Preseason Rankings
Southern
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
83 Furman 36.2%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 7 13 - 5 +6.8      +3.4 87 +3.4 83 68.6 187 0.0 1 0.0 1
84 UNC Greensboro 35.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 7 13 - 5 +6.6      +2.8 101 +3.8 76 67.8 212 0.0 1 0.0 1
142 East Tennessee St. 10.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 10 10 - 8 +1.2      -0.2 181 +1.5 123 64.8 282 0.0 1 0.0 1
148 Wofford 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 10 10 - 8 +0.9      +1.1 138 -0.2 172 64.0 296 0.0 1 0.0 1
158 Chattanooga 8.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 11 10 - 8 +0.1      +2.1 121 -2.0 229 66.7 240 0.0 1 0.0 1
182 Western Carolina 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 13 9 - 9 -1.2      +2.1 119 -3.4 274 75.3 42 0.0 1 0.0 1
183 Mercer 5.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 13 9 - 9 -1.3      -0.7 192 -0.6 190 68.6 189 0.0 1 0.0 1
276 VMI 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 16 6 - 12 -6.5      -2.1 235 -4.4 300 68.5 195 0.0 1 0.0 1
301 Samford 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 16 5 - 13 -8.1      -1.5 210 -6.5 328 78.0 27 0.0 1 0.0 1
317 The Citadel 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 15 4 - 14 -10.4      -2.0 232 -8.3 340 81.0 9 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Furman 2.3 41.5 24.1 14.4 8.6 5.4 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
UNC Greensboro 2.4 39.2 25.1 14.9 8.8 5.7 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1
East Tennessee St. 4.3 10.9 14.0 16.6 15.7 13.7 11.3 8.8 5.2 3.0 0.8
Wofford 4.4 10.5 13.9 15.1 15.1 14.2 11.8 9.3 6.0 3.0 1.1
Chattanooga 4.7 8.0 11.6 14.2 14.8 14.9 13.2 11.0 7.1 3.7 1.4
Western Carolina 5.3 5.0 8.3 11.8 13.9 14.4 14.8 13.2 10.1 5.9 2.6
Mercer 5.3 4.8 7.9 11.5 13.9 14.8 14.5 13.9 9.9 5.9 2.8
VMI 7.4 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.3 7.9 11.3 15.1 20.0 19.6 15.1
Samford 7.9 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.6 5.4 8.9 13.6 20.0 24.2 21.0
The Citadel 8.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.9 5.6 9.2 16.1 25.4 37.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Furman 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.0 3.8 5.8 8.1 10.6 13.6 14.7 14.1 12.5 8.6 3.5
UNC Greensboro 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.5 3.9 6.0 8.7 11.3 13.1 14.4 15.0 11.8 7.9 2.9
East Tennessee St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.3 4.7 7.2 8.9 10.8 12.5 12.2 11.1 9.8 7.2 5.3 2.6 1.2 0.3
Wofford 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.7 5.3 7.3 9.7 11.0 12.4 11.4 10.8 9.2 7.1 4.9 2.5 1.1 0.3
Chattanooga 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.4 6.4 8.9 10.1 11.8 12.1 11.8 9.8 8.4 5.6 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2
Western Carolina 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.1 8.7 10.2 11.6 12.1 11.5 10.6 8.0 6.1 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.0
Mercer 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.2 4.1 6.4 8.8 10.4 11.9 12.0 11.8 10.0 8.3 5.6 3.5 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1
VMI 6 - 12 1.2 3.8 7.2 10.3 12.5 12.7 12.3 11.4 9.3 7.1 4.9 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Samford 5 - 13 2.0 6.0 9.5 13.3 14.5 13.4 12.3 9.9 7.4 4.6 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 4 - 14 5.9 12.0 15.0 15.5 14.4 12.1 9.0 6.4 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Furman 41.5% 30.7 8.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
UNC Greensboro 39.2% 28.4 9.0 1.6 0.2 0.0
East Tennessee St. 10.9% 6.5 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
Wofford 10.5% 6.2 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Chattanooga 8.0% 4.5 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Western Carolina 5.0% 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Mercer 4.8% 2.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
VMI 0.7% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Samford 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
The Citadel 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Furman 36.2% 30.9% 5.4% 12   0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.2 2.1 3.1 4.7 8.5 7.0 3.8 1.6 0.3 63.8 7.8%
UNC Greensboro 35.7% 30.1% 5.7% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.9 4.8 9.2 7.5 3.5 1.1 0.3 64.3 8.1%
East Tennessee St. 10.7% 9.7% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 2.3 2.9 2.1 1.2 0.4 89.3 1.1%
Wofford 10.1% 9.3% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.9 2.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 89.9 0.8%
Chattanooga 8.7% 8.1% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.0 1.3 0.7 91.3 0.6%
Western Carolina 5.4% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.7 94.6 0.3%
Mercer 5.3% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 94.7 0.3%
VMI 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 99.0 0.0%
Samford 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Furman 36.2% 2.0% 35.2% 11.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
UNC Greensboro 35.7% 2.4% 34.5% 11.3% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 10.7% 0.8% 10.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wofford 10.1% 0.6% 9.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chattanooga 8.7% 0.6% 8.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Carolina 5.4% 0.6% 5.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 5.3% 0.5% 5.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
VMI 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Samford 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
The Citadel 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.3 0.3 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.1 0.8 88.7 10.4 0.1
2nd Round 27.9% 0.3 72.1 26.9 1.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.8 0.1
Elite Eight 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1