IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Louisiana
Sun Belt
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-1.4	#185
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	76.3	#37
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.7	#149

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.0	#232

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.8%	7.1%	3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.2	13.1	13.8

.500 or above	51.6%	60.8%	32.5%
.500 or above in Conference	50.2%	55.6%	38.9%
Conference Champion	6.6%	8.1%	3.5%
Last Place in Conference	7.9%	6.0%	11.7%

First Four	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	5.7%	7.0%	3.1%
Second Round	0.9%	1.2%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 5	4 - 9
Quad 4	7 - 3	11 - 11

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 02, 2020	312	@ New Orleans	W	83-78	68%
Dec 12, 2020	109	Louisiana Tech	L	74-77	41%
Dec 15, 2020	312	New Orleans	W	86-75	84%
Dec 18, 2020	99	@ Virginia Commonwealth	L	71-81	20%
Jan 01, 2021	143	Texas St.	W	73-72	51%
Jan 02, 2021	143	Texas St.	W	73-72	51%
Jan 08, 2021	127	Arkansas Little Rock	L	79-80	48%
Jan 09, 2021	127	Arkansas Little Rock	L	79-80	48%
Jan 15, 2021	156	@ Texas Arlington	L	73-78	33%
Jan 16, 2021	156	@ Texas Arlington	L	73-78	34%
Jan 22, 2021	219	Arkansas St.	W	81-75	68%
Jan 23, 2021	219	Arkansas St.	W	81-75	67%
Jan 29, 2021	143	@ Texas St.	L	70-76	32%
Jan 30, 2021	143	@ Texas St.	L	70-76	32%
Feb 05, 2021	219	@ Arkansas St.	L	77-78	49%
Feb 06, 2021	219	@ Arkansas St.	L	77-78	49%
Feb 11, 2021	278	Louisiana Monroe	W	76-68	75%
Feb 13, 2021	278	@ Louisiana Monroe	W	73-71	57%
Feb 19, 2021	156	Texas Arlington	W	76-75	53%
Feb 20, 2021	156	Texas Arlington	W	76-75	55%
Feb 26, 2021	127	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	76-83	29%
Feb 27, 2021	127	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	76-83	29%
Projected Record						11 - 11	9 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Sun Belt Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.5	1.8	1.4	0.7	0.1		6.6	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.7	2.5	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.0			7.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.1	3.3	1.7	0.3	0.1					7.9	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.6	3.5	2.0	0.3	0.0						8.8	4th
5th								0.0	0.4	2.4	4.2	1.9	0.3	0.0							9.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.6	4.5	2.2	0.3	0.0								9.8	6th
7th							0.3	2.2	4.5	2.7	0.4	0.0									10.1	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	1.7	4.5	3.0	0.5	0.0										10.0	8th
9th				0.0	0.4	2.0	3.7	2.8	0.5	0.0											9.5	9th
10th			0.1	0.6	2.1	3.2	2.5	0.5	0.0												9.0	10th
11th	0.0	0.1	0.8	1.8	2.6	1.4	0.5	0.0													7.1	11th
12th	0.2	0.9	1.3	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0													4.4	12th

Total	0.2	1.0	2.2	3.5	5.7	7.1	8.8	10.2	11.1	10.5	9.8	8.2	7.4	5.3	3.8	2.6	1.6	0.7	0.1			Total

Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
17-1	96.1%	0.7		0.6	0.1
16-2	87.3%	1.4		1.1	0.3	0.0
15-3	69.9%	1.8		1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0
14-4	40.2%	1.5		0.7	0.6	0.2	0.0
13-5	15.1%	0.8		0.1	0.4	0.2	0.1
12-6	2.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1		0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0						0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	6.6%	6.6		3.8	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.1%		100.0%	100.0%		9.1				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
17-1	0.7%		95.1%	92.7%	2.4%	11.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.0		33.3%
16-2	1.6%		86.5%	83.0%	3.5%	12.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.2		20.7%
15-3	2.6%		65.2%	63.6%	1.6%	13.5											0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.9		4.4%
14-4	3.8%		33.9%	33.9%	0.1%	13.9											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0	2.5		0.1%
13-5	5.3%		10.2%	9.9%	0.3%	14.3													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	4.8		0.4%
12-6	7.4%		0.9%	0.9%		14.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.4
11-7	8.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.2
10-8	9.8%																							9.8
9-9	10.5%																							10.5
8-10	11.1%																							11.1
7-11	10.2%																							10.2
6-12	8.8%																							8.8
5-13	7.1%																							7.1
4-14	5.7%																							5.7
3-15	3.5%																							3.5
2-16	2.2%																							2.2
1-17	1.0%																							1.0
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.8%	5.7%	0.1%	13.2				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.8	1.8	1.8	0.8	0.1	94.2		0.1%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.8			4.3		39.1	28.3	23.9	4.3
Lose Out	0.0%