Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22

Last Updated: Jan 24, 2021
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com


View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 87.7% 12.3% 100.0%
Baylor Auto 100.0% 55.3% 44.7% 100.0%
Michigan Auto 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 100.0%
Alabama Auto 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 100.0%
Iowa At-Large 99.7% 22.5% 77.2% 99.6%
Houston Auto 100.0% 58.4% 41.6% 99.9%
Villanova Auto 99.5% 39.0% 60.5% 99.2%
Texas At-Large 99.7% 12.3% 87.4% 99.7%
Virginia Auto 98.8% 30.6% 68.2% 98.2%
Illinois At-Large 97.1% 15.4% 81.8% 96.6%
Florida St. At-Large 97.9% 25.7% 72.2% 97.2%
Ohio St. At-Large 97.4% 8.8% 88.5% 97.1%
Wisconsin At-Large 96.3% 11.0% 85.4% 95.9%
West Virginia At-Large 94.6% 7.3% 87.3% 94.2%
Texas Tech At-Large 93.7% 8.2% 85.4% 93.1%
Kansas At-Large 94.7% 8.0% 86.7% 94.2%
Tennessee At-Large 94.5% 17.9% 76.6% 93.3%
Missouri At-Large 97.4% 8.4% 89.0% 97.2%
Creighton At-Large 94.1% 26.1% 68.0% 92.0%
Colorado Auto 95.4% 26.3% 69.1% 93.7%
Oklahoma At-Large 81.4% 6.3% 75.1% 80.2%
USC At-Large 93.6% 22.5% 71.1% 91.8%
Purdue At-Large 88.1% 4.2% 83.8% 87.5%
Florida At-Large 83.6% 14.6% 69.0% 80.8%
UCLA At-Large 91.7% 19.5% 72.2% 89.7%
Minnesota At-Large 84.4% 3.1% 81.3% 83.9%
BYU At-Large 96.4% 8.5% 87.9% 96.1%
Indiana At-Large 75.6% 4.6% 71.1% 74.5%
Louisville At-Large 80.5% 7.3% 73.2% 79.0%
Boise St. Auto 90.4% 30.6% 59.8% 86.1%
Oregon At-Large 75.3% 15.9% 59.4% 70.7%
LSU At-Large 76.6% 7.3% 69.2% 74.7%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Arkansas At-Large 76.5% 7.3% 69.2% 74.7%
Connecticut At-Large 70.6% 12.0% 58.5% 66.6%
North Carolina At-Large 72.3% 8.8% 63.5% 69.6%
Oklahoma St. At-Large 72.6% 2.4% 70.2% 71.9%
10  Virginia Tech At-Large 67.5% 4.6% 62.9% 65.9%
10  Clemson At-Large 69.5% 3.0% 66.6% 68.6%
10  Maryland At-Large 58.2% 1.6% 56.6% 57.6%
10  Saint Louis Auto 68.4% 21.7% 46.6% 59.6%
11  Xavier At-Large 68.4% 5.2% 63.2% 66.7%
11  San Diego St. At-Large 70.0% 24.1% 45.9% 60.5%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 56.4% 7.4% 49.1% 53.0%
11  Syracuse At-Large 54.6% 5.4% 49.2% 52.0%
11  Stanford At-Large 52.9% 9.0% 43.9% 48.2%
12  Utah St. At-Large 60.9% 26.5% 34.3% 46.7%
12  St. Bonaventure At-Large 55.7% 17.5% 38.2% 46.3%
12  Loyola Chicago Auto 67.6% 43.9% 23.7% 42.2%
12  Western Kentucky Auto 36.6% 23.6% 13.0% 17.1%
12  Toledo Auto 36.6% 30.8% 5.9% 8.5%
13  Winthrop Auto 61.8% 60.3% 1.5% 3.8%
13  Colgate Auto 60.2% 60.1% 0.1% 0.3%
13  Furman Auto 30.2% 29.5% 0.7% 1.0%
13  Wright St. Auto 69.8% 69.6% 0.1% 0.4%
14  UC Santa Barbara Auto 41.0% 40.5% 0.5% 0.8%
14  Belmont Auto 56.9% 56.7% 0.2% 0.5%
14  South Dakota St. Auto 45.2% 45.1% 0.1% 0.2%
14  Siena Auto 28.8% 28.8% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Abilene Christian Auto 40.8% 40.8% 0.0% 0.0%
15  Bryant Auto 35.0% 35.0%
15  Liberty Auto 56.3% 56.3%
15  Northeastern Auto 29.0% 28.9% 0.0% 0.0%
16  Vermont Auto 52.7% 52.7%
16  Texas St. Auto 38.9% 38.9%
16  New Mexico St. Auto 42.2% 42.2%
16  Montana St. Auto 50.7% 50.7%
16  NC Central Auto 26.7% 26.7%
16  Prairie View Auto 29.0% 29.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Minnesota 84.4% 3.1% 81.3% 83.9%
Florida 83.6% 14.6% 69.0% 80.8%
Oklahoma 81.4% 6.3% 75.1% 80.2%
Louisville 80.5% 7.3% 73.2% 79.0%
LSU 76.6% 7.3% 69.2% 74.7%
Arkansas 76.5% 7.3% 69.2% 74.7%
Indiana 75.6% 4.6% 71.1% 74.5%
Oklahoma St. 72.6% 2.4% 70.2% 71.9%
Oregon 75.3% 15.9% 59.4% 70.7%
North Carolina 72.3% 8.8% 63.5% 69.6%
Clemson 69.5% 3.0% 66.6% 68.6%
Xavier 68.4% 5.2% 63.2% 66.7%
Connecticut 70.6% 12.0% 58.5% 66.6%
Virginia Tech 67.5% 4.6% 62.9% 65.9%
San Diego St. 70.0% 24.1% 45.9% 60.5%
Maryland 58.2% 1.6% 56.6% 57.6%
Seton Hall 56.4% 7.4% 49.1% 53.0%
Syracuse 54.6% 5.4% 49.2% 52.0%
Stanford 52.9% 9.0% 43.9% 48.2%
Utah St. 60.9% 26.5% 34.3% 46.7%
St. Bonaventure 55.7% 17.5% 38.2% 46.3%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Pittsburgh 47.0% 2.9% 44.1% 45.4%
Drake 62.1% 35.0% 27.2% 41.8%
Richmond 49.8% 14.7% 35.1% 41.1%
Georgia Tech 44.2% 5.2% 39.0% 41.1%
SMU 48.2% 12.8% 35.4% 40.6%
Rutgers 33.0% 1.5% 31.5% 32.0%
Colorado St. 38.8% 12.9% 25.9% 29.7%
Providence 33.0% 4.7% 28.3% 29.7%
Michigan St. 29.0% 1.3% 27.7% 28.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 35.7% 11.3% 24.4% 27.5%
Wichita St. 32.4% 7.6% 24.8% 26.8%
Penn St. 25.2% 1.0% 24.2% 24.5%
Duke 21.4% 4.2% 17.2% 18.0%
St. Mary's 19.2% 1.6% 17.6% 17.9%
Marquette 16.5% 2.7% 13.7% 14.1%
Mississippi 16.1% 2.6% 13.5% 13.8%
Memphis 20.9% 9.2% 11.7% 12.9%
Tulsa 14.8% 4.2% 10.6% 11.1%
Kentucky 14.7% 4.7% 10.0% 10.5%
Mississippi St. 7.7% 1.3% 6.3% 6.4%
North Carolina St. 7.3% 1.2% 6.2% 6.2%
Rhode Island 14.8% 9.2% 5.5% 6.1%
Marshall 25.9% 21.8% 4.1% 5.3%
Dayton 10.4% 5.7% 4.7% 5.0%
Utah 6.6% 2.5% 4.1% 4.2%
Arizona St. 6.3% 2.7% 3.6% 3.7%
South Carolina 4.2% 0.6% 3.6% 3.6%
Georgia 3.7% 0.5% 3.2% 3.2%
San Francisco 4.4% 1.4% 3.1% 3.1%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
TCU 3.2% 0.1% 3.1% 3.1%
Davidson 15.1% 12.7% 2.4% 2.8%
Central Florida 4.6% 1.9% 2.7% 2.7%
Georgia St. 2.9% 0.3% 2.6% 2.6%
Northwestern 2.7% 0.2% 2.5% 2.5%
Missouri St. 11.8% 9.6% 2.3% 2.5%
St. John's 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.1%
Cincinnati 4.8% 3.1% 1.7% 1.8%
South Florida 3.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3%
UAB 17.5% 16.5% 1.0% 1.2%
Kent St. 19.3% 18.4% 0.9% 1.1%
Massachusetts 5.5% 4.5% 1.0% 1.1%
Notre Dame 1.6% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%
Miami (FL) 1.4% 0.4% 1.0% 1.0%
Butler 2.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%
Wofford 21.0% 20.2% 0.8% 1.0%
Oregon St. 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Bradley 5.3% 4.6% 0.7% 0.7%
Pacific 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6%
UC Irvine 32.2% 31.9% 0.3% 0.5%
Akron 13.0% 12.6% 0.4% 0.5%
North Texas 14.7% 14.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Wake Forest 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Temple 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%
Texas A&M 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Louisiana Tech 14.1% 13.8% 0.3% 0.3%
East Carolina 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
DePaul 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%
Indiana St. 3.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.2%
UNC Greensboro 19.0% 18.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
East Tennessee St. 15.8% 15.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Santa Clara 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Nevada 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Navy 14.5% 14.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Washington St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Mercer 7.9% 7.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Georgetown 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bowling Green 7.7% 7.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Pepperdine 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Buffalo 14.6% 14.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Weber St. 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1%
UNLV 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Iowa St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Old Dominion 2.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Nebraska 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Washington 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Vanderbilt 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Ohio 8.5% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 34.8% 34.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Northern Iowa 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%