wayne 5.5 5.4 7.7 9.4 11.8 13.7 14.9 14.7 12.9 9.4
North Dakota 5.5 5.9 7.6 9.5 11.1 12.7 13.9 14.5 14.0 10.8
Denver 6.4 2.2 3.9 5.7 7.9 10.5 13.8 16.9 19.7 19.3
Western Illinois 7.2 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.7 10.9 15.7 22.5 31.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
South Dakota 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.7 8.7 11.4 13.9 14.9 14.4 11.6 7.6 3.9 1.1
North Dakota St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.7 7.2 10.2 12.6 14.1 13.8 12.7 9.8 6.2 2.9 0.8
Oral Roberts 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.3 9.3 11.7 13.3 14.1 13.2 10.6 7.7 4.2 1.8 0.4
Nebraska Omaha 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 5.5 8.3 10.6 12.7 13.8 13.3 11.5 8.7 5.6 3.0 1.1 0.3
South Dakota St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.5 7.1 10.0 12.3 13.8 13.7 12.3 9.8 6.6 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 7 - 9 0.2 1.2 3.1 5.7 8.8 11.4 13.4 13.8 12.8 10.5 8.2 5.3 3.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
North Dakota 7 - 9 0.4 1.6 3.7 6.5 9.1 11.3 12.9 12.9 11.9 10.2 7.7 5.4 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.0
Denver 6 - 10 0.9 3.4 6.9 10.4 13.1 14.2 13.8 12.3 9.4 6.7 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 5 - 11 2.4 6.4 11.1 14.4 15.4 14.3 12.1 9.3 6.4 4.1 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
South Dakota 33.7% 23.3 8.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
North Dakota St. 28.1% 18.9 7.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Oral Roberts 21.0% 13.3 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nebraska Omaha 15.8% 9.7 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
South Dakota St. 11.2% 6.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 5.4% 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Dakota 5.9% 3.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Denver 2.2% 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
South Dakota 24.4% 24.3% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.7 7.5 6.4 2.2 75.6 0.1%
North Dakota St. 21.1% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 5.8 6.4 3.9 78.9 0.0%
Oral Roberts 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.3 5.5 5.9 83.6 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 13.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 4.4 4.7 86.9 0.0%
South Dakota St. 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.4 4.4 90.0 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.9 94.7 0.0%
North Dakota 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.7 94.3 0.0%
Denver 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 97.3 0.0%
Western Illinois 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 98.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
South Dakota 24.4% 0.7% 24.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota St. 21.1% 1.5% 20.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oral Roberts 16.4% 2.9% 15.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska Omaha 13.1% 2.3% 12.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota St. 10.0% 2.3% 8.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 5.3% 2.7% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Dakota 5.7% 1.5% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 2.7% 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 92.5% 0.9 7.5 92.5 0.0
2nd Round 6.0% 0.1 94.0 6.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0