IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Colgate
Patriot League
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+1.5	#139
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.8	#180
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.4	#111

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.9	#199

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	31.0%	33.2%	17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.0	13.9	15.0

.500 or above	91.0%	94.3%	71.4%
.500 or above in Conference	93.4%	96.1%	76.7%
Conference Champion	60.8%	65.4%	32.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.4%	0.1%	1.8%

First Four	2.3%	2.2%	2.9%
First Round	30.1%	32.3%	16.6%
Second Round	3.6%	4.0%	1.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.9%	0.9%	0.4%
Elite Eight	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 85.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 3	2 - 2	2 - 3
Quad 4	12 - 2	14 - 5

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Jan 02, 2021	289	Army	W	80-68	86%
Jan 03, 2021	289	@ Army	W	77-71	69%
Jan 09, 2021	181	@ Boston University	L	71-72	48%
Jan 10, 2021	181	@ Boston University	L	71-72	48%
Jan 16, 2021	335	Holy Cross	W	83-65	94%
Jan 17, 2021	335	Holy Cross	W	83-65	94%
Jan 23, 2021	223	Bucknell	W	78-69	77%
Jan 24, 2021	223	Bucknell	W	78-69	76%
Jan 30, 2021	289	@ Army	W	77-71	68%
Jan 31, 2021	289	Army	W	80-68	83%
Feb 06, 2021	181	Boston University	W	75-69	68%
Feb 07, 2021	181	Boston University	W	75-69	66%
Feb 13, 2021	335	@ Holy Cross	W	80-68	84%
Feb 14, 2021	335	@ Holy Cross	W	80-68	83%
Feb 20, 2021	287	@ Lehigh	W	77-71	67%
Feb 21, 2021	287	Lehigh	W	80-68	83%
Projected Record						12 - 4	12 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Patriot League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.4	2.0	5.9	9.3	12.3	13.3	11.3	6.2		60.8	1st
2nd								0.0	0.3	2.0	4.4	5.1	4.2	2.5	1.1	0.2			19.8	2nd
3rd							0.0	0.2	1.4	3.3	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1					8.4	3rd
4th							0.1	0.9	2.1	1.2	0.3	0.0							4.6	4th
5th						0.0	0.5	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.0								2.7	5th
6th					0.0	0.2	0.9	0.5	0.1										1.6	6th
7th				0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.0											1.0	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.0												0.6	8th
9th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0													0.4	9th
10th		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														0.1	10th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	1.8	3.0	4.6	7.0	9.0	11.9	13.8	14.8	14.4	11.5	6.2			Total

Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	6.2		6.1	0.2
15-1	97.9%	11.3		10.6	0.7
14-2	92.4%	13.3		11.8	1.5	0.0
13-3	82.9%	12.3		10.0	2.2	0.1
12-4	67.6%	9.3		6.7	2.5	0.2	0.0
11-5	49.7%	5.9		2.9	2.4	0.5	0.0	0.0
10-6	21.9%	2.0		0.5	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0
9-7	5.3%	0.4		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	60.8%	60.8		48.6	10.3	1.5	0.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	6.2%		66.7%	65.8%	0.8%	10.9					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.9	0.3	0.0		2.1		2.5%
15-1	11.5%		53.9%	53.7%	0.1%	13.4											0.0	0.1	0.8	2.3	2.4	0.6	0.0	5.3		0.3%
14-2	14.4%		43.9%	43.9%		14.1													0.2	1.4	2.9	1.7	0.2	8.1
13-3	14.8%		36.9%	36.9%		14.6													0.0	0.4	1.8	2.6	0.7	9.4
12-4	13.8%		27.7%	27.7%		15.0														0.2	0.7	1.7	1.2	10.0
11-5	11.9%		21.0%	21.0%		15.4														0.0	0.2	1.0	1.3	9.4
10-6	9.0%		14.8%	14.8%		15.6														0.0	0.1	0.4	0.9	7.7
9-7	7.0%		9.1%	9.1%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.6	6.4
8-8	4.6%		7.3%	7.3%		16.0																0.0	0.3	4.2
7-9	3.0%		3.8%	3.8%		16.0																	0.1	2.8
6-10	1.8%		3.6%	3.6%		16.0																	0.1	1.7
5-11	0.9%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	0.9
4-12	0.6%		1.6%	1.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.6
3-13	0.2%																							0.2
2-14	0.1%																							0.1
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16

Total	100%		31.0%	30.9%	0.1%	14.0					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.7	1.9	5.2	8.5	8.0	5.4	69.0		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	4.1%	100.0%	10.9				1.2	2.8	5.4	3.7	4.6	8.0	7.6	14.9	20.8	22.2	8.4	0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	1.0%	1.1%	12.4												0.9	0.1		0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.8%	5.4%	12.0										1.0		2.0	2.3