Preseason Rankings
Southland
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
136 Stephen F. Austin 32.5%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 7 13 - 4 +1.7      +0.4 161 +1.4 126 75.7 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
173 Abilene Christian 21.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 7 11 - 5 -0.7      -1.4 207 +0.7 148 68.7 181 0.0 1 0.0 1
234 Nicholls St. 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 11 10 - 6 -4.6      -1.5 209 -3.1 265 70.2 136 0.0 1 0.0 1
236 Lamar 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 10 - 7 -4.6      -3.5 272 -1.2 208 71.0 116 0.0 1 0.0 1
246 Sam Houston St. 6.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 13 8 - 8 -5.2      -2.0 234 -3.2 269 74.4 52 0.0 1 0.0 1
283 Northwestern St. 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 15 9 - 7 -6.9      -2.0 230 -5.0 306 76.8 30 0.0 1 0.0 1
285 Central Arkansas 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 16 7 - 9 -7.0      -1.4 208 -5.6 319 79.7 13 0.0 1 0.0 1
303 TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 14 7 - 9 -8.3      -5.2 311 -3.1 264 64.4 290 0.0 1 0.0 1
306 McNeese St. 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 9 8 - 8 -8.4      -1.3 205 -7.2 333 70.1 138 0.0 1 0.0 1
312 New Orleans 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 17 7 - 9 -9.2      -2.8 252 -6.4 327 71.9 92 0.0 1 0.0 1
319 SE Louisiana 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 20 6 - 12 -10.5      -4.8 303 -5.7 320 76.0 38 0.0 1 0.0 1
336 Incarnate Word 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 17 4 - 12 -14.2      -6.6 326 -7.6 337 65.1 273 0.0 1 0.0 1
339 Houston Baptist 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 18 4 - 12 -14.8      -2.6 248 -12.2 347 86.0 2 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Stephen F. Austin 2.3 46.7 18.1 10.4 6.6 4.6 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 3.4 24.5 21.1 15.8 11.9 8.0 6.2 4.6 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2
Nicholls St. 4.9 10.2 16.1 14.5 12.0 10.3 8.3 7.3 6.5 5.4 4.2 2.7 1.8 0.7
Lamar 4.8 12.6 13.9 12.6 11.7 10.9 9.5 8.6 6.9 5.0 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.6
Sam Houston St. 6.2 5.8 8.2 9.7 10.6 10.2 10.4 9.8 9.1 8.9 6.5 5.4 3.4 1.9
Northwestern St. 6.0 5.6 8.9 11.1 11.2 11.1 10.5 9.7 8.7 7.2 6.1 4.6 3.4 2.0
Central Arkansas 7.4 2.8 5.0 6.5 7.8 8.3 9.1 9.4 10.4 10.5 10.3 9.3 7.1 3.4
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.2 2.7 4.7 6.6 7.7 9.5 10.4 10.9 10.6 9.9 9.3 8.0 5.7 4.0
McNeese St. 6.4 4.3 9.0 9.7 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.3 8.9 8.3 7.0 5.7 4.8 3.1
New Orleans 7.7 2.0 4.2 5.6 7.4 8.1 9.3 9.7 10.4 10.7 10.1 9.6 8.3 4.6
SE Louisiana 8.5 1.6 3.2 4.3 5.3 5.8 7.1 8.3 9.1 10.0 11.3 12.8 13.2 7.9
Incarnate Word 10.3 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.8 6.5 8.8 12.1 15.7 18.9 22.6
Houston Baptist 10.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.7 7.7 11.4 15.8 19.7 25.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Stephen F. Austin 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.6 9.6 12.0 14.8 15.9 14.7 10.6
Abilene Christian 11 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.1 6.3 9.3 11.6 13.9 14.6 13.8 11.6 7.7 2.7
Nicholls St. 10 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.0 8.0 9.9 11.7 12.8 12.8 11.4 9.3 5.7 3.2 1.1
Lamar 10 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.6 6.0 8.5 10.9 12.4 13.0 12.1 10.6 8.5 5.7 3.4 1.4
Sam Houston St. 8 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.6 7.1 9.8 11.4 12.2 12.7 12.0 9.9 7.1 4.6 2.5 0.9 0.2
Northwestern St. 9 - 7 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.9 6.5 9.0 10.9 12.8 12.3 12.5 10.6 8.3 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.2
Central Arkansas 7 - 9 0.3 1.6 3.2 5.7 7.9 10.3 11.9 12.8 12.1 10.4 8.9 6.6 4.2 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7 - 9 0.2 1.0 2.2 4.5 7.7 9.8 12.2 12.9 13.0 11.9 9.6 6.7 4.3 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.1
McNeese St. 8 - 8 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.7 5.3 7.6 9.4 11.2 12.0 11.9 11.3 9.0 7.2 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.3
New Orleans 7 - 9 0.3 1.5 3.6 6.0 8.9 10.9 12.3 13.0 12.1 10.6 7.8 6.0 3.8 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.1
SE Louisiana 6 - 10 1.0 3.6 6.8 9.3 10.9 12.7 11.5 11.9 9.4 7.7 5.9 3.9 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.1
Incarnate Word 4 - 12 3.5 8.5 13.0 15.2 15.1 13.0 10.7 8.0 5.5 3.8 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Houston Baptist 4 - 12 4.5 10.2 14.0 15.2 15.3 12.7 9.8 7.0 5.1 3.0 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Stephen F. Austin 46.7% 34.2 9.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 24.5% 15.0 7.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 10.2% 5.0 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lamar 12.6% 7.5 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 5.8% 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 5.6% 2.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7% 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
McNeese St. 4.3% 1.9 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
New Orleans 2.0% 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Stephen F. Austin 36.4% 36.3% 0.2% 16   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.3 6.2 9.0 9.5 7.7 63.6 0.3%
Abilene Christian 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.4 4.8 6.6 6.6 78.7 0.0%
Nicholls St. 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 5.6 91.2 0.0%
Lamar 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 5.0 90.5 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.9 93.5 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.1 95.5 0.0%
Central Arkansas 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 96.3 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 97.3 0.0%
McNeese St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.5 96.8 0.0%
New Orleans 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 98.0 0.0%
SE Louisiana 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 98.7 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Houston Baptist 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Stephen F. Austin 36.4% 3.7% 35.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 21.3% 3.1% 20.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 8.8% 3.7% 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 9.5% 3.1% 8.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 6.5% 1.6% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 4.5% 2.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 3.7% 1.2% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.7% 1.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 3.2% 1.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 89.6% 0.9 10.4 89.5 0.1
2nd Round 7.0% 0.1 93.0 7.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0